Last year, I set out on an odyssey to rank the top 32 players in the NBA. Apparently I forgot there are only 30 teams. I spend too much time writing about the NFL.
I love this idea, so I am bringing it back and making it a yearly project. Like Bill Simmons’ yearly trade value column, it is a good marker as to what that year was like. However, this column deals with a significantly different concept. This is a projection, based on who a player is now and logical thought to become in the future. The team and geographic location is equalized in this exercise as we are picking as if we were starting with a totally new set of teams in a different place, but with the current NBA population.
Rules:
1. Any current NBA player is eligible.
2. Salary doesn’t matter. All the players would get max level contracts under a similar CBA to what is in place now. The old contracts wouldn’t matter. Technically, you could consider their motivation level based on past income, but for the purposes of this column, we will not consider this factor much.
3. Minor injuries don’t matter as this would start about two months from now. Things like Durant’s shoulder, DWill’s wrist, Kobe’s ankle, and Perkin’s knee don’t count because presumably with two months of basketball inactivity they would be 100% or close. Long term injuries like ACLs, Brandon Roy’s knee, and Chris Paul’s concussion (yes, concussions don’t go away, the effects stay forever in some way) count.
4. Assume you are getting the player for the next 5 years. The lesson of this is, of course, that the age (and games logged) of the player matters.
One of the things I immediately think about when doing this list is the synergy between talent, skill, and winning history. Some of Kobe’s winning is the team and set up in LA, but you cannot doubt some of it is his person and something almost esoteric about it. He’d win in several situations to at least some degree.
The same is true of injuries, at least in my estimation. I don’t think it would have mattered if Greg Oden was in Seattle, Oklahoma City, or London, he would have gotten hurt. But, you could disagree.
I also think about position. Centers that are defensive and score almost don't exist. Pass first point guards that can drive, dish and lead while defending are rare. Scoring wings are not really rare.
Other things to think about who include marketing, personality, coachability, and basketball IQ.
This year I am making one drastic change: I am not doing this by myself. One of the first people to read this madness last year was my friend Vishal. And he might be the only person as obsessive as me to actually do this exercise. So, we went back and forth on picks, including some great digs at each other, to put together this list.
So, after endless hours of consideration and contemplation (along with Facebook messages and gchats) here is our list. And our number one pick should raise at least a few eyebrows.
Vishal:
It is only proper that we pay tribute to those who might have had a chance to make the cut but, ultimately, were not up to snuff this time around. Similarly, I’ll also examine last year’s list and discuss the picks Bliss knocked out of the park, the ones he bombed, and the players who were mentioned last year but did not even get consideration this year. So without further ado, here we go!
First up, we have the one and only Yao Ming (also known as the leading all-star vote-getter for the better part of the last decade). He’s a one man money-making machine for the NBA and its global machinations, and let’s not forget that Yao’s a pretty fantastic basketball player when healthy. However, the sheer number of injuries he’s gone through has cast serious doubts in most people’s minds as to whether he’ll ever be able to play a full game’s complement of minutes ever again, let alone an entire season.
Next up is Tracy McGrady, Yao’s old partner-in-crime and master of the first round playoff exit. Like Jeff Van Gundy said earlier this year, the game comes all too easy for T-Mac, and instead of capitalizing on his top-tier potential, he was unfortunately unwilling to put in the time to improve his game and his body over the course of his career. With his injuries and general lack of discipline today, T-Mac is pretty much an afterthought in the teambuilding picture.
While we’re on the subject of stars turning into busts, let’s talk about Agent Zero. Hibachi was without a doubt one of the most entertaining players in the league in recent years, and - I might be in the minority here- I blame the NBA (for setting him up as the fool) as much as I blame Gilbert (for being a moron) for the whole guns in the locker room thing. But he’s sadly had one too many knee injuries to ever recapture his old form. I give Orlando credit for taking a risk and trading for Arenas and his massive contract, they need to prepare themselves for salary cap hell the next couple of years (and for life without Dwight, but that’s a whole ‘nother story).
