Ah, the second round. Now, we get to the real contenders. Philadelphia, New York, and New Orleans were interesting and did try, but ultimately it didn’t matter. Now, we have 8 contenders ready to cut the field down to 4. If you win the second round, even if you lose in the Conference Finals, you can feel good about the season. Denver has been saying “well, we were in the conference finals three years ago” ever since it happened despite the fact that 7 of the last 8 years they have been out in the first round. We give them a pass for that.
So, now we get some real basketball with some great storylines. We’ll examine those as we go through.
Eastern Semifinals:
The Matchup: Chicago vs. Atlanta
The Storyline: Injuries may unfortunately become the story here. The Bulls showed us in the first round that they are a good team but that they also have no greater gear than what they showed in the regular season. I also do not like the depth at the swing positions. Yes, they have guys that do one thing really well (Korver and shooting, Brewer and defense, etc), but they cannot package it into one player. I think Joe Johnson and Josh Smith playing those positions for the Hawks will cause more havoc than you think for the Bulls. Al Horford will run all over Taj Gibson (who will have to play due to Boozer’s injury). All of this would suggest a possible upset except for the PG matchup. Kirk Hinrich being healthy may have pushed me over the edge to picking the Hawks, especially as he KNOWS Rose so well. But even with Rose being dinged up, it won’t matter because Jeff Teague will be guarding him. Rose may push 30 points a game in this series, and will need to. He wills this team to victory.
The Pick: Bulls in 6.
Rose just lifts his team, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atlanta hang around in games.
The Matchup: Miami vs. Boston
The Storyline: Really? I guess I will write about it. These teams started this great season. Boston is the history of the league with the Lakers, and one of proudest franchises. It has the biggest stars of the last 20 years, the most All-Star appearances ever, and some of the most important players of the generation. It also has one of the strangest stars ever, a point guard who can go super hot and cold, rebound like a power forward, and cannot make an 18 foot jump shot ever.
The HEAT has the two best players, athletically, in the league. They have another who is a top 25 player at minimum. They have all the pomp and circumstance. The expectations were incredible and the hype almost blinding. They are also hated by many in and out of the league. It is rare Boston is the more lovable team in a series but this might be that time.
This series also honestly has the best team in the East and the winner will probably go to the Finals. Chicago is now banged up and also has never been there before. So, essentially, I believe this is the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Pick: Celts in 6.
Celts have more rest and experience and take 1 of 2 in Miami. They win 2 at home, lose in Miami, then close it out at home in game 6. The deciding factors for me was that Garnett will make Bosh wet himself, the Celtics have more big men depth, and Rondo outclasses anything the HEAT can play at that position. 3 for 3 in points for the Celtics, and I believe in their experience.
Oh, and Lebron has a habit of choking in big games and quitting when things go badly. Sorry, couldn’t help myself!
Western Semifinals:
The Matchup: Oklahoma City vs. Memphis
The Storyline: This is a great story for Memphis, but in no way will this be close. If Rudy Gay was healthy it might be different because he could try to limit Durant and offset some of that scoring. However, even then I’d pick the Thunder because Westbrook is going to IMMOLATE Mike Conley. I like Conley but there is just no way is he close to being big or strong enough to strong Westbrook and if Westbrook is motivated he can destroy Conley and prevent him from scoring as well. Iblaka and Perkins can negative Gasol and Z-Bo in a way the Spurs couldn’t (reread that last sentence: I almost cannot believe it either).
The Pick: Thunder in 5. And it won’t be that close.
I think many strengths of the Griz will be negated. I don’t know where Tony Allen maximizes himself. He was a good match for Ginobili or Parker, but even if they use him on Westbrook then Harden will light up Conley. Battier at this point cannot handle Durant (who can?). And the paint will be offset at least.
The Matchup: Lakers vs. Mavericks
The Storyline: FINALLY! We have never seen Kobe and Dirk go head to head and that is a national tragedy. This should be a good series. Both PFs can score, and neither can cover the other. The centers are different but should have a great battle. Kobe should find himself attached to Corey Brewer at many times. Jason Kidd and Derek Fisher may start to have tea in the corner with how little running will be done by them in pretty much the least athletic point guard matchup ever.
The difference I think is that at the end the Lakers are champs and Kobe is more competitive than anyone else on the court. I am not sure who guards him, and Jason Terry will get shut down by Kobe. If the Mavs try the cross and put Terry on Fisher and Kidd on Kobe, Kobe is still electric enough to take advantage there. Also, compare Lamar Odom vs……Peja?
The Pick: Lakers in 5, because of home court placement. This will feel more like a 6 game series to be fair to the Mavs.
Bold Prediction: The NBA Champion will come from the Lakers-Mavs series. Good luck everyone!
BLISS
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