Super Bowl Predictions
My pick was obviously Packers -3 and the game to go over 45. However, Vegas will not take in 100 million dollars this weekend just from those basic results. Prop bets are new big rage (see Bill Simmons’ podcast from Monday and Tuesday for full coverage). I will outline a few of my favorites (and most ridiculous) here. Some are logical, and some defy reason. Let’s have some fun.
While I like the Pack and over, I love ensuring those picks. Because the game will be close and I am guaranteeing one big play passing and one defensive TD or near TD, I love teasing the game. You can get Pack +3.5 and the over at 38.5 or at least Pack +3 and over 39, that is an awesome pick.
I love three different Rodgers predictions:
First, Rodgers completions -3.5 over Ben completions – Easy pickings. Ben completed 9 passes in his first Super Bowl and 19 in his second. I know, he’s gotten better since the first one, but he’s not substantially better than the 08 SB and the defense he is going against is better this time around. Ben isn’t that good in big games, and he also gets more yardage than completions. Rodgers will throw it more, and throw it short. He will complete at least 25 passes, win or loss. Ben may not get to 19 again.
Second, Rodgers over 275.5 yards – Another good pick. This is not a low total anymore, especially for a team that has nearly 100 receiving yard built into the offense with quick hits, screens, and tight 3 yard slants. Add Rodgers’ skill, the Steelers average pass defense, and the fact that Kurt Warner ripped them up in the Super Bowl two years ago, and this is a sure thing.
Three, Rodgers over 1.5 TD passes – I saw he is good for at least two. The only way this doesn’t happen is if he runs one in and Starks or Kuhn steals a short one on him. Even then, there is a good chance he throws two.
Brett Favre mentions in the broadcast is over 2.5 times – I mean, he was mentioned 17 times a minute throughout the season weeks after the Vikings were eliminated, and Green Bay is in the Super Bowl. Lock it up.
Hines Ward under 3.5 catches – At first, this looks insane. Just a few years ago, he was MVP of the Super Bowl. His yardage has always been good but what he has always been good for is 5-6 catches, every game. However, what we need to consider is this: Hines Ward hasn’t been good for a while. He hasn’t had a game over 3 catches versus an over .500 team in the last dozen games versus those opponents. He cannot really separate. Add in the fact Ben is in for about a 20 completion ceiling whether he has a good or bad game, and this doesn’t look good for Ward.
Christina Aguilera’s national anthem time under 2:00 – Lock it up. Easy. Should be like 1:48, 1:53 tops. I’m not kidding.
Packers first half points over 12 – This should be pretty good, but teams start slowly in the Super Bowl. However, here is the logic. First, I think they score 27-28 points minimum overall, so this is a safe half of that. Also, if PIT wins the toss, they are kicking. If GB wins the toss, they may take it. So, the Packers may well have an extra possession in the first half. Also, 12 points is just 2-3 scores, and they can get that. I also trust their FG kicker, so this looks really good.
Packers total points over 23.5 – See the argument for above, but 4-5 scores would get this, and they’ll easily have the chance for that. I just don’t see them with less than 24 even in a bad loss, so this one is good.
Heath Miller over 39.5 yards – Bank on it. Heath Miller roasted them for over 100 yards last year, and the Packers have not been good against TEs this year. Ben will be blitzed and in trouble and will check down a lot. 3 catches minimum, and one of those will get broken open.
Jerry Jones being shown more than 2.5 times – Not only will they talk about him owning the stadium, but we have chances of seeing him when they talk about: A. The roof being closed or open, B. The Cowboys not being in this game when they talked about it, C. The big screen getting hit by a punt, and D. Talk of the best franchises ever, a conversation that includes the Cowboys. That’s 5 times and we need 3. Yes we can!
Aaron Rodgers 9 to 5 to win MVP – Normally I don’t like MVP picks because so much can happen and you essentially have to get the team right as well. However, if you take GB -3, you have to win and cover and you still get -110 on the deal. However, if you think GB is going to win, you know there is about a 2/3s chance that Rodgers will get the MVP. This way, they don’t have to cover, and you get +180 odds. That makes mathematical sense.
Ben over .5 interceptions – This is virtual lock considering his history, gunslinger mentality, and ball hawking secondary of the
Time left when Gatorade dump is given under 30 seconds left – This should be a close game. If either team is within 14 points of each other with under a minute, Rodgers and Ben are scrappy, competitive, and mobile enough to bring this down to the wire. Thus, the dump will be late.
I am not going to pick the Gatorade color, but the prohibitive favorite is yellow.
Greg Jennings over 5 Receptions – Well, I have zero faith in Ike Taylor. Also, Rodgers is airing it about 30-35 times minimum. Jennings has been playing well. Slants and quick hits are in the game plan and Jennings won't be phased by the pressure. I see an 8 for 110 and a TD, so I think over 5 receptions is in the bank.
New CBA -2.5 weeks over Roger Goodell – Okay, hear me out. Goodell is acting like he tells himself Keith Hernandez every day. He said today he wants it done in the next 3-4 weeks. If it hasn't been done yet and doesn't get done this week, the attention and pressure will fade as we move away from the Super Bowl until the draft approaches and the deadline nears. I just don't see this getting done in February. I'd take March, but I don't know about that either.
James Starks under 61 yards rushing – The Steelers are so good against running backs, I just don't see this happening. Remember Shaun Alexander in 05 and Tim Hightower in 08 versus the Steelers? Me neither. Jackson, being the veteran and pass receiving back, might be in more than you think. Take the under.
Rashard Mendenhall under 77 yards rushing – This is a lock because the Packers play such good defense. Mendenhall hasn’t cracked this in a while and shouldn’t do so here.
Uses of the word dynasty in connection with the Steelers of '05 to '11 over 2.5 – We just love that word. So they will do it. 3 championships in 5 years would be really good, but it would be the same as the Spurs. It was more of a dominant decade than a dynasty. But you know we'll talk about it, especially in the Steelers are leading in the second half. Of course, I don’t that will happen, but they will still talk about it.
Good luck, and enjoy the game.
BLISS
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