Super Bowl Predictions

Super Bowl

The Back Story

“So, I think we get two weeks of ‘Rodgers the golden boy from Cali’ vs. ‘Ben the ruffian who could be in jail seeking redemption’ storylines. Because hey, the NFL is about quarterbacks, right?”

That is what I wrote before the Conference Championships. I got the headlines right. Okay, so a little less Aaron Rodgers and little more CBA. But this is still what is about.

And a lot about the zone blitz. Apparently America wasn’t up to snuff on that particular defense. Well, don’t worry ESPN, we are now.

So here we are. The Super Bowl. Number 45. Big Ben’s 3^rd. Aaron Rodger’s 1^st. The team with the most Lombardi trophies versus the team with the 1^st. Two huge national (even international) fan bases. If one was on the West Coast, we might have it all.

We have an electric offense with a big play defense going against a tough offense that grinds out third downs with a stout, hard hitting defense. Two completely different coaches (old versus young, big versus small, Bill Walsh vs. Marty Schottenheimer coaching trees, great at scheming/great at in game player management) will square off. The winner will make themselves a legend in their respective city.

The teams have some tremendous similarities. One is the history I already spoke of. Another is the zone blitz with both defenses directed by elder statesmen coordinators. Both defenses have dynamic, rushing linebackers and big play guys in the secondary. Both have active QBs who can buy time and laser throws downfield. Both have dynamic young lead receivers and cagey old veteran receivers who have seen everything possible.

Their seasons went so differently. Green Bay started strong, rolling along. Pittsburgh started looking a 6 game suspension to their star QB in the face. Green Bay got severely hurt in weeks 3-6 with the loss of Finley, Barnett, and so many others. Pittsburgh started rolling in that time frame. Late in the season Pittsburgh was the one that got hit with injuries, especially to the offensive line. Green Bay looked to finally figure it out at the end of the season. They took down a dangerous Philly team, the best team in their conference in Atlanta, and division champ Chicago. Pittsburgh avoided New England but beat their clone and arch nemesis in Baltimore and a similarly tough team in the Jets. They both deserve to be here.

So here we are. We have an extremely strong battle coming up.

The Matchups

There are several key matchups. Some people are talking about, some people are not.

GB LBs versus PIT OTs:

-This one, people are talking about. Clay Matthews is going to terrorize whoever gets to play LT and RT for Pittsburgh this week. When Max Starks is your best lineman and elder statesmen, that is not a good sign. GB should exploit this advantage, and Heath Miller is too important to the passing game to keep in.

ADVANTAGE: GB

PIT LBs versus GB OTs:

-Oh, people were forgetting this one. True, GB’s line is much better than it was 18 months ago. But they still have rookies going against sack artist Woodley (averaging 1+ sacks a game in his playoff career) and former DPOY James Harrison. GB has done okay, mainly due to Rodger’s great mobility. GB will also leave a TE to block more often. However, Pittsburgh will get pressure. The question is, will Rodgers beat the rush?

ADVANTAGE: PIT slightly

PIT WRs versus GB secondary:

-The PIT WRs are a one trick pony. Mike Wallace can get deep, and that’s about it. The rest of them require Ben to move around to really get open. The GB secondary is awesome. Charles Woodson is tough and while he has slowed down, so has Hines Ward. Ward doesn’t have a good game against an above .500 team in a long time. Tramon Williams with Nick Collins over the top should negate Wallace.

ADVANTAGE: GB, big time

PIT TEs (Heath Miller specifically) versus GB LBs/Nick Collins:

-Strange one no one is talking about this. Heath Miller killed them last year in their meeting with other 100 yards. GB has been terrible in games this season versus TEs. Hawk and Barnett couldn’t really cover them and Barnett is gone. Ben struggles in big games, and the GB corners are so good, Miller will be vital to keeping drives alive. Collins won’t be able to move over due to assignments to go over the top on Wallace, unless they reroute that assignment.

ADVANTAGE: PIT, significant

GB Receivers vs. PIT Secondary:

-I am going to group the TEs with the WRs. The linebackers are so good for PIT GB will keep a TE a lot and otherwise they probably won’t have a ton of impact. The key here is that the WRs are so much better than the PIT corners Greg Jennings can beat Ike on slants, posts, and go routes. Donald Driver will kill Bryant McFadden on short slants, especially as McFadden plays SO far back (there is a great segment on the BS Report this week about this, Simmons discussed in depth with a guest speaker). Driver could have a huge game just catching 5-6 yard slants when the Steelers blitz.

