What are the Odds?

Again, like the last column, these odds were posted 10 days ago, but I have switched blogs. Some of them look good after 1 week, so not so good. We will see, though week 1 typically means nothing.


Welcome to 2010 Everyone. I know it has been awhile, but football has returned, and so will my column. I will be doing a roundabout introductory column to the season. Instead of covering every team, I am going to highlight some odds I really like being offered right now. You know, for if gambling was legal.

Team wins:
Patriots over 9.5 wins.
-This is a lock, 2 wins versus Buffalo and at least 1 versus Miami make them at worst 3-1 before anyone else. They get Cleveland and Detroit also. The rest is decently tough, but I see 5-1 in those games before anything else, so 10 weeks is a lock. The defense won’t be as bad as most people think.

Colts over 10.5 wins.
-This is more dangerous because the division is really good. However, they have won 11 games for 7 years. They also get Washington, Oakland, KC, and Denver. I see 3-1 right there, and they get at least 4 from the 6 games versus Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. So, we have 7-3 minimum. As long as they have Peyton, I see victories piled up.

Packers over 9.5 wins.
-I like Detroit, but there is 2 wins. Chicago is at worst a split. They should get Minnesota at least once. There is at worst 4-2, and they get Buffalo and Washington. This team is simmering on offense, and I think they dominate their division.

I love the Packers to win their division odds, the AFC South to have the best record, and the NFC West to have the worst. All are good odds.

Individual Stats:

5-1 odds on Andre Johnson leading the NFL in receiving yards. He has done it two straight years. He is a horse in his prime. His team throws the ball. And who else is going to dominate in yards? Wayne, Jennings, White, etc share too many other good guys. Moss is TDs, not really yards. 5-1 odds, really? Get on that.

3-1 odds on Chris Johnson to lead the league in rushing yards. Okay, 3-1 better. Unless he gets hurt, it is a two horse race between him and AP. And, Brett Farve will want to throw too much. The Titans will run it like crazy. He did pace the league by a ton last year.

1500 yards on Chris Johnson, Over. I just don’t see him going under this. He is going to get the carries. Houston and Indy are four games of high potential yardage for him. Plus, he’s Chris Johnson.

11.5 TDs on Randy Moss, Over. He did this with Matt Cassell and a half healthy Brady last year. Now he gets fully healthy Brady in a contract year. It’s Moss. He looks good, Wes is there but won’t get as many catches as usual. The TEs will draw safety help down, and Moss will get one on ones deep. You know what happens when they do that.

1050 yards for Larry Fitzgerald, Over. I know, he has Derek Anderson. But, he’s in his prime, and someone has to catch balls. He is still awesome. Go for it. Easy odds.

60% for Kevin Kolb, Over. At first, a strange stat. However, this is a West Coast system. They check down to TEs and RBs. Westbrook/McCoy caught over 70 balls a year ago, and those are at a high rate. Celek is a great possession TE, again at a high percentage catching rate. Easy odds.


MVP odds:

15-1 odds on Tony Romo. I like this because of the outrageous 15-1 odds. It should be like 12-1 or 10-1. The voters love Dallas. Dallas is expected to do well, but the expectations aren’t sky high. Romo had a great year quietly last year. He added the best WR in the draft. He has three good RBs, but none of them will dominate and draw attention. He has a decent defense, special teams, and coach, but not great in any of those categories. If the Cowboys go 14-2, he can clearly be pointed to as the reason why. He just turned 30, he is focused, he knows this offense, and finally has full weapons. He’s not my favorite to win, but the odds rock.

5-1 odds on Aaron Rodgers. He clearly is an outstanding individual performer. People started noticing him last year. His already great numbers can jump more. He isn’t Brett Farve. The fantasy geeks love him. 5-1. Just saying.

The next column will have a more normal prediction schedule. Remember everyone, set your rosters…