NBA 2011-2012 Prediction Column with the VP

Vishal Patel and I are bringing you an extremely rushed predictions column this year. Like the teams themselves, we have only a vague idea of how things are going to go. So here it is:

We are going to start by going through each team with the rankings from both the VP and myself, and our predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Bulls: MB 1, VP 1

VP: League MVP, a healthy starting frontcourt of Boozer and Noah, and great depth get them to the ECF again. Finally adding the veteran SG they’ve been looking for: that’s their ticket to the Finals this year (you thought I was going to go all MasterCard on you and say “priceless,” didn’t you?).

MB: Young legs, comeback season for Boozer and the integration of Rip makes this team better than ever.

HEAT: MB 2, VP 2

MB: Because of talent and youth they will be good, but they will suffer some injuries at some point and I am interested to see how they deal with that.

VP: The shortened season favors their young core and star-centric approach – and don’t sleep on Bosh, he will carry over his strong run from last season’s playoffs (and make people realize that his diverse skill set is the most dangerous offensive threat the Heat have).

Pacers: MB 3, VP 6

MB: I love this team. Good leadership, positional flexibility, motivation, talent. They have a deep enough roster to survive the season, which is why I am putting these here. I also LOVE David West.

VP: New hotness. They have a young, exciting backcourt, got a great upgrade at PF in David West, and more than enough depth to survive this season’s schedule. And just in case you missed it: they have a hyper-athletic, 6’10’’ shooting guard (!) who is finally going to get playing time- I am so excited to see this team in action.

Hawks: MB 5, VP 3

VP: Hawks – No more Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby, flexible and athletic roster (including a leaner, meaner Josh Smith), and Joe Johnson’s last good year all add up to a strong win total.

MB: Youth, new PG depth, and a resurgent Joe Johnson gets them a nice win total.

Knicks: MB 4, VP 4

MB: Awesome front court, and they'll hold on until Baron is healthy in the back. Still, one injury would kill them.
VP: They do have great size in their frontline, but only one player on it can actually play defense. And their backcourt is going to be horrendous until Baron Davis can get healthy (not to mention in shape-Baron is notorious for coming into the season overweight and out of shape and using the early slate of games to get into game condition, and with the shortened season…). What are the chances a team banking on Baron, Amare, and Tyson as 3 of their top 4 gets through a condensed season injury-free? 10% at best? At least their rookies look good.

Celtics: MB 6, VP 5

VP: Old and busted. All those back-to-back (to-backs) and old knees means this season will not end well for their veterans, and an unhappy Rondo is definitely not going to help matters.

MB: Enough veteran moxie and a pissed off Rondo vault them this far. They want to get in and avoid the Bulls/Heat in round 1. Seeds 3-6 do that equally well.

Magic: MB 7, VP 7

VP: They’ll pick up a good amount of wins before Dwight leaves around the trade deadline, which will probably allow them to slip into the postseason.

MB: They are good enough with either Dwight or his replacements to get this many wins.

Nets: MB 8, VP 10

MB: This is simply my declaration of faith in Deron Williams and my denunciation of the Eastern Conference. Also, I have an unhealthy affection for Mehmet Okur.

VP: They have Deron Williams, so there is a small chance they could win a few games they weren’t supposed to and sneak in to the postseason, especially if Lopez makes it back in time.

Bucks: MB 11, VP 8

VP: Jennings will put his sophomore slump behind him, and Bogut and co. will make just enough teams fear the deer to put themselves in contention for the playoffs.

MB: Just good enough to be mediocre. Oh, and probably get Skiles fired.

Sixers: MB 9, VP 9

MB: Good team but until they turn the keys over to Evan Turner and he then does something with it, I don’t see this team mattering.

VP: They have one of the league’s best young PGs in Jrue Holiday and enough experience in Iguodala and Brand to fight for the chance to lose in the first round.

Wizards: MB 13, VP 11

VP: John Wall is obviously great, but without any good veterans to guide this young team, they’ll have to settle for the consolation prize of a lottery pick in a strong draft.

MB: Andre Blatche still on this team? Kay, moving on.

Raptors: MB 10, VP 13

MB: Sneaky team with young legs (Davis, Bayless, DeMar, etc) and some veteran leadership (Calderon). But overall, not enough.

VP: Lot of young pieces that are showing signs of growth, but they’re still going to be getting a lottery pick at the next draft.

