NFL 2018 Week 1 and Season Predictions

So clearly, I waited until the last minute to even write this. There will be very little proofing or resting on these picks, and my research level is a bit lower than it would be. This is the last year I am in school for a while at least, and I will be excited to embrace the NFL season a bit more extensively next year. However, due to popular demand, and the positive benefits writing each week on something other than my dissertation has on me, here we go again. Year 10 of SportsWorldBliss.

2018 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Division Winners

AFC East – Patriots – Bills have Josh Allen and Peterman, Dolphins have a Tannehill, and the Jets are starting the youngest rookie in league history. Thanks for the double digit wins and playoff berth before we even start the season.

AFC North – Bengals – They got better on the lines, got healthier on defense, and generally have more talent than most think. Something strikes me as weird about the Steelers too. Just a feeling.  

AFC South – Titans – I like the changes here, believe in Mariota, and think people are forgetting this team is young, good, have already been successful, is now healthy, and added several impact players.

AFC West – Chargers – Hate to bandwagon, but this one makes sense to me. Hopefully Bosa is healthy long term, but in general they are balanced and if healthy better than anyone else in this division on paper.

AFC Wild Cards – Steelers based on pure talent and Ravens based on coaching and a lack of good options elsewhere.

AFC Championship – Patriots over Titans (which is what I had last year).

NFC East – Eagles – Not loving this but the Giants are relying on an aging Eli, Washington continues to lose its best coaches and players rapidly, and the Cowboys could throw 3 guys off the street at receiver and produce about the same results.

NFC North – Packers – Aaron Rodgers is involved and is the best football player on the planet. I’ve written this for many years now, and not had to change a word.

NFC South – Saints – There is a Patriots-South vibe here (well, okay, that’s the Titans too, but this is FURTHER South and in the NFC). Established elite passer, innovative offensive play calling, sustained winning, and some young dynamic offensive players. Falcons worry me, Panthers still don’t scare me because of their offensive weapons (and left tackle situation), and Bucs well…there is a reason Dirk is the odds on favorite for first coach fired.

NFC West – Rams – Talent wise, the best team in football. If Goff can go from manager to point producer, forget it, it’s all over.

NFC Wild Cards – Vikings, who might be the second most talented team in football but have to play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, and Bears, who sneak in. Yes, I picked three teams to make the playoffs from each conference. Don’t do the math and check me on it, I don’t want to know if it’s possible. Seriously, don’t do the math, I want to live in my bubble.

NFC Championship – Packers over Rams.

Superbowl: Packers over Patriots – I keep picking Packers over Patriots, essentially the most accomplished QB of all time versus the most talented QB of all time, for years. It’ll happen at some point, you would hope. This would be like how we never got a Kobe-Lebron Finals, which is a travesty.

Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

-Feels like a comeback tour is happening.  

OPY: Gurley

-There is just going to be so much funneled through him.

DPY: Aaron Donald

-People don’t understand how good he is.

ORY: Darnold

-He’s starting from day 1 and plays in NY.

DRY: Bradley Chubb

-Opportunity based to make an impact on a still well thought of defense (even if it has fallen off more than people realize).

COY: Belichick

-I mean, it’s like Popovich. They should win every year. But they rarely do.

Week 1 Predictions

Let’s review last year, shall we?

Record in 2017:

Straight Up: 165-95

By Spread: 133-125

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1262-684
By Spread: 1037-913

I’ll take it, especially since that record was terrible as of about week 5. I’d like to push the percentage for picks against the spread though, too close to .500 for two seasons in a row.

Onto the Week 1 lines:

Browns +3.5 over Steelers, 14-13

-Start of my predicted weird season for the Steelers, who are traveling to Cleveland in a terrible storm without Bell and with a ton of distractions.

Vikings -6.5 over Niners, 30-23

-Jimmy G finally loses a game. Niners will be better and show progress, but Vikings are a really good and solid football team at home.

Bengals +3 over Colts, 23-20

-Oh, I’m so excited to take advantage of suppressed lines for the Bengals this year. Colts have terrible depth, questionable third choice coaching, and a QB that may or may not be able to throw over 20 yards. I’ll take AJ Green and Geno Atkins any day over that.

Ravens -7.5 over Bills, 20-6

-That tease is just screaming for someone to take. With Saints….?

Saints -9.5 over Bucs, 34-17

-Oh Bucs, that’s just a brutal draw for week 1 without Jameis and a mess on the roster right now. Good luck. Here’s your eliminator pick for the week friends.

Jags -3 over Giants, 22-16

-I almost feel bad for Eli. Almost.

Pats -6.5 over Texans, 31-17

-Pats under a TD? Always.

Titans -1.5 over Dolphins, 23-10

-Add the Titans to the Bengals for me as teams that seemingly are undervalued all over the place.

Chargers -3.5 over Chiefs, 27-23

-Ugh, I guess. Am I the last person who doesn’t trust Mahomes?

Broncos -3 over Seahawks, 20-16

-I have no idea. None. Don’t like either team. Taking the home team by default.

Panthers -3 over Cowboys, 20-10

-To be clear, I have the Cowboys being BAD this year. Like really bad.

Cards -1 over Washington Professional Football Team, 17-13

-I don’t know. I guess get a few wins correct before Bradford suffers the unfortunate next accident? I just don’t trust Washington to be able to score.

Packers -7.5 over Bears, 34-17

-I like the Bears this year. But Truthbisky on the road at Lambeau on primetime TV in an opener? Yeah, good luck.

Lions -6.5 over Jets, 24-13

-Darnold’s first start isn’t in a hornets’ next, but it is versus a competent team and professional players. Likely this is the result.

Rams -4 over Raiders, 30-13

-What is Jon Gruden doing?