2017 NFL Week 3 Predictions

Week 3 Predictions

Unburying from the early weeks each year is becoming tedious. Ugh.

Ravens -3.5 over Jaguars, 20-10

-Send our best to London! Top notch offenses. Young, healthy, precise QBs! Innovative young coaches! Or, a semi broken Flacco versus Blake still Bortling and approximately 100 runs in this game. Ravens defense is a strong start. Strong. 

Pats -13.5 over Texans, 33-16

-Pats are dominant at home versus 1^st year QBs (10-0), winning to a tune of 17 ppg. Thank you, please drive through.

Fins -6 over Jets, 24-10

-Fins take this one because clearly they are more talented, and still remain, despite having Jay Cutler on the team, the team that is trying to win. 

Eagles -6 over Giants, 26-13

-Eagles front seven is going to kill the Giants offensive line. Wentz is going to have like a 4400 yard, 29 TD season, and people are going to be confused at the end of the year. Giants might hit the panic button here.

Colts +1.5 over Browns, 16-13

-The Colts still want to be in the race this season, the Browns are fine taking that top pick again. Kizer shows he is still a rookie, and the Colts were much better last week and almost close to competent. Hilton might come out his Tolzien induced coma here.

Bucs -2.5 over Viks, 24-9

-The Bradford thing is threatening to trip the Viks entire season up. I am looking forward to the Bucs having a true test at some point soon, but it will not be this week.

Lions +3.5 over Falcons, 34-33

-Lions are my surprise team still, and there were a lot of random factors in the Falcons blowout over the Packers. Stafford continues his Matt Ryan rise. Also, OVER 50.5. Very very over.

Panthers -5.5 over Saints, 23-16

-Are the Saints a good offense? Serious question, because I don't know we can just say that out of reflex at this point and be right. I know something is wrong with Cam, but the rest of the team is just so much better than the Saints roster it isn't funny. They are going to kick the crap out of this team, and that overcomes the QB issue in Carolina.

Broncos -3 over Bills, 26-12

-How is this 3 points? I know the Broncos are boring and led by Trevor Siemian, but this is ridiculous. The Bills are not that good, and the Broncos just rolled America's team. Lay the 3 with strong cash confidence. 

Steelers -7 over Bears, 24-13

-Steelers offense hasn't been good, but wow are the Bears bad. Why didn't Trubisky play last week when it got out of hand? If LeVeon doesn't get off here, there may be a problem because it hasn't been good so far, and Ben hasn’t been awesome either. I know FootballOutsiders loves the Steelers so far, and the defensive improvement has been good, but I need to see that old offense before I have confidence.

Titans -2.5 over Seahawks, 20-17

-I am not sure the Seahawks are good. I KNOW the Seahawks offensive line isn't good. The Titans can score in multiple ways, and take this even without Corey Davis. Derrick Henry is going to own that job in a hurry even DeMarco doesn’t get healthy.

Chiefs -3 over Chargers, 27-23

-Confused how this is 3. Yes, the Chargers should not be 0-2 and lost games in a heartbreaking fashion. However what is what they do, they do it well, and they will do it again. The Chiefs are a solid team and should win another game with a strong statement. 

Packers -7.5 over Bengals, 31-13

-Packers didn't look great last week, but there were a lot of circumstances involved there. The Bengals are lifeless, and it might be time for McCarron. Packers control this to a strong win, but I think we get a big AJ Green game here.

Raiders -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 34-24

-How is this 3? Love this bet. I am not sure Washington is a good team, and Cousin hasn't exactly lit it up yet. Raiders continue to throw 30s out and win convincingly.

Cards +3.5 over Cowboys, 21-20

-There is a formula to attack the Cowboys, and the Cards can do a veritable job of copying the Broncos in this regard. They just need to move it through the air in a similar way. I think the Cards pull out a close one, again daring Dak to complete complex reads on one side of the field.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-5

By Spread: 5-10

Record this year:

Straight Up: 17-13

By Spread: 11-19

Record in 2016: 

Straight Up: 153-93

By Spread: 129-115

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1114-622
By Spread: 914-807

2017 NFL Week 2 Predictions

Week 2 Predictions

Yeah week 1 went about as well as they usually do. I’m sure week 2 will have some radical adjustment the other way, just trying to weather the storm and getting a feel for things.