Pistons: MB 12, VP 12

MB: No sense in this team's construction. Has young legs and depth, but with no true PGs or Centers.

VP: What happened, Joe Dumars? Why does Kahn’s team look better than yours?

Cavs: MB 14, VP 14

MB: Yeah, no. Just too young, and there isn’t enough talent here.

VP: Irving was the right choice at #1, but that doesn’t help the fact that this team has no other promising player other that Tristan Thompson.

Bobcats: MB 15, VP 15

MB: Might be the worst roster I've seen in a long time. Kwame leaving made them worse. Sit on that for a minute.
VP: I feel bad for Kemba.

Thunder: MB 2, VP 1

VP: Durant and Westbrook are going to be just fine together, and it’s no longer a secret that Harden and Ibaka are good. Now that they’ll have a full season with Perkins, this team is ready to truly contend.

MB: This team will be really good simply because of Durant-Westbrook. However, Harden will have a breakthrough and score near 20 points per game. That is in part good but also bad because it will happen in part because there is an injury coming somewhere from the high usage of their stars.

Mavs: MB 1, VP 3

VP: The reigning champions lost a big piece of their winning formula in Tyson, but the Odom acquisition is going to allow Carlisle to have a lot of fun with his matchups. Case-in-point: the Odom and Nowitzki pick and roll, which Sebastian Pruiti (and Bliss) got me all hyped about on Grantland.

MB: Champs did lose Tyson but Odom makes them more versatile and able withstand nights off for Dirk or Marion and still field a viable team. I think Delonte will allow the same flexibility with Kidd and Terry.

Grizzlies: MB 4, VP 2

VP: My favorite dark horse pick is finally going to be a top seed! People seem to have forgotten how good Rudy Gay is, and the Grizzlies will give their opponents fits with their low post combo of Zach and Gasol and their obscene amount of depth.

MB: This team is extremely strong up front and the front court of Rudy-ZBo-MGasol rivals NY's. Actually, that would be a fascinating Finals...

Nuggets: MB 3, VP 7

VP: Lawson is fantastic, and this team’s depth will be enough to let them win a lot of those back-to-backs. Too bad 3 of their guys are stuck in China.

MB: Go ten deep. They will have 5 games in 7 days and win all 5 many times. I like their second unit as much as their first. Also….GALLO!!!!!!!!

Blazers: MB 5, VP 4

MB: Despite Roy and Oden I love this team. They pass the 2K test. Crash-LA-Camby is a lesser version of Melo-Amare-Tyson but actually similarly effective. Love the Batum/Craw/Wes Matthews rotation.

VP: Aldridge has continued to bulk up and improve his game every year, and a supporting cast of Camby/Wallace/Matthews/ Batum/Felton/Crawford is more than enough to guarantee a playoff spot. Plus, they’re still insanely tough to beat at home with that devoted fan base.

Lakers: MB 6, VP 5

MB: Experience, plus they are still going to get someone else with that exception.

VP: Doubt them all you want, but Gasol will bounce back, Kobe’s blood doping during the offseason will stave off Father Time for one more year, and that trade exception will turn into something decent.

Spurs: MB 8, VP 6

VP: Don’t forget, they had the league’s best record last year, and Duncan’s in great shape to start the season (he knows this is probably his last real chance). The schedule is not in their favor, but their experience will be enough to make up for it.

MB: Under/over of January 31st for when Pop sits all of his starters for a three game stretch and Stern fines the Spurs 2000000 and 2 picks.

Clippers: MB 7, VP 9

VP: Don’t get me wrong, I’m as excited for Lob City as the next guy, but this is still Sterling’s team, and the Clipper curse has never looked more ominous now that it has 4 knees to target between Paul and Griffin. More importantly, they’ll need a SG and frontcourt depth if they want to succeed during the condensed regular season.

MB: Chris Paul or Blake will get injured. They have two good knees between them and this is the Clippers after all. But it will fun while it lasts. I do disagree with VP on one point: Billups will be fine at SG. He did it at Worlds and it will work here.

Rockets: MB 9, VP 11

MB: Morey says the worst thing is to be .500. No playoffs, no lottery picks. Well Daryl...you'll be .500.
VP: They’ll be better with Dalembert’s arrival, but will Scola and Martin be able to put aside any hurt feelings from the failed CP3 trade?

Jazz: MB 14, VP 8

MB: What did adding Josh Howard add to this team? Too many bigs, all their team looks like trading chips or "could be goods".

