NFL 2016 Week 19 Predictions

Week 19 Predictions:

Falcons -5 over Seahawks, 34-17

-Seattle has managed to have a productive season, get their wins and first round victory over lesser teams. It ends now. Earl Thomas’ absence hurts, it’s just that the teams they have faced haven’t been able to fully exploit it. The Falcons can and will. They should put up crazy passing stats and use spread back formations effectively. Seattle can score a little, but won’t be able to press and Wilson will make mistakes if behind. Falcons are a high confidence play here.

Pats -15.5 over Texans, 30-10

-I’m nervous about this line being so large. The Pats are 13-0 favored by more than 2 touchdowns in this era, but only 7-6 covering those games. However, in the playoffs there is a cutdown on cheap touchdowns late when a good team plays a bad one. I’m going to cautiously take the Pats to have a true blowout, especially with a bad young QB on the road. Brady will probably manage rather than explode, but Houston just can’t score productively on this team. My other favorite stat is that the Pats are 14-0 in games with Dion Lewis. He’s playing, so I guess we are good.

Packers +4.5 over Cowboys, 31-27

-I know. The Cowboys are better on paper, far healthier, and were dominant all year. They should be able to run all over the Packers. However, I am terrified to go FOR a team that has two rookies in their most vital positions. Zeke has a ton of carries on his body. And I am terrified to pick AGAINST Aaron Rodgers at this point. He’s playing a Jedi mind trick each week. Packers continue their roll and upset the #1 seed.

Chiefs -1.5 over Steelers, 24-20

-Okay, okay. I hear the complaints already. I do have a personal bias against the Steelers and need to take that out. Here is my reasoning:

          a. Ben on the road last 16 games: 14 TDs, 17 INTs

          b. Ben at home last 16 games: 36 TDs, 12 INTs

          c. This game is on the road

          d. Andy Reid is 19-2 coming off a bye, 3-0 in the playoffs

So that’s really where I started, and nothing else I see makes me think this isn’t going to finish in a Chiefs win more times than not. So, I am going with the Chiefs to win and cover. And for those espousing the “take the better QB” philosophy, over their last 5 playoffs games spanning 2011-present:

a.     QB1 is 2-3, 1429 yards, 5 TDs, 5 INTs

b.     QB2 is 2-3, 1507 yards, 13 TDs, 1 INT

QB 1 is Ben, QB2 is Alex Smith. I get it though, Ben is better overall and has had a better career. But for about 6 years now, and consistently on the road, Alex Smith has been better in the playoffs with lesser weapons and schemes. I’m taking the Chiefs.

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 4-0

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 147-92

By Spread: 124-113

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1091-608
By Spread: 898-786