So baseball isn’t my favorite sport. I honestly almost cannot watch it. It is so slow it is painful. The money is completely unregulated. The ball parks are not all the same size. The human error in strike calls makes me cringe. And the fact that MLB still refuses to modernize, admit it has one league and not two, and let highlights be posted online, confirms for me that they have no perspective on the real world.
Oh, but the stats. I love the stats. See, I love long term stats because they tell an unbiased story. Over 162 games, 6 months, 500 at bats, 200 innings pitched, you can see clear patterns. A fantasy football season can be swung by one huge game where a receiver pulls in 250 yards and 3 TDs. Baseball evens out the craziness. So instead of predicting the whole season, or expanding my first paragraph (beacon of light and hope it was), I decided to enlist my similarly stat happy cousin Matt to pay tribute to Nate Ravitz, Matthew Berry, and all the guys at ESPN’s Baseball Podcast.
Here is our rendition of the Board.
Team wins:
Yankees, Bliss under 91.5 wins, Orsi over
-Bliss: The pitching is not good enough to cover this. 88 wins is fair, but 92 is a lot, especially because I think the Red Sox will take the season series from them.
-Orsi: Who needs pitching?! As long the team can hit and get to MO at the back end of the pen, 92 and 70 is definitely reachable.
Jays- Bliss under 76.5 wins, Orsi over
-Bliss: This team isn’t bad, but not enough pitching in a strong division. With some Orioles growth, they could be fifth.
-Orsi: As Bliss said, they aren’t awful. They are just going to need to win a lot of out of division games. Bautista needs another year like last year and Hill and Lind need to bounce back for this to be close.
-Bliss: Let’s examine the phrase “Bautista needs another year like last year”.
-Orsi: His whole thing hinged on mechanics. He started hitting better at the end of 2009 with a new hitting style and it carried over to last year.
Angels- Orsi under 83.5 wins, Bliss over
-Bliss: I understand your view but with the Rangers lack of pitching, and the Angels history, I think they get to 85 or so. And I love Dan Haren.
-Orsi: I’ll give you Dan Haren as a legitimate ace that they haven’t had for a while, but the closer situation is relatively shaky and the core of the offense is aging.
-Bliss: I believe in Walden! Okay, I tried.
-Orsi: He’ll be fine as a closer. Better than Fernando Rodney at least.
-Bliss: Way to not help me with your comment. I’m better than Fernando Rodney.
Reds- Bliss under 85.5 wins, Orsi over
-Bliss: One year wonder, no pitching, Brewers will kill them.
-Orsi: As you can see, I don’t really believe in the whole “pitching and defense” thing. The offense is definitely going to be good and its possible they win games by just outscoring people.
DBacks- Bliss under 72.5 wins, Orsi over
-Bliss: They haven’t shown me anything definitive, and I’m not sure who is on that roster.
-Orsi- As of now or three years ago? Its more or less the same, regardless. Youthful offense which should finally come together is probably the only reason for optimism.
-Bliss: You can have fun with Chris Young and Stephen Drew’s health. Yes, I do own both.
-Orsi: WILLIE BLOOMQUIST.
-Bliss: I own him too. *hangs head*
Dodgers- Bliss under 83 wins, Orsi over
-Bliss: Offense is no good, and the pitching is only okay. Oh, I like the main starters, but the rest scares me.
-Orsi: The pitching isn’t that bad at all. As long as the bullpen gets sorted out, they can win games.
-Bliss: This division is no longer a pushover though.
-Orsi: They’re still gonna break .500.
-Bliss: 81-81 is still .500, right?
Padres- Orsi under 74.5 wins, Bliss over
-Bliss: Mainly because it is such a low number. But also because I think they will be sneaky good enough in a light division.
-Orsi: They never had a great offense, and their biggest bat is 3,000 miles away.
Winners:
AL East- Orsi- Yankees, Bliss- Red Sox
-Bliss: Mainly because the Sox will be over .500 versus the Yankees. I also think the Yankees will have some injuries.
-Orsi: No comment. *starts weeping deeply*
-Bliss: Don’t worry, not everyone in the NE area is hunting for you now, just most of them.