Ravens -8 over Browns, 20-6

-Unwatchable game with something like 70 carries coming between West, Crowell, and Buck Allen and 30 passes from Soze and Flacco. I’m more than willing to gamble and profit on it though. Again Browns play it tough but aren’t ready, and the Ravens defense marches them forward.

Panthers -7 over Bills, 24-16

-Panthers don’t look exactly right to me, but the Bills are actively trying to not be right. McCoy’s status worries me, and as much as Cam is concerning, it is more likely he improves than he is bad enough to prevent a strong win here. 

Cards -7 over Colts, 20-7

-Cards aren’t perfect. The Colts define imperfect. Glad Brissett is getting the start, but what a mess. Blow it up Indy, accept it and move on. 

Titans -1.5 over Jags, 27-17

-This line would have been unthinkable last week. However, the Titans were the good team who lost and the Jags are the bad team who won (all titles until further notice). I’m taking the generous line before it flips to like 7 by the rematch later in the season once Blake has Bortled all over the place.

Eagles +5.5 over Chiefs, 20-23

-Strange that both teams overachieved and confidently handled superior opponents last week but the line is so large here. The Berry injury is important, and the Eagles aren’t going to let what happened to NE happen to them. KC can still win, but the line is too high to lay. I’m starting to believe in Wentz.

Pats -6 over Saints, 38-30

-It’s under 7 so I am jumping on it. I think this will be crazy high scoring, but the Pats are still the far better team and the Saints are showing signs offensive weakness. Brady has spent 10 days staring at tape and finding new ways to replace Edelman (I think Burkhead plays more of a role there). Take the over though, especially teased down to 49.

Viks +6 over Steelers, 20-24

-Was that Cleveland playing the Steelers hard, or were the Steelers a bit rusty? That Vikings win was thunderous, so I will take these points.

Bears +7 over Bucs, 20-21

-Coming off an oddly timed layoff, without Doug Martin, with new weapons to incorporate, this is an odd time to lay 7. I’ll take the team who has played a week already, just to keep it close enough to cover.

Raiders -13 over Jets, 33-7

-YES. Under 14? Please please please take all my money. Raiders romp.

Chargers -3.5 over Fins, 26-22

-Similar to Bears-Bucs, just a bit unfair that one team is in rhythm and the other is going through so much at home. In this case, the Chargers are even closer in talent to the team they are facing, who have their own instabilities as well. Cutler, you are 16 weeks from retirement.

Cowboys -2.5 over Broncos, 24-16

-At this point, it is hard to take the Broncos with their limited explosive potential on offense over any consistent team. Sorry Trevor, it’s going to take more than 3 to get me interested or confident in supporting you.

Rams -2.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-17

-I have been on the Rams for a while, no reason to get off now. The McVay Bowl shows maybe that it was he and not Gruden that was more influential in the team’s success level? Something in general seems off in DC, so honestly this pick was easy for me.

Seahawks -13.5 over Niners, 26-10

-I start to feel very weird about this pick the more it drifts to and over 14 with that Seattle offensive line. However, I’m riding it for now. Um, Eddie Lacy just flat done?

Packers +3 over Falcons, 34-28

-I don’t care where it is, Rodgers getting points is almost an automatic call for me. I’m not sold Atlanta is just back where it was last year on offense either, even if they did get better on defense. Jordy and co. feast in the opening of what does seem to be a legit awesome stadium.

Lions +3 over Giants, 23-10

-No thought needed bets going forward: take the points when available versus the Giants without Odell, and take the under on Giants games. Eli’s decline along with a dearth of weapons may spoil a great Giants defense. Stafford has been awesome, and I wonder if a Matt Ryan year is coming where his prime, contract, confidence, and set up is the perfect scenario for a push in numbers mid-career.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-8

By Spread: 6-9

Record in 2016: 

Straight Up: 153-93

By Spread: 129-115

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1104-617
By Spread: 909-797

2017 NFL Week 1 Predictions

Week 1 Predictions

Let’s review last year, shall we? I have added the Super Bowl, which I got correct, into my year end stats.

