NFL 2010 Week 3 Predictions

Let us reflect on the first few weeks of the NFL 2010 season. First, the games have been ridiculously close. Somehow, I am 9-1 straight up and 4-5 against the spread, and the lines have not been overly large.

Traditionally, the first two weeks of the regular season are not great indicators of what happens later. Brees and Schaub struggled the first two weeks of 09, and obviously that season went well for them. The Giants were 0-2 a few years ago, and won the Super Bowl (and that still hurts).

Neither Rodgers nor Brees has been spectacular so far, but the teams are 2-0, and Brees actually leads the league in completion %. Also, both have RB injury issues, so they will be airing it out more often. Logic and tradition dictates that one of the 0-2 teams will rise up and finish over .500 (I’d bet on the Cowboys), and one of the 2-0 will fall back quickly (going with Tampa Bay on that one, though I still do not believe in the Steelers either).

My top 5:

1. New Orleans

2. Green Bay

3. Houston

4. Indianapolis

5. Chicago

My bottom 5:

28. Cleveland

29. Seattle

30. Oakland

31. Carolina

32. Buffalo

Buffalo looks truly terrible. I also think Green Bay is better than New Orleans, but I don’t knock the champs off until they lose.

And now, the picks.

NFL 2010 week 3 picks:

Saints -4 over Falcons, 27-21

-I am a little nervous about this because while the Saints are still on an extended winning streak, they haven’t covered twice in a row, and really haven’t clicked yet. However, they are at home, the Falcons haven’t been dominant either, and NO owns ATL. Pierre Thomas owns ATL specifically, it is a great time to play him if you have him, especially with Bush’s injury.

Bills +14.5 over Pats, 20-34

-The Pats don’t look great, but are a much better team and are at home. However, 14.5 is a lot. I might have bit on 13.5, but this is too much. Look for a 10-14 point victory.

-NB: Probably your best Eliminator pick, especially because the Pats really aren’t in the “wait to use later in the season” category any more.

Bengals -3 over Carolina, 27-10

-Carolina was bad, and now is switching to the backup rookie QB. You tell me how this is going to go.

Ravens -10.5 over Browns, 27-13

-The Ravens are much better, and I think Flacco figures it out this week. Ray Rice may have a HUGE day. Look for Cribbs to get involved and do well, but the rest of the Browns to be REALLY bad.

The Houston-Dallas game is a stay away, but the over at 46 is great.

Lions +11 over Vikings, 17-24

-The Vikings will obviously win, and AP may have 200 yards-3 TDs. However, the Lions have shown an ability to hang close, each of Calvin and Jahvid will find a way to score, and the Vikings will win by pounding it, not passing it. Thus, a lower point total and a cover.

Eagles -2.5 over Jags, 24-14

-Do I like Mike Vick being the starter? Not at all. But, we are still talking about a team that is much better than Jacksonville. Garrad is terrible, and while the Philly pass defense isn’t great, it does feast on opportunities. Garrard will provide those as MJD will get stuffed in the run game. I also think Jeremy Maclin will score for a third game in a row, as the attention will be shifted to Jackson and Celek here.

Rams +3.5 over Skins, 17-16

-I like the Rams, who seem to be really making progress. They are really only like 3-4 starters and 3-4 decent bench players away from being competent, especially in that division. I don’t trust the Skins quite yet, and will take the points here, especially where the Rams are home and the Skins are coming off such a tough loss. Bradford also looks like the real deal.

Colts -5.5 over Broncos, 27-13

-If Champ doesn’t play, this could be worse. Moreno should have a good game, and Royal could be good for some underneath passes that will add up. However, the Colts seem to be back on, and I don’t see how they can win this game. The Colts should roll here.

Cardinals -4.5 over Raiders, 20-10

-The Raiders fans are happy they are switching to a guy described as a “slower, smaller” Jeff Garcia. Questions?

Chargers -5.5 over Seahawks, 28-7

-This could be ugly, but it is in Seattle. The Chargers are getting on track, and Seattle could be ready to fall off it. If Seattle gets going early, it could be closer. However, it is more likely that the Bolts get on Hasselbeck early and force mistakes that lead to Rivers scoring early TDs. However, don’t expect an amazing game out of Gates, the Seattle LBs are decently rangy and will do okay covering him.

Packers -3 over Bears, 31-27

-I really like what the Bears are doing. They are playing to their strengths and maximizing what they do well. However, I think the Bears at max capacity and the Pack right now are pretty much the same thing. The Packers will get better and shift into gear. The Bears are at home, but in the Green Bay/Chicago weather battle, it is always a draw. I do really respect the Bears, but the Pack are simply better.

NB: The over at 46 is delectable.

 

Record last week:

Straight up: 8-1

Against the Spread: 4-4

Record this year:

Straight up: 9-1

Against the Spread: 4-5

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 127-69
Against the Spread: 105-93