NFL 2016 Week 20 Prediction

Week 20 Predictions:

Packers +5.5 over Falcons, 30-33

-I am so conflicted about this game as a pure pick. Strangely, I feel better about taking the points overall than the over or the true winner. On paper the Falcons should win this. They are healthier, more talented, at home, and had a better overall season. I am really afraid to pick against Aaron Rodgers. We are somewhere around Jedi Grand Master at this point with him, so the cover pick is a hedge. I also picked NE-GB Super Bowl, so it hard against just picking that game here to come full circle. But Atlanta, as upstart as they are, is a cleaner overall play to win straight up. This should be an awesome game, and a track meet.

Pats -5.5 over Steelers, 34-26

-I am throwing out their first match this year as it was early in the Brady reunion tour and Ben didn’t play. The Pats clearly had the better season, have been more even throughout, and have the better defense and a more even offense. I trust the Pats special teams more. The Pats are coming off an uneasy game, while the Steelers are riding a long win streak. However, the Pats were similarly coming off a long streak and shook off some rust last week as well as committed about as many errors as one can in one game. Tipped picks, fumble on kickoff, two penalties that extend opponent’s drives that end in points. There is no way that replicates going forward. The Pats are 16-3 at home in the playoffs in this era, they are 7-2 versus Pittsburgh in this era, they have the better defense and the better QB. Ben throws up a few bad balls each week and will do so again. Solid Pats win.

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 150-93

By Spread: 127-114

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1094-609
By Spread: 901-787