Divisional Round: Finally, we get to see the big boys play.
We have some good matchups this weekend too. Everyone wants to see the Saints
play outdoors. The Giants look like the correct kind of team to challenge the
Packers. Texans-Ravens is an interesting matchup because of some strong
similarities in team make up. Oh yeah, and a guy named Tebow is going to play
in Foxboro.
Let’s get rolling then, shall we?
Saints -4 over 49ers, 34-17
-This one is simple. The 49ers just can’t score with the
Saints. Okay, need more? Well, Alex Smith is playing in this game. Gore looks
broken down. The 49ers have never been here before, and the playoff experience
of the Saints will make a difference. I also think the Saints’ inconsistent but
potentially thrilling pass rush will flourish in this game versus a young
offensive line that allowed way too many sacks this season (percentage of
almost 9, which is terrible). Brees is lighting it up right now, but also will
remember the lesson of going to the West Coast and losing to an inferior team
last year. It won’t happen again. Prediction: Sproles spends a lot of time on
the edge and while he will not be “running the ball” he will rack up combo
yards in this game. Aldon Smith will get minimized and the Saints will be
productive as ever.
Pats -13.5 over Broncos, 41-23
-I was sad to see this line wasn’t lower. Denver is getting
no respect here…but they don’t really deserve any so I guess it is fair. The
problem here is that the Patriots are just much better. They needed the rest
but despite getting it won’t be dull or rusty. The Patriot defense, which was
basically running in place all year due to the trio of inexperience, injuries,
and lack of talent, will have cured 1 and possibly 2 of those issues. The
offense will be ready to go as usual. Brady at home isn’t an absolute anymore
but it is still pretty good if all else is equal. And truth be told, it isn’t
equal anyways.
We have a case study for this game because the Pats won a
month ago, in Denver, by a lot. Now, I know that that game turned on the second
quarter turnovers and turnovers are inherently unpredictable, but still the
Patriots dominated them so well I am confident it will happen again. The
Broncos just cannot score 35 points, and they will need to score around that
many to win. They allowed 23 points to a banged up Pittsburgh offensive team on
the road. They are about to get NE at home firing on all cylinders. 13.5 is not
enough to cover the onslaught coming. No Decker, Dawkins, so many other hurt
players, and Willis in whatever shape he is in. Sorry Broncos, your season ends
here. And yes, I barely discussed Tebow in these two paragraphs. But the truth
is, he isn’t going to matter much here anyways.
Giants +8.5 over Packers, 31-27
-The Giants are going to give the Packers a run for their
money. The case for the Giants to be able to win this game is reasonable and has
many areas. They are hot while the Packers haven’t been at completely full
strength for almost a month (including Jennings/Starks being at full health but
also the bye and the mini bye that was Detroit when many players like Rodgers
sat). The Giants defensive line is extremely strong and can get after the Green
Bay offensive line that is a bit beaten up. The Giants, unlike the Saints
(dome) and 49ers (good weather) can acclimate well to the climate in GB. It won’t be as much of a factor. The Giants
can throw the ball deep very well and the Packers let up big pass plays
frequently. The Packers are good, and talent wise are much better than the
Giants. However, that talent isn’t really in the right places to beat this
Giants team right now. I don’t like all that time off, the little injuries, and
the stress that the extended season put on them (they made a full Super Bowl
run, from the Wild Card position last year, and had to burn so much energy
keeping the perfect streak going it wore on them). It is really hard to repeat.
The Packers will lose sometime. I would take the points here because I can
totally see it being this week.
I just picked against Aaron Rodgers and with Eli Manning. To
quote a great writer, I will now light myself on fire.
Ravens -8.5 over Texans, 27-13
-TJ Yates is inexperienced, and will come to pieces in
Baltimore. It is just as simple as that. Flacco isn’t great but a 12 of 19 for
205 yards and 1 TD game is all they need. Rice should have a productive day and
I think a defensive score for the Ravens will be in order. This will probably
be a game in which it will somewhat painful to pay full attention. I won’t be
surprised to see a few injuries here either, though I don’t wish that on
anyone. Baltimore hasn’t had the greatest record at home, but will get up for
this game. Arian Foster won’t be enough to get this done, and the Ravens move
on.
Record last week:
Straight Up: 3-1
By Spread: 3-1
Record this year:
Straight Up: 140-61
By Spread: 109-90
Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 385-194
By Spread: 318-268
Straight Up: 385-194
By Spread: 318-268
BLISS
No comments:
Post a Comment