NFL 2011 Week 20 Predictions: Conference Championship Round

The Conference Championship Round!

Reasons to love it:

Truly the best teams of the season are playing, in terms of talent and continuity. They have earned their way here. Each team played a good game last week, no byes to come off of but everyone is relatively healthy. Normally there are good storylines and rivalries from this conference games, and that exists here.

Reasons to hate it:

We all suddenly have this realization football is almost done. We only have football one day a week (considering at one point a month ago you could get Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, this is a big shift). This is the end of the continuous football season (The Super Bowl is after a two week layover, with all the pomp and circumstance, in a neutral site. Not as bad as the BCS title game coming after 5 weeks off but similar.) Also, it is sad that some good and favorite teams are now out of it and will not be playing. During the Divisional Round there is a good chance you have one of the eight teams that you want to see win. By the final four, there is a good chance you don’t.

Overall of course, this is a great time for football. While conference championships don’t really mean much, it is nice to see back to back QUALITY games on Sunday.

AFC title game: Pats -7 over Ravens, 34-20

-A solid two touchdown victory is in the cards here. Before I get to any other analysis, I would like to dispel some notions.

The first is that Flacco is terrible in big games. The guy won twice versus Pittsburgh this year. He has won playoff games each year of his 4 year career, and this isn’t by accident. His defense is good, but he had more to do with those wins than Sanchez had to do with the Jets’ wins the last few years.

However, Flacco isn’t exactly good either and he can get very stiff and rarely gets past read #2. The Ravens are a tough team and unlike the Pats did beat a winning team this year. However, the QBs they played against included Dalton twice, Colt McCoy twice, The Colts terrible two, Skelton, Bradford, and Sanchez. They lost somehow to Jacksonville and Seattle.

While we are on the subject, the whole “Pats not being a winning team” thing is becoming extremely overblown. Technically you could say that. However, they did beat people when those teams WERE winning teams. The Broncos were an 8-5 team in the regular season when they played, and a 9-8 team in the postseason when they beat them the second time. The Pats also beat the Chargers, Eagles, Raiders, and Jets (twice) and all finished directly at .500. So, without the matchup with the Pats being taken into account those teams were over .500. Actually, the Jets were 8-6 against teams not named the Patriots. The Pats were not beating 4-12 teams every week. And ask anyone who played the Dolphins this year if they were pushovers.

When it comes to the title game this week, I actually think the result is simple: the Ravens can’t score 30 points. Nothing about their season in general or the Texans game in particular suggests that they can score nearly enough points to be competitive. I fully expect that the Pats will struggle more than they usually do against what is a good Ravens defense. But they will score 27 points minimum. That by itself should be enough to win this game.

The Patriots did lose two years ago, but these are not the same teams. The Ravens got older and a bit slower. Rice is wearing down a bit. The Pats did not have Welker due to injury, and hadn't even drafted Gronk and Hernandez yet. Those TEs change Baltimore's ability to blitz, cover the middle of the field, and move Brady around.

Ed Reed being hurt really hamstrings the Ravens’ ability to defend the deep passes and run creative blitzes, as does the fact that the Ravens run defense is so good…but the Pats don’t really run the ball. Suggs will be rushing against a good O-Line or forced to cover TEs that he simply cannot stay with. Thus his usefulness will be limited. Yes, the Ravens feel good about themselves, have won here in the past, and the weather won’t bother them. But honestly, it just won’t matter because NE can produce points. The Ravens struggle to produce points. It is that simple.

NFC Title Game: 49ers -2.5 over Giants, 22-19

-Here, we have a clash not of styles like the first game, but of momentum.

The Giants are all about momentum. That are running on some kind of awesome ride the last month or so. They are hitting on all cylinders, and the wave is carrying them so hard and fast many are penciling them in for a win here already. Even their play style is in waves. Deep passes, floods of pass rush. It is easy to get caught up.

The 49ers don’t really know the meaning of momentum. Sure, they had a nice run of wins this season, totally unexpectedly too. But each win was a grind it out, to the last minute, field goal laden, punching fest. They got 5 turnovers last week and barely won. Previous to the bye week, they struggled to beat a bad Rams team. This team has little sense of momentum at all.

So, why pick the 49ers? Well, here’s the thing. The Giants are built to beat the passing teams, and showed it by beating Green Bay last week. This is a totally different monster. The 49ers will run it at the Giants, and chew the clock. They will force the LBs to cover Vernon Davis (who will not drop balls like Jermichael Finley, theoretically), and I actually like Crabtree to have a comeback game after his stink job last week.

I had one major question about the Niners and they answered it last week. It had nothing to do with Alex Smith ironically. I wondered if their talented but very young offensive line could block the blitzing Saints defense. They did an AWESOME job doing just that. While the Giants style is different, rushing only 4-5 most times, I think the lesson learned still applies. They should be able to stop the JPP/Osi/Tuck combination, and through running the ball, 2 TE/2 RB sets, and ball control offense will grind out a win here.

Eli has been great, don’t get me wrong. But the ride has to stop somewhere. Nicks will stop ripping off long TDs at some point (hello Charles Rodgers), and Bradshaw won’t get anywhere against this defense. I am betting on the balanced SF team to stop the dynamic Giants team. Setting up, yes, Alex Smith in the Super Bowl.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 143-62

By Spread: 111-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 388-195
By Spread: 320-270

BLISS