Now on to the old guys. Jason Kidd is going to be a first ballot HOF candidate, and even though he’s done a great job of reinventing himself and his game (who ever thought Jason Kidd would have the most 3s on a team with Jason Terry, Peja, and Dirk on it?), he’s already publicly announced he’s contemplating retirement. Elton Brand has done well to recover from his torn Achilles tendon and is contributing to a surprisingly competent Philadelphia team, but he’s not the same franchise-cornerstone type player anymore either. Vince Carter deserves a mention for being so darn entertaining in his prime, but he hasn’t been Half-Man Half-Amazing in a long time. Michael Redd is pretty much regarded as a lost case with his lengthy injury history, but the ex-Olympian sniper gets some respect from me for even attempting another comeback, regardless of how much he plays this season, after that last trip to the IR list. It may have been a horrible contract Milwaukee fans (believe me, I know- I’m a Knicks fan), but just like Allan Houston, the guy is genuinely loyal to his franchise and will try to earn his money instead of just sitting at home.
Stephen Jackson, Lamar Odom, and Chauncey Billups are still chugging along and are integral pieces for their respective teams right now, but they won’t be sustaining this level of performance three years from now. Boom Dizzle could be placed with the previous trio, but it’s hard for me to do so when he only plays well if he feels like he has a winning team (and comes into training camp out of shape every year).
Speaking of old guys, here’s the obligatory Greg Oden mention. Yup, that’s all you get until he shows us he can stay on the court.
And here’s one for Ricky Rubio. Sorry David Khan, get him to play in the NBA and then I’ll let you defend your draft strategy in 2009 (Bliss note: Khan had a draft strategy in 2009?).
Before I continue, to all you fans of the good but not (yet) great players in the NBA: sorry. Both Bliss and I enjoy watching guys like Gortat, Lawson, Scola, Matthews, and Fields, but there’s just not enough room for everyone we like. They are not team builders, and don’t really sell tickets either.
Bliss, please don’t ask me to make a case for Hedo. He’s had one season (07-08) where he even sniffed upper echelon production, and that’s only because he had the luxury of playing with Dwight. Maybe he’d be in the discussion if you had a really cheap owner with a team in a Turkish neighborhood who only cared about selling tickets, but if drawing a certain fan base to sell tickets to is your concern, then you can also make a case for Omri Casspi and Jeremy Lin (and as much as I like those two players, that comparison should show how highly I regard Hedo as a player).
Lastly, let’s consider last year’s rankings. First of all, D-Will was easily the right call for first choice franchise cornerstone. And I can respect Melo at 2nd, but Bliss knows which SF I would’ve taken at that spot (hint: it’s the same player I’m taking this year at 2nd). Dwight Howard was easily the best choice to round out the top-3, and his offensive improvement this year attests to that. Putting Iguodala, Rose, Horford, LaMarcus, and Rudy in the top 32 were all solid moves, and although he’s thankfully higher on Monta this year, Bliss did make the right decision and let him make his way on to the list last year.
Now, hindsight is 20/20, so it’s a bit unfair to Bliss to criticize him for all of the misfires. But there’s no defending Durant-Roy-Bosh-Granger as 6 through 9. Durant’s the only one who belonged in the top 10, and I’d argue he should have been top-5. Roy’s knees were ticking time bombs from the day he was drafted, and after the initial three or four years of predicting big things from Bosh and Granger, most people moved on from expecting them to be top-tier guys because they proved themselves to be incapable of reaching that level.
Grouping Westbrook, Gallinari, Griffin, and Jeff Green together (with no mention of Kevin Love or Steph Curry!) might not have been your best moment, and I still can’t believe you had OJ Mayo over Eric Gordon on your list last year Bliss (I’m a huge EG fan, so this may be a bit biased on my part) - but Tony Parker at 14?! A PG that was not a pass-first player, a steals guy, nor a 3pt guy was the 14th best player to build a franchise around? Yes he has a Finals MVP and is the youngest of San Antonio’s big three - I too sometimes overvalue the potential of young age - but that still doesn’t explain how Parker got that high on the list. Nevertheless, you got the #1 guy right, and let’s face it, most of the time, that’s all that matters.
