NBA 2016-2017 Predictions: Round 3

East:

2. Cavs over 1. Celtics in 6 games

-I oscillated between 5 and 6, but ended at 6 because the Cavs will be at home for game 6 instead of 5. I think Cleveland splits in Boston, gets both at home, then loses 5 before beating Boston in 6. Cleveland is just a far better team. Their three point shooting from every position is better than Boston, and Boston is going to get eviscerated on the boards. I love Horford in almost any scenario, but I honestly don’t know how he can be effective here like he was in the first two rounds. Unlike Gortat, Love and Thompson are mobile enough to follow him out to the perimeter, move their feet enough to stay with his drives, and the other will still be under the rim to rebound. I actually think IT will do okay because of the lack of rim protection for the Cavs, but Lebron is going to be guarded by Crowder and (gulp) Jaylen Brown who won’t be able to hold him. This is a better matchup for Isaiah though, because Avery will surely be on Kyrie and IT can hide maybe on Shumpert, Korver, etc. The Celtics 4 spot is going to get exposed though, and 5 games is well within reason. The Celtics only chance to win the series is that they are sharp while Cleveland got rusty (unlikely), and their bench kills Cleveland’s (possible). It also feels like Marcus Smart versus JR Smith ends in someone doing something stupid.

West:

1.  Warriors over 2. Spurs in 5 games

-I know game 1 already happened, but I had this before. I hate the NBA starting one round before all the games in the last happened. The Spurs had their chance, and both lost it and Kawhi. The Jedi Octopus is likely to miss game 2, which means >95% chance Golden State now blasts them off the court and takes command of the series. Golden State worked off its rust, and the scary part is Klay is due for some better games in a row. This could be a sweep, but I trust in Pop to get at least one, probably game 3. This is just too much for young folks like Simmons and Anderson to really hang with each game, or Manu to keep up productive minutes. Patty Mills is also going to get taken advantage of. Pop, I love Gasol too, but I don’t think he can play in this series if you want a chance to win.

Nothing really has changed long term. 538 has the Dubs at 84% to win the title, and even if Iggy is more hurt than a game to game status I’d say that’s right. It’s almost unfair because the playoffs are getting good with good ends to SA-HOU and WAS-BOS, but likely Golden State will walk away with the title fairly easily.