Don't get me wrong, I love Kobe Bryant. Greatest champion of this generation. I will laude him and celebrate his greatness when he is done (which is looking to be half a decade from now). However, being born and raised in Boston, I can't help but be a little skeptical of certain things about him. He certainly has some flaws and negative affects. He can be selfish and also may have set basketball back a decade with his 35 point a game season.
However, most people wouldn't figure out the thing that pisses me off about him the most. See, I hate he has set unrealistically high expectations for other guards in terms of longevity. Other than one or two other examples (Kidd and Stockton come to mind), NBA guards don't last long. They just can't with all the big men they run into and the punishment their knees take.
So, all over the NBA we have some ridiculous expectations about the longevity of guards. Iverson fell off a cliff and still there are bets to see what team he'll be on next year. When McGrady got hurt two years ago, I knew he was done forever as an All-Star player. People talk like he's still going to come back, or that his career got cut short. People, he had over a decade of high level play. It is over. That is a complete career.
So, back to the main purpose of this piece. When the Knicks got Melo, it was clear they had no focus on the future. It was all build now. However, when people started talking about Chris Paul going to NYK, I grew legitimately scared for them. I lived in New York for 4 years, the Knicks were the team that I watched on tv and went to see. I think I'd scratch my eyes out if James Dolan was my owner but I still hold some affection for the team. I was wishing desperately that they didn't sign CP3.
See, here I what no one seems to want to say out loud and unequivocally, so I will: Chris Paul has about 2-3 years left.
Heresy I know. I am supposed to love him. But I don't. I love Deron Williams. I love Rose and Rondo over Chris Paul too. They will all last longer than Paul. And here is why.
Paul is fragile. I remember looking at him in person a few times at MSG and thinking "wow, he's even smaller than I thought". He has already collected a variety of injuries that have taken parts of seasons from him. He had that scary concussion a few weeks ago. He has such a small frame that he will be susceptible to these types of hits. He has been in the league for over half a decade and actually did play in college. Paul just shed that knee brace but it doesn't matter. We can see the effect the years are taking. His scoring average is down 5 points from two years ago. 5! He is now an average scorer. And I do not see a Jason Kidd like path in front of him. He will slow defensively, and soon. He has some extreme miles on him. He is supposed to break down soon. That is a normal career arc.
Medical advancements and a few freak athletes like Bryant have obscured this inevitable fact. I also play contract lengths on this, because people seem to have the indefensible position that you should be good until your contract runs out. However, a person's body gives out when it is going to give out. That is why we should not be giving long term year max contracts to 28 year olds with a decade in the league (I'm looking at you Philadelphia and Atlanta). It puts unfair and unrealistic expectations on the players.
I am afraid in 3 years people will be asking what is wrong with Chris Paul, why isn't he playing anymore, or is playing badly. They shouldn't be wondering. But they will ask because because Kobe will probably still be playing over 20 points a game. Garnett may be playing for goodness sakes. Hell, Steve Nash may still be playing at a high level. Okay, the last may be wishful thinking. We should all be so lucky if Nash is still playing then. But CP3 may not be.
BLISS
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