Bliss Response: When I wrote last year’s column, Steph Curry hadn’t even really played yet. Remember, he broke out in the second half of last year. Kevin Love, yeah, I missed that. And I took Parker because he was a winner and explosive. And I thought Bosh had a pulse. And….Boom Dizzle, really?
On that note, let’s start the fun!
1.
Bliss selects: Derrick Rose
I know, I am probably going to take flack for this. So, let me outline my reasons. The number one pick in a redraft situation needs to be someone you are confident can make your team win now and for the future. Rose has been in the league for only a few years, but shown he is a winner.
Growth is another reason why I am taking him number one. He has shown growth in passing, scoring, leadership, and wins each year. I see things like him essentially booting Rondo off Team USA and developing a 3 ball this summer as clear signs of his impending status as a top 5 alpha dog. I loved his interview this past week where they won the game but he was legitimately disappointed in himself that he had missed a late shot and put the Bulls close to losing. He clearly cared. Rose has a great respect for and attachment to the game.
I am confident Rose will do well in any city big or small, and he can play many different ways. With Rose as your centerpiece, you can run a pick and roll team, a run and gun system, a slow down ISO game, or a grind it out defensively. Rose can dominate by himself, defend, and also make his teammates better. He has shown a remarkable ability to win with other parts of the team injured. He has already pushed Bulls’ teams that were not very good deep into the playoffs, but also led a great team of stars in the World Championships.
Rose shares a lot of qualities with Deron Williams, who was my number one last year. Rose has two things Williams doesn’t. First, a record of more winning in a shorter period of time. Two, a buzz, a pizzazz, an excitement. And okay, a better name. That counts too (jersey sales!)
My final point is his MVP status this year. Unless I am extremely off in my prediction, he will win it this year. And while this is a projection for the half decade, it is never a bad thing to start with the guy who happens to be under 25 and the most important player this year. Just saying.
VP Commentary: I don’t blame you for making Rose your pick, and a lot of people will probably support you here- he just so happens to be having a MVP year, added a 3pt shot over the summer to make himself an all-around threat, and has his team on top of the East at the moment. But I think the pick here is the next guy on this list. Now that’s not to say I don’t think highly of Rose; I had him as #2 in my ranks. Rose is a legitimate franchise cornerstone, and the fact that he plays PG just makes it sweeter since it’s easy to build around that.
However, Rose is a new-era PG, one who scores just as well, if not better, than he dishes. Granted, some of that scoring focus comes from the team built around him, but his forays into the paint are awfully reminiscent of another All-Star guard and Chicago native. The guy’s a warrior, no doubt, but the punishment he takes is a worry, albeit a minor one. His defense is good - he can guard Rondo solo and come out on top - and can still improve (now there’s a scary thought non-Bulls fans). And even though he’s added the 3-ball to his arsenal, he’s becoming a little too reliant on it for my tastes. To wit: his attempts from deep have increased pretty steadily since November and are now at 6+ per game (at less than 30%), which has obviously pushed his FG% down. What I loved about Rose’s game the last two years, aside from the pure talent and selflessness, was that even though he shouldered a large offensive burden, he did it with efficiency. This year though, the shot attempts have increased (even though Boozer and a rejuvenated Deng are around) and his high conversion rate from the floor is fading away.
2.
VP selects: Kevin Durant
Team #2 can’t believe their luck right now that they got Velvet Hoop here. Once again, Kevin Durant gets picked second in a draft- wonder how that turned out last time?
Kevin Durant has been the best at every stage of his basketball career. He was Big 12 Player of the Year. He was National College Player of the Year. He was Rookie of the Year in the NBA. He’s been an All-Star and All-NBA First Team, not to mention the youngest to ever win the scoring title. And on top of all the accolades, the kid’s a class act. He’s constantly active in his community in OKC and back home in DC. In the mayhem of the “summer of LeBron,” he quietly went about his business and signed his extension without any superfluous hoopla. Instead of jumping ship to a bigger market, he’s happy to show his character and stay loyal to the OKC fans. And last but not least, he’s uber-competitive. Durant’s cut from the same mold as the old school NBA players; he wants to win no matter what and lets his game do the talking instead of his mouth (unlike some other SFs we know…). He puts in a massive number of hours practicing during the season and routinely adds new elements to his game during the offseason, a la Kobe and Jordan. This is a guy you can trust a team to.