ADVANTAGE: GB, big time

Rashard Mendenhall vs. GB run defense:

-Mendenhall is a good back, but hasn’t run well lately. He has had tough defenses (BAL, NYJ), but now he’s playing GB’s run defense which has been pretty great themselves. He has enough skill to grind out some tough first downs, but that is about it.

ADVANTAGE: even

James Starks vs. PIT run defense:

-I am not going to waste my words or time. J. Starks is an unestablished rookie and PIT is awesome. GB should just throw 50 times.

ADVANTAGE: PIT, big time

BJ Raji vs. whoever is playing center for PIT:

-It doesn’t matter who plays. If it is Pouncey (it shouldn’t be, he’d be playing really hurt and that won’t help anyone) then Raji will kill him. If it is the backup, Raji will be too much for him even with the practice this week.

ADVANTAGE: GB, big time

Mason Crosby vs. Shaun Suisham:

-Not even close. PIT had to cut their kicker midseason. Suisham is okay, but his range is limited. Crosby is a vet, comfortable in the system, and has great range. In what is projected to be a 3 point game of equally talented teams with great defenses, this is important. Crosby may not win it for the Pack, but Suisham could easily lose it for the Steelers.

ADVANTAGE: GB

Toughness:

-PIT wins this battle but it is not that extreme. GB has taken its hits and gotten up just as well as the Steelers, Rodgers most of all. They match PIT’s relatively rare quality of having tough guys at corner and WR. However, PIT is legendary for its toughness. And that helps in such a big game with a layoff.

ADVANTAGE: PIT

Experience:

-This is something GB cannot come close to matching. PIT has won 2 Superbowls and has 15 more players with SB experience than GB. GB has a lot of playoff experience, but it still matters. These two weeks are so different than normal. PIT knows how to deal with it. Tomlin knows. And Ben, despite playing badly in Super Bowls, has won two and that is huge.

ADVANTAGE: PIT

What each team would need to win:

The Steelers would need an above average game from Ben to win, and I haven’t seen it yet late in the playoffs. A defensive big sack or turnover along with a Mike Wallace game breaker would be necessary as well. Hines needs to have a productive 5 for 60 night. And Troy Polamalu needs to have a big game changing play. Something productive out of Aaron Smith would be good too.

If the Packers win, it will be a well defended effort where they make Ben try to beat them in the air, causing him to make a mistake or two. Rodgers will have an efficient 25 of 36 game for 260 and 2 TDs with minimal mistakes, and one big rushing first down/short TD. Woodson needs to stay away from penalties. Raji/Matthews need to combine for 2 sacks and a big backfield play. And the Jennings/Driver combination needs to combine for 6-7 first downs and one big play.

Compare those two scenarios. Frankly, which one is more likely and easier to happen? Yeah, that’s what I thought too.

The Pick:

I went 2-0 last week, so let’s see if I can continue this roll.

Packers -3 over Steelers, 30-21

-I think Rodgers manages to have a very productive if not explosive day. GB slants and quick hits the Steelers to death. The Steelers don’t cover that well. I think the Packers score early (though not repeatedly), and the Steelers make an error (INT or missed FG) that gives the Packers back the ball. They then sustain a long drive and put up a two score lead. Green Bay tees off on Big Ben, and dices them to death on offense. Much like the Patriots-Steelers game from early this year, the Steelers will come back and score late to make it look like a game, but it won’t matter in the final result or change what was the tempo of the game. 

A few of the matchups (GB LBs on PIT OL and GB secondary on PIT WRs) won me over. That also got me to think this game will go over the prescribed 45 points. GB will score at least once in a big play, and between the two defenses there will be one big INT/Sack fumble play happen, probably for a TD. With those two TDs in hand, and a probable late flurry of points late, this game should be a decently safe over.

Record last week:

Straight up: 2-0

Against the Spread: 2-0

Record this year:

Straight up: 137-55

Against the Spread: 111-92

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 255-133
Against the Spread: 211-178

BLISS

Up tomorrow: My favorite predictions for weird statistical SB props.