AL Pennant- Orsi- Red Sox, Bliss- White Sox
-Bliss: Love the ChiSox’s combo of hitting and pitching. I think Jake Peavy is the key, but if he is good even if not great, I think they get this.
-Orsi: One of the most hyped teams in recent memory; they have to be good for something, right? Stellar offense once they all wake up. The pen has three potential closers, so no concerns there. Only question is consistency of the starters.
-Bliss: Having three potential closers IS a concern. Also, do I need to cut and paste John Lackey’s salary structure the next four years? Don’t make me do it, I will.
NL East- Orsi- Braves, Bliss- Phillies
-Bliss: There is way too much talent on the Phils, even with the offensive injuries. Four dynamic pitchers. I am not predicting 100 wins or anything though.
-Orsi: I understand the Phils have the projected best 4 starters ever(plus Joe Blanton, poor guy). The offense is just bad though; Howard is on a decline and the rest of the offense is following right behind. The Braves, on the other hand, are making a steady climb to the top of the NL East behind good starting pitching and timely hitting.
NL Pennant- Orsi- Rockies, Bliss- Phillies
-Bliss: Pitching wins in the playoffs, and the Phillies have it in spades. If Roy Oswalt is a bullpen pitcher in the playoffs for you, you are set.
-Orsi: I love the flair of the Rockies, plus the pitching is there for them this year.
WS Champ- Orsi- Red Sox, Bliss- White Sox
-Bliss: I like the combination of pitching and hitting in Chicago this year, specifically the addition of Adam Dunn. I just don’t trust the lineup of the Boston Red Sox. After this week, would you?
-Orsi: I’m stubborn, so yes, yes I would. There is just a slight case of homerism here.
Season Series:
PHI/ATL Season Series- Bliss- PHI, Orsi- ATL
-Bliss: Philly has the pitching, as I have said before...
-Orsi: We get it: they can pitch. They still don’t hit well or have a dependable closer.
-Bliss: Ryan Howard still plays for them, right? And since when is Brad Lidge a dependable closer? They’ve been there without one.
LAD/LAA Season Series- Bliss- LAA, Orsi-LAD
-Bliss: AL teams dominate in a vaccum, and I trust Sciosca more.
-Orsi: I like the Dodgers; the starting pitching is much better.
WAS/FLA Season Series- Bliss- FLA, Orsi- WAS
-Bliss: Washington has a baseball team? Florida still has Han-Ram and Josh Johnson right?
-Orsi: I own too much stake in the Washington bullpen. This is more optimism than anything.
-Bliss: You need mental help concerning your first sentence here.
Individual Performers:
Adam Jones 22.5 HRs- Bliss over, Orsi under
-Bliss: I love this guy. His hot start just make me feel better about this pick. I also like that lineup to give him opportunities.
-Orsi: His free swinging attitude is probably right for this, but I don’t think things are there quite yet.
Any pitcher over 237.5 Ks- Bliss- yes, Orsi- no
-Bliss: Just one needs to make it. I am slating at least Lincecum to get there, and his hot start makes feel pretty good about that. I like having the field.
-Orsi: Mike got me to go under by cozening me into it. Upon further research, here’s a free one for you, Mike.
Hanley Ramirez 60 HR/STLs- Bliss over, Orsi under
-Bliss: 30-30 is really doable. However, I think it will be more like 25 HRs, 37 steals. He is still supremely talented, and it is very much in reach.
-Orsi: He isn’t going to run that much, but the power number is right. Health plays into this as well- feel much safer going under.
Lee/Guerrero 40.5 HRs- Bliss- over, Orsi under
-Bliss: I actually think one is a productive 28 HR guy, and the other breaks down after about 15. I think that adds to over 40. Also, no, I don’t know which is which.
-Orsi: Hurray for washed up O’s! Like I said, washed up. Guerrero’s year last year should be a lucky one, and Lee never had consistent power.
-Bliss: It is possible, just possible, I may have not made a good decision here.
1.5 Cy Young winners with 15.5 wins- Bliss over, Orsi under
-Bliss: It was a rare occurrence last year when King Felix won that Cy Young without a high win total. Plus, Lincecum and Verlander will win at least 17 a piece and they are my picks.