Let’s not forget: Durant was “The Man” on Team USA this past summer- and Derrick Rose was on that squad. The man is the most dominant offensive force in the league: he can get to and operate in the paint, he has the mid-range game down, he’s always getting to the line, AND he can shoot the 3, and he does it all at an elite efficiency level. Coupled with his length and wingspan, the kid’s nearly unguardable. Add in a knack for boards, the activity level on the defensive end (kudos to Scott Brooks for coaching OKC the right way), and the versatility to play both forward positions and you have, in my opinion, the best cornerstone for a franchise in the league.
Bliss Commentary – I have no arguments. I love Durant. I would have him going three due to positional scarcity. But, Velvet Hoop?
VP Response: It’s a nickname from his old Hyperize commercial with Iggy, Rashard, and Mo. Look it up on youtube, it’s good for a laugh.
3.
Bliss selects: Dwight Howard
Surprise! You all thought I was taking Deron. And I still love D-Will. But the center depth is so terrible the next best one is either an always hurt Bynum or an offensively challenged Noah. Dwight was already a top 5 franchise guy in my opinion but then took another step this year. His offensive game is at another level.
One quick story about Dwight as to why I love him here at 3. I saw Dwight playing Atlanta a few weeks ago. I saw him shoot three terrible shots, absolutely horrible shots from a distance of like 15 feet. Shots he probably he had no business taking. He even made one on an awkward bank shot. But the fact that at this point he is now WILLING to take those shots was a sign he has fully developed. And if he gives me 58%, 2 blocks, 1 steal, 22 points, 13.5 rebounds for the next 5 years, I’m happy.
VP Commentary: Franchise centers are rare in the NBA, and Dwight’s ability to dominate on both ends of the floor (yes, you read that right) is definitely an enviable asset for this team. However, I would’ve thought that Deron Williams would have at least stayed in the top-3 after you chose him #1 overall last year. Dwight is definitely a monster on the defensive end; Orlando essentially runs out 4 mediocre defenders and he covers for them night in and night out -that’s astounding when you think about it. His offensive game has gotten better too this year after his sessions with Olajuwon, although the same can’t be said of his FT% (what are those things that keep him from bringing his arm all the way back for when he’s shooting those FTs anyway? What? It’s his biceps? The same ones that make him so good at blocking shots? Ha-HA!). Sorry for that, I’m done making fun of his shooting. Let’s talk about his attitude. I don’t like to listen to people who say he goofs around or complains too much. One, it’s painfully obvious how much he loves the game and how serious he is about it, and two, have you ever seen LeBron, Kobe, Pierce, or any other superstar play in this league? They all whine about calls. The only attitude-related area I find fault with him is in his blocking approach. Why is he so hell-bent on making a statement by sending the ball into the stands instead of blocking the ball to a teammate (a la Bill Russell) and starting fastbreaks? With that said, now we can move on to talking about Howard’s (comparatively) tiny base. Howard has all the tools associated with a great shot-blocker: mobile, athletic, and a great sense of timing. Unfortunately, he pays for those gifts by sacrificing his base. Just look at his legs and you’ll see why guys like Kevin Love can box him out. Still, the guy is second in the league in rebounding this year, so that last point may not be as problematic as I’m making it sound. The way I see it, I think this pick comes down to your personal preference for what you like to build around, Cs or PGs.
4.
VP selects: Deron Williams
Deron is the most complete PG in the league after Rose. He’s a better passer than Rose (10+ asts per game the last few years) and arguably a better shooter. He’s quick and has a wicked crossover, but he always utilizes these abilities in tandem with his court awareness to bring out the best in both himself and his teammates. He’s also got great size for a 1 and uses it extremely well to lock down opposing PGs. I am a little annoyed with how he handled himself with Jerry Sloan towards the end, but Deron’s shown consistent maturity and poise every year in the league before this season, thus instilling some confidence in this “GM” that as long as we hire a coach willing to give him a little bit more freedom than Sloan (which is basically every other coach), Williams will be leading this team to a ring for years to come.
