Pats -9.5 over Bills, 34-16
-I'm not in any elimination leagues week 1, but this would be the pick. Bills only have two QBs on the roster and both are rookies. NE probably looks great and also has a chance to work out some kinks.
-Best eliminator pick
Seahawks -3 over Panthers, 30-17
-Why is this only 3.5 again? One team was this close to a Super Bowl last year and only improved, and the other retained Ron Rivera, lost their best DB in a bad secondary, and still hasn't added a second WR. Does Cam make them frisky? Absolutely. Do they win this game? No chance in hell.
Bengals +3.5 over Bears, 24-20
-I foresee a lot of 4 point victories for the Bengals this year. That's a compliment, I swear! I actually like this Bengals team, and while I have historically been a Bears supporter, they are in transition and the Bengals in ascension. Plus I want to see if Cutler can play well or if Brandon Marshall is even fully healthy. Geno Adkins should dominate a bad Bears OLine here.
Browns -1 over Fins, 24-21
-I have both these teams pegged for strong, developmental years at or just above .500. But the Browns seem to be just a little further along. Norv seems to have the offense lined up to be much better and the Dolphins' is still in the exploratory stage. Haden erases Wallace and the Browns win behind a workman performance from Richardson.
Lions -5 over Viks, 27-16
-My two big "last year's results were skewed, this year's squad will regress/progress toward the mean" franchises, and they happen to meet in week 1. I wouldn't be showing confidence in my own analysis if I didn't take the Lions here. A. Who covers Megatron? B. Christian Ponder is still being allowed to play Quarterback, right?
Can the Viks just go for a Carson Palmer-like trade for Philip Rivers and make everyone happy?
Colts -9.5 over Raiders, 31-13
-Yup. TY Hilton baby. The Colts are getting a chance here to tweak their revamped defense in a mock warmup for their schedule. They will need to use the time well.
-Most strategic eliminator selection
Chiefs -3.5 over Jags, 23-7
-So Vegas must think we all just pick by the record last year. Well, while the records say these teams were similar, the eye test shows something different. KC is taking its six Pro Bowlers and new coach into this game, while Jax still has Blaine Gabbert. Questions?
Saints -3 over Falcons, 37-31
-Falcons overachieved last year, Saints underachieved, they were close even at that point, and the Saints are vastly improved on defense. I mean, that isn't staying much because adding me at safety would have improved them. Kenny Vaccaro should do even better than me though: I think he will be a special safety. Even a ten spot jump in defense will propel them to 11 wins. They start on that path right here at home by winning a shootout with the Falcons who are limited by a hurt Roddy White. Also, as unpopular as this statement will be, I think this is the start of underperforming seasons by aging Ste-Jax and Tony Gonzalez.
Bucs -3.5 over Jets, 23-6
-I don't like the Bucs. Let's make that really clear. But, The J-E-T-S Jets are really B-A-D. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets don’t score.
Titans +7.5 over Steelers, 16-20
-Steelers probably still win but I don't see many blowouts for them this year, even at home. I don't like the Titans much either, but the Steelers have real issues.
Packers +4.5 over 49ers, 33-24
-The 49ers' defense showed cracks at the end of last year, and I can't imagine the Packers didn't spend all off season figuring out how to stop the running QBs of the league. The Packers have the making of a top 10 defense at least and that more than anything else propels them to a win here. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is a tough, competitive, proud son of a gun and I don’t know how he doesn’t take offense to what happened last year.
Rams -4.5 over Cards, 23-17
Bradford starts off his surprisingly solid year with a thorough win over the Cards, who may be decent this year but haven't gelled yet. Givens starts his surprise breakout season amidst his more fêted offensive compatriots.
Cowboys -3 over Giants, 33-27
-Whatever the over is here, take it. I stand by my pick of the Giants to win this division, but right now the Cowboys are (somehow) the more cohesive group. They are healthy, and know their identity. The Giants have questions at RB and WR with new faces/situations/injury concerns. So take Dallas in a high scoring affair.
Eagles +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 23-21
-This is pretty much a stay away. But, first, RG3 has to take some time to get acclimated and get his feet wet. Second, Chip Kelly's offense, regardless of whether or not it is successful long term, will probably surprise its first few opponents. So a narrow victory and definitely take the points.
Texans -3.5 over Chargers, 27-10
-The Chargers are going to be BAD. Texans may sit Foster though if they build a quick lead, so I wouldn't even start him. I expect the offense to be a decent mess organizationally for the Bolts, and the defense to show its lack of talent overall.
Record last week (Superbowl):
Straight Up: 1-0
By Spread: 1-0
Record last year:
Straight Up: 145-82
By Spread: 118-103
Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 534-279
By Spread: 443-376
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