Record in 2016: 

Straight Up: 153-93

By Spread: 129-115

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1097-609
By Spread: 903-788

Well, that could have been worse. I increased both lifetime marks in terms of distance from .500, but my win percentage didn’t really get any better. I will try to do better this year, and my problem tends to be these early weeks. I think I think I know more than anyone thinks they should know this year, and overthink. So, I am going to try to go simpler until more data reveals itself.

Pats -8.6 over Chiefs, 34-17

-Pats cover at home celebrating a title, both teams having suffered a major injury to an offensive player and the Chiefs still starting Alex Smith at quarterback for some reason. Also, the Chiefs have never won at Gillette, have lost 5 of 7 against NE, and Dion Lewis is still 17-0 as a Patriot with an average per game victory margin in those 17 wins of +17. Good enough for me.

Bills -9 over Jets, 17-6

-The night is dark and full of terrors. Some of them are named Peterman, Hackenberg, and McCown. McCoy gets like 35 touches and this is painful to watch on the 7^th screen at Buffalo Wild Wings.

Falcons -7 over Bears, 27-17

-What is this, the “oh, Falcons got the hangover lower the line” Vegas adjustment? Hit the 7 before it tips to .5.

Bengals -3 over Ravens, 20-16

-Home field plus unsure about the health of Flacco.

Steelers -9 over Browns, 24-10

-You are doing this right Browns, just one more year.

Cards -2 over Lions, 30-27

-I somehow have Stafford and Palmer going in multiple leagues, and also the Cards defense. No good. Cards are a more complete team, and the RB comparison is way out of whack. Also, we are starting the year off with a 2 Vegas? Way to pick a solid number and stay with it.

Texans -5.5 over Jags, 20-10

-….And then they give me 5.5. Higher Vegas, it should have been higher. Blake Bortles is intimately involved.

Raiders +2.5 over Titans, 27-24

-A lot of respect given to the Titans here. This should be an awesome game: It is the preview of my AFC Semifinals. Titans are still a growing team however and Oakland should do well throwing the ball.

Ethnic Slurs +1 over Eagles, 26-24

-No idea, taking the home team with the more established quarterback. Even if he did sign a 1 year deal because God told him to.

Rams -3.5 over Colts, 17-12

-Okay, unpopular opinion alert: The Colts should rest Luck as long as it takes. This team may not be good. Gore might be done. They are thin all over the place, and light. They have young guys not ready yet and old guys about to end who need to come off the cap. Maybe a mini reset is needed. Second unpopular opinion alert: I like Jared Goff still, and think the Rams are going to be sneaky, like 2015 Raiders, good before a leap the next year. The door still over there? Great, I’ll be over there.

Packers -3 over Seahawks, 30-23

-Can you believe the Fail Mary was 5 years ago? Or that the Seahawks somehow got another elite defense front 7 guy for little conveyance? Or that Richard Sherman is somehow still on this team? Or that Aaron Rodgers will Aaron Rodgers this game for them? Yeah, that last one I am actually easily on board with.

Panthers -5.5 over 49ers, 27-14

-It’s kind of like the Browns. One more year, doing it the right way Niners. Might need to try to develop a young QB though. Newton might not even need to push himself here, though it’ll be exciting to see Christian M and how he is used.

Giants +4 over Cowboys, 23-20

-Giants spent the offseason quickly adding defensive and offensive weapons, and the Cowboys spent it getting arrested, suspended, and not looking hard enough at natural regression for Zeke and especially Dak. Taking the points here.

Buccaneers & Fins – Best wishes to the residents of Florida and those affected by the current storm systems.

Saints +3.5 over Vikings, 30-23

-Saints love MNF, Saints love in door facilities, Saints had Brees spending the offseason cooking up new ways to get randos 1000 yards so he’ll get to 5K again. I also still don’t trust Sam Bradford.

Chargers +3.5 over Broncos, 24-16

-You need a quarterback, and I’m still not sure Pro Bowler Trevor Siemien is the answer. Yeah, that happened, look it up. I love the Chargers a little bit, they got the QB in Elway mode, and a juiced-up pass rush. 

