2019 NFL Week 4 Predictions

Week 4 Predictions

I really wish I could just start predicting games after week 4 each year. I mean, I guess I could, I just don’t feel like that is the whole exercise. My numbers almost each year feel lower in the first three weeks while we are figuring things out.

I feel like I have in fact figured some things out. For example my Washington-Chicago pick last week was based in Chicago’s underperformance, and what I saw as some tight games by Washington. Clearly now with evidence, it seems Washington is truly bad, and Chicago is the overly talented but QB poor team that will pummel bad teams. Basically the 2017 Jaguars.

We are getting to the point of the season I call “transitive property understanding”. If the Pats (a presumed great team) beats the Steelers (a presumed good team) in week 1 when the Steelers have lost their best offensive player, then well, the Pats are better but how bad are the Steelers? When the Steelers lose to the 49ers despite 5 turnovers created…well, now we know the Steelers are just bad (injury to Ben aside). But how good are the 49ers? They beat the Bengals and Bucs, and there’s not much there to tell me they are good. The 49ers have the Browns and Rams next, and then we will know.

Here are the picks:

Texans -4.5 over Panthers, 27-20

-Nice game from Kyle Allen, but the Texans are an established team versus one holding the edges together. If the O-Line holds up for the Texans, they should win easily.

Browns +7 over Ravens, 27-30

-Ravens should win but that’s too many points. This could be a fun fantasy game, especially if the Ravens lose OBJ in the secondary like they did Mecole Hardman.

Chiefs -7.5 over Lions, 31-20

-I have a weird feeling about this covering, but the matchup makes no sense to take the Lions. The injured secondary doesn’t help.

Chargers -14.5 over Fins, 30-10

-Ekeler owners, enjoy one more week. It should be a beauty.

Bills +7.5 over Pats, 23-27

-That’s just a lot of points. Bills are a reasonably talented team, and we haven’t seen the Pats really play a great team.

Colts -7 over Raiders, 28-16

-Here it is. If the Colts are really a good good team like so many are espousing, the Luck retirement aside they should swat this Raiders team away. I’m giving faith it will happen, but if it doesn’t I am adjusting for weeks to come.

Falcons -3.5 over Titans, 24-13

-I really like Mariota. It might be time for him to be done in Tennessee. I really hope there is a second act for him somewhere. Julio, let’s keep the TD streak on track.

Giants -3 over Washington, 27-20

-If you had told me even a week ago that the Giants would come into this week with Daniel Jones and no Saquon, be favored, and I’d jump on it, I would not have believed you. But I am legitimately excited about it.

Cards +6 over Seahawks, 27-29

-I want one more piece of data on the Seahawks, who are feeling strongly like a 7-9 team to me. The Cards manage to score and be competitive every week, so I’ll take the 6 points. I’ll say one thing, it might be only 2-4 wins this year, but the Cards are absolutely more exciting, and full of promise. Just giving Larry Fitz a final act to his career is worth a damn medal.

Rams -9 over Bucs, 31-20

-If the Rams stomp the Bucs, I will officially anoint them as the NFC frontrunners. I also gleefully look forward to the 3 INT game coming from Jameis here.

Jags +3 over Broncos, 22-20

-Broncos are worst kind of bad. Just old and not exciting. Flacco might be the most boring QB, and he is just competent enough to have no real job threat. How a Fangio team has no sacks or turnovers in 3 games is wild to me. On the other side we have a feisty defense and the GFMII show from Jacksonville coming into town.

Vikings +1.5 over Bears, 20-10

-Okay. I wish the Vikings would run an offense from this century. But it is relatively working, and I can’t really say that about the Bears offense.

Cowboys -3 over Saints, 27-20

-I really like the Saints, but there’s no way there should only be 3 points here. It just isn’t enough for such a limited offense. The Saints got a vital win last week, but that’s about all they could hope for.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 24-23

-Mason was fine, and improved during the game last week. But the Bengals have been feisty and able to at least create yards and points, late if nothing else. I’ll take the extra half point, especially versus what I truly think is a bad Pittsburgh team.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-6

By Spread: 7-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 29-15

By Spread: 20-24

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1436-782
By Spread: 1176-1043