Bills +3 over Chiefs, 35-34
-I am so nervous betting against the Chiefs and Mahomes. But here is why I will do this. Bills are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. They are hot and in rhythm. Beasley is getting healthier. I do think they miss Z. Moss, but otherwise I love the matchups. Tre’Davious White to my eyes is still the best corner in the NFL, and I trust him on Tyreek Hill.
Mahomes looked cleared to play, and I’m glad he is healthy. The league is better with its best players. But to not expect rust and the possibility of inconsistency, especially when KC has had a decent amount of inconsistency this year, would be folly. KC last had a good win I guess week 14 (by 6 over the Dolphins were at the height of their powers). Week 15 they beat the Saints by 3 in Brees first game back, barely beat Atlanta Week 16, rested 17, had a bye 18, and ecked out the game Mahomes got knocked out of last week versus the Browns. And when KC beat the Bills earlier this year, it was a ton of running behind CEH’s season high, but he may not even play or be gimpy if he does.
Now Travis Kelce could murder the Bills across the middle. But I’m going to take the FG, the upstarts, and the very talented Josh Allen and Diggs combination.
Packers -3.5 over Bucs, 33-27
-This is very close. And like last week, I am so afraid to pick against Tom in the playoffs. But, the Packers are at home versus a team from Florida. The Packers are playoff tested, and for the Bucs most of them have been there once, this year. The Bucs have no Antonio Brown, a gimpy Ronald Jones, and a newly re integrated Vita Vea (who is amazing, I’ll admit). Aaron Rodgers is at the height of his powers, the Packers are far more balanced, healthy, and consistent. I like that consistency, and will drop the 3.5, which I wouldn’t normally do, for this game.
Record Last Week:
Straight Up: 3-1
By Spread: 2-2
Record this Year:
Straight Up: 168-86
By Spread: 129-126
Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1721-940
By Spread: 1406-1260
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