Bliss Commentary – I have no words. My love for DWill is eternal. I just chose D12 first because while the PG depth got better this year, the Center depth may have gotten worse.
5.
Bliss selects: Carmelo Anthony
Haha, not Lebron. While it makes me happy to push LeFake down a few pegs, I actually have a few legitimate reasons for why I would do this. Carmelo has been the league exactly as much as Lebron. They have both each changed teams once, recently in iffy fashion (though the Melo drama is almost faded with the excitement while Lebron’s issues are still out there). Carmelo has led his team to the playoffs each year, Lebron has not. Melo has been willing to play the four and learn post moves. He has been more consistent about his touches, even if he, like Lebron, is a ball stopper. Melo, not Lebron, was the alpha dog on the Olympic team. He has the more well rounded offensive game. Melo won a championship in college during his only season on a team that probably should not have won. Melo has been a clutch performer (I DO THIS) while Lebron is 1-18 in late game situations this year. Melo has 15 game winners. Melo takes and makes big shots without thinking about it. James passes to Mario Chalmers. Game, set, match.
VP Commentary: Any Knicks fans reading this draft will love you for picking Melo over LeBron. Sadly, both of us agree that D-Will is even better (I hate being a Knicks fan…), but I digress. I can’t complain about this pick, Melo is a pure scorer and effective on the block and in the mid-range area, rebounds well, is actually turning out to be a better long distance shooter than I expected, and is willing and able to say, as you so eloquently put it, “I do this.”
6.
VP selects: Lebron James
Full disclosure: I hate LeBron James, and I hate having to take him with this pick.
Okay, now to explain why I still picked him. LeBron James may be a lot of things - egotistical, obnoxious, irreverent (how can you give up Jordan’s number and then turn around and take Russell’s?!) – but, one quality he definitely possesses is TALENT. He is a complete player in the sense that the guy was blessed with a physique that allows him to play like the Big O but still bruise people down low like the Mailman. He is an unbelievable playmaker at his position, he can get to the rim at will, and his athleticism and natural ability allow him to perform at a high level even in areas of his game where he isn’t technically proficient (3-pointers and back to the basket). That’s mind-boggling! There’s a reason the entire league threw itself at his feet this past summer, and it’s pretty hard for me to let a guy like LBJ slip any further in this draft.
Oh, and one last thing: LeBron definitely quit on the Cavs in the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals. Building around him means building around his ego. It’s doable, but it definitely won’t be as easy or as fun as most GMs think it is- just ask Pat Riley.
Bliss Commentary – I cannot argue. He’s a great athlete. He belongs firmly high in the top 10. I don’t like him, I don’t know about him winning a championship as presently constructed physically and mentally, but he will be good. I just wanted to make sure he was the third best player at his own position after Durant and Melo. He’ll be Olajuwon and win a championship after Kobe fades and before Durant rises. That is probably good enough for 6th.
7.
Bliss selects: Rajon Rondo
“Vishal: Are you sure that is unbiased? How do you respond to him seizing up at the prospect of shooting or taking FTs the last 4 minutes of every game?”
Okay, so Vishal has legitimate points. But, let me say a few things. One, his jumper is not as bad as it is made out to be. His 3’s aren’t great, but he barely takes any. And the main reason he doesn’t do anything at the end of games is because he doesn’t have to. If you have Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, you are going to pass to them to create points as well. Rondo does a good job maximizing his talents, and those around him. I am making this pick because Rondo has spent 4 years in the league. He improved each year. He has 1 title and another title appearance. He is one of the best if not the best on ball defender at his position in the world. He is competitive and loved by fans. He is the best player on the best team (or second best team depending on the day) in the East.
Rondo seems to have a Jason Kidd like career in front of him. He will succeed for a long time with his skill set and have the ability to add more muscle and a long ball in there. He will learn to understand the game even better and pick more spots to go to the hoop when necessary. We haven’t seen the best of him yet.
The other thing is that when starting a new team in a new city, you don’t know what you are going to get. I have confidence Rondo will still succeed regardless of style or location. He will maximize his teammates, and still produce himself. 12 assists a game does not happen by accident. Rondo has a ring, Lebron does not. Rondo raises his game in the playoffs every round, Lebron quits. Rondo shows continual improvement, Lebron ignores clear things he needs to work on. So yes, I have Rondo 6th on my board before Lebron. Go ahead, hate.
