2017 NFL Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

I’m going to preface this listing by saying these are both stay away games. The four QBs are Foles, Keenum, Bortles, and Brady with one good hand. Watch the games, enjoy, but please don’t bet, I beg of you.

Pats -8.5 over Jags, 27-16

-I don’t know what to do with Brady’s hand. It totally could be just a bad cut and scare that he is already mostly healed from. It could be a broken thumb they don’t want to call that. Hoyer could be playing going forward. It could be a jammed thumb, with Hoyer ready in case Brady either can’t play or has to come out partway through the game. This creates fascinating strategy options. Is Brady just going to play out of shotgun, throw quick slants and seams to TEs, and run over 50% of the time? That would actually make sense as the Jags as weak against the run relative to the pass and weak against TEs. Playing in shotgun and throwing quick passes early would also likely push Dareus off the field, allowing more running.

Ironic Burkhead was the one who injured Brady as his return was one of the things I was most excited about returning and being utilized. I want multiple backs on the field as much as possible. The Jags are worse against the run, the best against 1 back – 1 tight end – 3 wideout formations, and have some slower linebackers RBs can take advantage of. I think they still will.

The Jags are likely going to regress, and against the stout NE defense will score more in the 16-23 range. NE will score more than that, and I think it is more likely than not Bortles will not be able to help himself. The Pats will take away Fournette and take away quick seam single read passes. They will make Bortles make reads and/or go down the field. NE still has strength in the secondary, and I think that is a tick in their column.

Eagles +4 over Viks, 19-16

-Quarterback A: 28 year old QB on four teams with a 22-17 record, career stats are 9752 yards, 61 TDs, 29 INTs for an 87.4 rating.

-Quarterback B: 29 year old QB on four teams with a 20-18 record, career stats are 8771 yards, 46 TDs, 27 INTs for an 86 rating.

I have no real idea what to do here, because the narrative is that Keenum is better than Foles. He likely is. But Foles also now has had time to adjust to the primary role and settled into being the QB again. Quarterback A is Foles, B is Keenum. As much as I like looking Keenum better right now, I do note Foles throws touchdowns in bunches.

My first blush is that the Vikings are better. The Eagles it appears are just too weak without Wentz. The Vikings have this smart, fast, variable defense that I don’t know how Foles can work against. However, that Vikings defense is also a bit hurt and beat up right now. That was a hugely emotional win. The Saints ripped through them up in the second half. The Eagles stayed tough all the way through their game. Sark was only part of it. The Eagles have a great defense that people are forgetting about. I’m going to say that Foles does enough, and Keenum regresses a little, enough in total for an Eagles feel-good win. Ajayi and Blount will be a big part of this, and so will Jeffrey if the Viks secondary is weak. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-3

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 163-94

By Spread: 132-123

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1260-683
By Spread: 1036-911