2017 NFL Season Predictions

Hello friends,

          For about the third year in a row, I debated not writing about the NFL season again. The PTB know that I have plenty to do, most of it writing related. I even have a doc class right now that includes essentially daily journaling. But, I can’t resist. I need to keep my streak going. This is my 9^th year writing this thing. It has kept my sanity through jobs and school, and helps me reset my brain each week in preparation for fantasy matchups and *friendly* wagers with friends and family. I look forward to the day when I can write at more length and with extended mirth, but for 2017, this will again be abbreviated but authentic football analysis and internal dialogue spout onto a blog post. Enjoy.

MIKE

2017 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Division Winners

AFC East – Patriots – I mean, two of the teams gave up already and the one that is trying signed Jay Cutler.

AFC North – Steelers – I hate this, but the infrastructure for the Bengals is declining.

AFC South – Titans – Don’t trust the QB situation anywhere else. Hurts to say that about Luck though.

AFC West – Raiders – Been on the bandwagon for two years. Hanging on until further notice.

AFC Wild Cards – Ravens on the strength of a great defense and Chargers with a good QB, decent weapons on the outside finally, and two good pass rushers.   

AFC Championship – Patriots over Titans.

NFC East – Giants – Eli will remain inconsistent but that defense is going to be awesome.

NFC North – Packers – Aaron Rodgers is involved and is the best football player on the planet.

NFC South – Panthers – Uneasy about this division but the Bucs and Falcons both scare me.  

NFC West – Cardinals – I have a good feeling about this team. Palmer was just fine last ten games of last year, the narrative isn’t exactly right there.

NFC Wild Cards – Seahawks because of the gross talent, and Falcons because it will be hard not to score a lot of points and the defense will get better than last year.

NFC Championship – Packers over Cardinals.

Superbowl: Packers over Patriots – Would have flipped this a few days ago, but the Pats are thin along the ends of both lines all of a sudden. Packers quietly reloaded with a bunch of young guys and are my pick here.

Awards

MVP: Tom Brady.

-Even without Edelman, they are going to score so many points and the narrative loves him here.

OPY: David Johnson

-1K+1K in play. 20 TDs also.

DPY: Joey Bosa

-20 sacks in play, and the defense should rise in notoriety and effectiveness.

ORY: Dalvin Cook

-Opportunity based pick.

DRY: Myles Garrett

-Browns may be a little better on defense than we think. Was also thinking about Solomon Thomas.

COY: Belichick

-I mean, it’s like Popovich. They should win every year. But they rarely do. 

NBA 2016-2017 Predictions: The Finals

After 9 days of no basketball that may have led me to download one of those terrible apps to shoot baskets paper toss style and download Fultz included Celtics rosters on 2K, we are finally at the NBA Finals. I have been on the Warriors all year, which I know is not a unique position. I have seen people all week try to find ways to talk themselves into Cleveland, working on the Lebron and MJ narratives. The truth is, 538 and Pelton and the majority of the experts are probably right and the Dubs are going to roll them. This Warriors team should have beaten this Cavs team in 5 last year. The Cavs treaded water or got worse (Korver, Fyre, DWilliams are worse defensively than those they replaced), and the Dubs replaced Harrison with Durant. Check please, drive through. I’ll spare the suspense and call Warriors in 5 games.

I like to find similarities in other, previous Finals matchups: they typically help me see past the headlines of the day. To me this series recalls Spurs-Heat II. The Spurs should have won in game 6 the year before, they came back the next year quieter in the regular season but focused on the playoffs and blew the doors off the end of the Heatles run. I think the similarities best work for this series. It is the rematch in which the SF position on the better team got better (Kahwi improving similar to the Durant signing), and the rest of the team is focused and wants revenge. It comes down to positional matchups. Last year Cleveland won at PG and SF. Kyrie torched a hurt Curry and Lebron was uncontainable. Curry is now healthy, they will have a better plan for Kyrie, and Durant is the best possible matchup to play Lebron on defense and influence the game on an elite level on offense ameliorating James’ impact. Like the Spurs three years ago, I think the Warriors are a whirling, incisive, back door cut hitting, DHO machine. Cleveland is able to score, but their defense has only improved to the level of competition they have.