-Orsi: Wins shouldn’t have the value that they used to, and it appears the voters went that way with Felix. Hopefully that continues.
Drew Storen 26.5 saves - Bliss under, Orsi over
-Bliss: The team is bad and so is he. The end.
-Orsi: It’s bound to be his job by June 1st and even bad teams can put up staggering amounts of save opps.
-Bliss: So you are confirming he doesn’t actually have the job right now and thus NOT COLLECTING SAVES?
-Orsi: I own the entire Nats bullpen between my 3 leagues. I am well versed in the matter.
-Bliss: I am sorry you are being put in that situation.
Lowest Phils ERA - Bliss Lee, Orsi Roy
-Bliss: Halladay had an awesome year and has more innings on his arm. Lee is back where he wanted to be, and his numbers will get BETTER from last year.
-Orsi: Halladay is a stud. Proven fact. He should be somewhere in the low 3s, as will Lee. It’s gonna be close.
50 combined HRs/Stls for Stubbs - Bliss under, Orsi over
-Bliss: Yeah, no. Also, no. That’s a lot of home runs. 20-20 is possible, but I am not sure he can put this together so quickly in his career.
-Orsi: More optimism. He’s batting leadoff, so the steal chances are definitely there. 20-30/25-25 is a top end estimate.
27.5 Home Runs, Pablo Sandoval - Bliss over, Orsi under
-Bliss: I believe in Kung Fu Panda. He is playing well, and should be able to dial in. Last year was an aberration.
-Orsi: I do not believe in the Kung Fu Panda. I just don’t see how he doesn’t break down as the season goes on- he’s a PANDA.
27.5 Home Runs, Paul Konerko - Bliss over, Orsi under
-Bliss: It doesn’t say it has to come with a great average or be way over....
-Orsi: He’s an aging star with a productive season or two left; not sure they are going to be that productive.
Carl Crawford .305 AVG- Bliss over, Orsi under
-Bliss: He will get it together and rake at Fenway. He needs to get comfortable soon though.
-Orsi: Comfort is definitely the issue. Batting leadoff may not be the thing for him and it could take a while to get the AVG back up from a possible slow start.
A-Rod 35.5 HRs- Bliss over, Orsi under
-Bliss: He has 1-2 more big years in him. He can do this easily with this lineup functioning the way it has. Health is of course a key, but he looks in wonderful shape and people aren’t all over him for some reason.
-Orsi: Is he on steroids this season or not? Seriously. Health is huge in this, so if he misses time, that’s a high number.
Cliff Lee 3.15 ERA- Bliss under, Orsi over
-Bliss: He’s good. He pitched well in the AL. He will be better in the NL. He’s done it before. Questions?
-Orsi: Lee is very good, but a low 3 ERA involves either ridiculous good stuff or luck.
.5 pitchers to win 21 or more games- Bliss over, Orsi under
-Bliss: Actually more a stretch than you think. But I think at least one emerges to get there. I will again be confident taking the field.
-Orsi: Starters don’t go as deep into games as they used to, so the chances for high win totals are much lower.
2.5 Phillies pitchers winning 19 or more games- Bliss over, Orsi under
-Bliss: Hamels and Oswalt can be reasonably expected to get 17, and Doc and Cliff will get 18-19. At least a few of them will get lucky in enough starts to jump over 18 wins. Health is the biggest key here.
-Orsi: Health is the key to this. If any two lose time, I’m looking good. The bullpen probably costs some wins here.
-Bliss: They play the Mets a lot.
Ichiro .315 AVG- Bliss over, Orsi under
-Bliss: I think Ichiro has at least 2-3 more good seasons in him. He pressed a little last year and still for an incredible average comparatively. I think he hits .325 easy. The runs are another story.
-Orsi: I think last year was the beginning of the decline. .300 is still entirely possible, but .315 is high.
-Bliss: Well, another year, 30 interesting ideas. Good luck Mr. Orsi. I will be sure to look you up in October.
-Orsi: Luck accepted, and it will be needed.
Good luck everyone in your leagues! Over under for the Red Sox to get 10 wins....June 1st? No, wait, don’t answer that.....
-BLISS
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