VP Commentary: Yes, I agree he’s had 4 years of steady improvement. And I love that he’s been able to lead a team with 3 Hall of Famers for the last 3 years, and I hope his career arc follows Jason Kidd’s (translation: better late than never when trying to develop an outside shot). And I agree, you pass to Ray Ray and the flopper extraordinaire if they’re on your squad. What I don’t love is that he looks so uncomfortable taking jumpers late in games that teams leave him wide open in crunchtime, daring him to shoot. And how has his FT shooting not improved after 4 years in the league?!
8.
VP selects: Amare Stoudemire
STAT is the best PF in the league right now. Building around him ensures you have an excited fanbase, a reliable scorer, and a proven leader. He’s even rebounding and blocking 2+ shots a game now! It’s obvious now that it wasn’t just the system and personnel in Phoenix that made him look like such a great player- he’s actually that good. Just do yourself a favor and don’t hire D’Antoni and his moronic 8 man rotations for a guy like Stoudemire- you can’t play him 40+ minutes per game during the season and then expect him to perform at the same level in the playoffs. Bliss actually suggested the dream scenario for Amare: Don Nelson. Just imagine the possibilities…
Bliss Commentary –
“Bliss: Enjoy those knee ligaments in three years.
Vishal: That’s what I was waiting for”
Otherwise, I have no complaints. He won in the West, is exciting, plays multiple positions reasonably well, and has embraced both large and small regions to play in. I am confident he will work as a great starter for any team. But, 2 years from now, that knee needs redoing….
VP Response: Ah yes, the knees. Taking Stoudemire means you have a time limit of approximately 2, maybe three years, to win your ring. But let’s be honest here: if you give a franchise the option of playing in the finals/winning a ring right now and sucking for the next 4 versus contending for 5 years but never really taking that last step, they’re going to go with option 1 everytime. Give Amare the 5-yr deal, build with a win-now mentality, and then rebuild after he comes off the books.
9.
Bliss selects: Pau Gasol –
“Vishal: Oh man, I am going to enjoy this”.
Okay, let me defend. I know he is kind of a pansy man, and I hate him on principle coming from Boston. However, he is nearly perfect from a technical prospective. He can play power forward or center. Pau has been in the Finals for three straight years, winning two straight titles. His game will age well. He can be a leader, second banana, or even a role player on nights. He can play pick and roll, pick and pop, ISO, and post game. And he might be the best passer from a Post player.
VP Commentary: Dude, you just stabbed your boy Russell in the back.
Seriously though, I’ve liked Pau since the Memphis days (the Grizzlies were my favorite dark horse team back then, and although they never went far in the playoffs, they were fun to watch). He’s a great player and very versatile; you have no arguments from me there. What I do worry about with him is that he is not the #1 guy on a championship team. He’s not very vocal, and you saw even in the Memphis days that despite his skill level, he can’t lead and motivate his team the way the guys above him on this list (and some below) can. Still, this pick is definitely a safe one in that you’ll have a guy whose skill set will age well, which is pretty darn important considering he’s the oldest guy in the top tier.
10.
VP selects: Russell Westbrook
RW’s an easy pick here, and I think we can both agree on that. Strong PG, uber-athletic, and has a winning mentality and competitive drive. All these characteristics make for a good leader, and Westbrook will definitely deliver on both ends of the floor. He’s a fantastic defender (perhaps the best in the league potential-wise at the PG position), a born slasher, and now, a capable jumpshooter, a la Rose. And he’s not even at his ceiling, which is just plain scary.
Bliss Commentary – No issue, great pick. His jumper is improved too. Can he lead a team by himself though? Still, he clearly belongs in the top ten tier.
Okay, we are going to take a quick break. Part II (with picks 11-60 more succinctly done, I promise) will be up tomorrow around noontime.
-Michael Bliss, Vishal Patel
Click here for Part II:
http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2011/03/nba-redraft-odyssey-mb-vp-2011-part-ii.html
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