There are some questions for the Dubs. Iggy may not be fully healthy, and Clark/McCaw/Zaza don’t inspire confidence. However, I really think Curry, Klay, Durant, Draymond play 40 minutes each and they don’t have to use anyone else for more than 20 unless Iggy is healthy and they want to. Cleveland however has to either get full minutes from JR or play combinations of Frye-DWill-Korver in lineups that will get gashed defensively. At the end of the day there are pick and roll combinations of Curry/Durant and Curry/Dray that can be unleashed with Kyrie/Love defending and that are going to be disastrous for Cleveland. I hope the contests will be exciting, but it will likely be short.

NBA 2016-2017 Predictions: Round 3

East:

2. Cavs over 1. Celtics in 6 games

-I oscillated between 5 and 6, but ended at 6 because the Cavs will be at home for game 6 instead of 5. I think Cleveland splits in Boston, gets both at home, then loses 5 before beating Boston in 6. Cleveland is just a far better team. Their three point shooting from every position is better than Boston, and Boston is going to get eviscerated on the boards. I love Horford in almost any scenario, but I honestly don’t know how he can be effective here like he was in the first two rounds. Unlike Gortat, Love and Thompson are mobile enough to follow him out to the perimeter, move their feet enough to stay with his drives, and the other will still be under the rim to rebound. I actually think IT will do okay because of the lack of rim protection for the Cavs, but Lebron is going to be guarded by Crowder and (gulp) Jaylen Brown who won’t be able to hold him. This is a better matchup for Isaiah though, because Avery will surely be on Kyrie and IT can hide maybe on Shumpert, Korver, etc. The Celtics 4 spot is going to get exposed though, and 5 games is well within reason. The Celtics only chance to win the series is that they are sharp while Cleveland got rusty (unlikely), and their bench kills Cleveland’s (possible). It also feels like Marcus Smart versus JR Smith ends in someone doing something stupid.

West:

1.  Warriors over 2. Spurs in 5 games

-I know game 1 already happened, but I had this before. I hate the NBA starting one round before all the games in the last happened. The Spurs had their chance, and both lost it and Kawhi. The Jedi Octopus is likely to miss game 2, which means >95% chance Golden State now blasts them off the court and takes command of the series. Golden State worked off its rust, and the scary part is Klay is due for some better games in a row. This could be a sweep, but I trust in Pop to get at least one, probably game 3. This is just too much for young folks like Simmons and Anderson to really hang with each game, or Manu to keep up productive minutes. Patty Mills is also going to get taken advantage of. Pop, I love Gasol too, but I don’t think he can play in this series if you want a chance to win.

Nothing really has changed long term. 538 has the Dubs at 84% to win the title, and even if Iggy is more hurt than a game to game status I’d say that’s right. It’s almost unfair because the playoffs are getting good with good ends to SA-HOU and WAS-BOS, but likely Golden State will walk away with the title fairly easily. 

NBA 2016-2017 Second Round Predictions

East:

4. Wizards over 1. Celtics in 6 games

-This is the prediction I made before the series started and obviously, I would change it now. I was between Wizards in 6 and Celtics in 7 before the series started. Injuries to Wall, Gortat, and especially Markieff Morris have changed that more so than the Celtics game 1 win. It is bad to lose a game you have a 16-0 lead in. Giving up two quarters of 150+ offensive rating suggests they aren’t going to be able to stop the Celtics in this series, and with no bench depth they are going to get killed on second units. More likely Celtics in 5 at this point.

2. Cavs over 3. Raptors in 6 games

-I want to pick the Raptors, but just can’t do it. I like Kyle Lowry much better than Kyrie, but man, I can’t support that with their respective playoff histories. There still is no one to adequately cover Lebron. The Cavs move the ball better on offense than Toronto does. I’m not sure if Jonas can stay with Tristan. And again, Lebron. Ugh.

West:

1.  Warriors over 5. Jazz – sweep

-Not even a discussion. Jazz are tired and beat up, Warriors are ready to go. Gobert would have to be super mobile to even make this close, and he’s not. Brooms.

3. Rockets over 2. Spurs in 6 games

-I respect the hell out of the Spurs, especially Kawhi. They do have one strong quality for this series in 2 plus wing defenders. However, the defense at the PG position for the Spurs is only okay, and the defense for the center spot is poor. The Rockets are going to find ways to slip past them, isolate Harden on Mills or Parker, and get Pau and Lee in space trying to guard Anderson out to the three-point line or keep Capela from catching lobs and finishing over them.