VP: This team screams impending trade; they have 3 great PFs and no other pieces (Harris is too injury-prone to be reliable).

Suns: MB 10, VP 10

MB: Simply because of Steve Nash. That's it.

VP: Steve Nash has taken worse groups to the playoffs.

Hornets: MB 12, VP 12

VP: Monty Williams will keep them somewhat competitive.  Eric Gordon is a stud; he’ll mesh well with Jarrett Jack, a PG who likes to masquerade as a SG from time to time, since he can handle the ball.

MB: Well, you have two centers, but overall they are kind of competent. Gordon will win them some games but this will actually get worse over the next two years until it gets better.

Warriors: MB 11, VP 14

MB: I got them as high as 11 simply because I believe in the offensive savant, Stephen Curry.
VP: This team will be fun to watch, but will lose most of their games, just like Minny. But, Monta!

T’Wolves: MB 13, VP 13

MB: Could actually jump into the next level due to a real talent level (Rubio!), but probably not quite yet.

VP: This team will be fun to watch… even though they’ll lose most of their games. Rubio!

Kings: MB 15, VP 15

MB: Obviously the worst team in the West, Jimmer will get scored on, Tyreke continues to create layup lines on both ends, and DeMarcus will probably punch both of them at some point.

VP: Cousins will take a huge step forward on the court… and probably an equally big one backwards off the court. Jimmer!

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

Western Conference Finals:

VP: The Thunder takes down the Mavericks, who cannot stop Durant/Westbrook/Harden from getting to the hoop without Tyson, in a reversal of fortunes from last year.

MB: I have the Thunder over the Grizzlies, mainly because the Griz will take out the Mavs the round before this. Durant is already rising as the clutch scorer that you need in the playoffs.

Eastern Conference Finals:

VP: Bulls vanquishes everyone’s favorite villain, the HEAT, who could not contend with Chicago’s size down low (Noah/Gibson/Asik/Boozer).

MB: I have the Bulls over the Knicks. I don’t think the HEAT get to the conference finals because the Knicks take them out the round before. The penetration of Rose and matchup abilities with the 3 and 4 spots get the Bulls the win over the Knicks.

NBA Finals:

VP: OKC grinds out a championship as a result of a stellar defensive performance by Westbrook (and Durant being his beastly self).

MB: I also have the Thunder rising over the Bulls, mainly because again the Bulls fall to having too much emphasis on Rose and Westbrook could be the only one to really shut him down.

STATISTICS AND AWARDS

*All Stat Titles Provided by VP

Points (Alpha Dog) – We agree on Durant.

Rebounds (Mister Clean) – We agree on Love.

Assists (Giving Tree) – VP: Nash, MB: Rondo

Steals (Robber Baron) – VP: Westbrook, MB: Rondo

Blocks (David Stern) – VP: McGee, MB: Dwight Howard

Most Valuable Player:

VP: Derrick Rose repeats since the Bulls NEED him to win; LeBron gave up any chance of winning it again now that he’s Wade’s #2, and Durant won’t get it because of Westbrook and Harden’s rise.

MB: Kevin Durant will score so much and the Thunder may post a truly impressive win total. Like Aaron Rodgers, it seems to be more like “well, he’s already one of the best, it’s time we give it to him” sentiment. Rose has too much chance to regress even 5% or get hurt. Durant makes the most sense. Don’t sleep on Kobe Bryant though.

Defensive Player of the Year:

VP: Yawn, Dwight Howard. It’d be nice if someone else other than Dwight got a look from the media, but Dwight’s domination of the headlines due to his impending trade (and the slight advantage of being in the top 3 in blocks and rebounds) means he gets this award again.

MB: Rajon Rondo. I know, it is crazy. I had D12 too, but that is boring. I picked Rondo to lead the league in steals and I think he has an amazingly powerful eff-you campaign. The voters want someone different than D12 and if he is traded they may not look kindly to his split campaign.

Rookie of the Year: We agree on Kyrie due to opportunity and talent both.  

Most Improved:

MB: Danilo Gallinari. He will get more shots with JR Smith and Wilson Chandler, was improving late last year anyways, and because I think Harden will win 6^th man someone else has to win this.

VP: James Harden and his impending breakout season are a lock for this award.

Sixth Man: We both agree on Harden due to his development, and the Odom, Terry pairing canceling each other out.

Well, this should be an interesting season. Thanks to VP for the varying points of view, and despite the craziness it should be a great season.

MIKE BLISS