I am really excited for the
NBA season.
Don’t get me wrong, I am
pretty much always into basketball. I love fantasy hoops: I consider it the
best fantasy sport because it is longer than football, but retains the stat
focus of baseball without being so insufferably long. Basketball itself is the
most personal of sports, easily accessible to the common folk, affordable to go
to in person, and decently good with advanced stats. So I love it very much.
But what is surprising is that
I am even thinking about it on October 25th. Normally even though I love
basketball, pro football is keeping me occupied. Even though I am not the
biggest fan of college football, I probably have watched more of that in
November the last few years than hoops. I don’t get into hoops fully until the
turn of the new year (those Christmas games are my turnover point).But for this
season I am locked in already, and cannot wait until tip off. I have drafts on
Monday and am pumped. So, let’s do some predictions!
Western Conference Playoff
Prediction:
1. Spurs over 8. Wolves
2. Thunder over 7. Mavs
6. Grizz over 3. Clippers
4. Dubs over 5. Rockets
1. Spurs over 4. Dubs
2. Thunder over 6. Grizz
1. Spurs over 2. Thunder, -Leonard makes the LEAP and shuts down Durant.
Easter Conference Playoff
Prediction:
1. Bulls over 8. Pistons
2. HEAT over 7. Wizards
3. Pacers over 6. Cavs
4. Nets over 5. Knicks
1. Bulls over 4. Nets
3. Pacers over 2. HEAT
3. Pacers over 1. Bulls, -If Thibs manages his minutes, he
can win this. So the Pacers win.
NBA Finals: Spurs over Pacers in 5
-Leonard
dominates, limiting Paul George. Parker will be awesome as well,
Duncan only has to play Hibbert to a stalemate. The Spurs benefit from the new Finals format (Finally
a 2-2-1-1-1). Duncan and
probably Pop walk off into the sunset. Ginobili limps off. Pacers are disappointed, but will be viable for the next half decade as it is clear Paul George is a dominant player.
All NBA Teams:
1. CP3, Harden, Lebron, Durant,
Dwight
2. Parker, Rose, Paul George,
Love, Marc Gasol
3. Rubio, Curry, Melo, Blake,
Dirk
D. Avery Bradley, Tony Allen,
Paul George, Lebron, Ibaka
R. Oladipo, McLemore, Anthony
Bennett, Zeller, Olynyk
20 Proclamations and
Predictions:
1. Bulls will lead the league
in wins, just slightly over the Spurs. And everyone will marvel at the two of
them doing so. The HEAT are declining, and the Thunder won’t be at full strength
for a while, so this was actually easy. The Bulls continue to grind out wins,
costing them health in the playoffs.
2. The Pacers’ bench makes
the difference in the Eastern Finals, as the big difference from what happened
last year. The math on the previous round versus the HEAT was pretty easily
actually: Wade/Allen are declining, and Shane Battier probably goes off a
cliff. Paul George got better, and they get contributions from Granger and Luis
Scola when they didn’t before. So, go Pacers, go!
3. Pau Gasol has a really
efficient and productive year, finally in an offensive system with him at
center than features his ability to pass, be creative near the rim, and hit
longer jumpers. Just no 3s Pau, please.
4. Kevin Love leads the
league in boards, and has over 4 offensive rebounds a game. Rubio leads it in assists,
as a combination of minutes/opportunities/game flow. Heck, he’ll lead it in
steals as well (that’s not as out there, look at the numbers).
5. Wade finally regresses to a point where we cannot ignore it and Bosh is CLEARLY their second best player, without argument.
6. Victor Oladipo or Kelly
Olynyk wins the Rookie of the Year. Probably VO, but Olynyk could have one weird statline.
7. The Lakers hit a ton of
threes. Not only do they now have time with D’Antoni and Nash to run this
thing, but ANYONE shooting over Metta is better, so Nick Young and Xavier Henry
fill it up, even if it isn’t crazy efficient. Oh, but the Lakers divebomb and
win 30 games because their defensive finishes dead last. You heard me.
Nash/Kobe on one leg/Nick Young/person X at PF/old Pau. Holy crap are people
going to score on them.
8. The Nets look good but not
elite all year, and never really turn it on in the playoffs. However, it is
injuries not to “injury prone” Brook Lopez or “old” Pierce and Garnett that do
them in, but Deron Williams.
9. Dirk has a career capping season,
dropping something like 23.5 PPG, 8 RPG on a 50-40-90 shooting season and the
Mavs are a really efficient offensive team behind Jose Calderon.
10. Durant wins the MVP due
to voter fatigue, a slightly better record than the HEAT, and his “stepping up
when Westbrook was gone”. Lebron deserves it by all stats, but Durant will get
it.
11. Serge Ibaka wins
Defensive Player of the Year, not just for the blocks, but some increased positional
defense and time at center.
12. Rick Adelman wins Coach
of the Year, even though we already knew he was great.
13. The Wizards are good,
watchable, and give someone a scare in the first round.
14. The Cavs look good on
paper, but overall crash due to injuries and ill fits. This team looks
drastically different 12 months from now.
15. None of us will know what
to do with Andre Drummond. He is a combination of young Shaq/Andries Biedrins/Javale
McGee/Andre Blatche/DeMarcus Cousins. For those wondering if that is a
compliment or insult….yes.
16. Sixth Man of the Year is
a somewhat underwhelming race, but Reggie Jackson gets it because he gets a lot
of counting stats while Westbrook is gone.
17. There will be multiple
trades in the middle of the season, much more exciting than last year. These
will heavily include the Blazers and Hawk among others, because the pieces for
both those teams are just so tradable.
18. The Knicks kind of fall
apart, and Melo definitively leaves. Next year they win 20 games behind a core
of Felton/Iman/JR Smith/Bargnani/Tyson as four of those guys are really
declining by then.
19. Asik is traded to the
Pelicans as their season crashes due to problems at the swing and defense by
Ryan Anderson. Anderson going to Houston makes the Rockets fun to watch and
makes Harden excel. Asik lets Anthony Davis dominate at the 4.
20. Harden finishes out of
the top 5 in real life MVP votes, but is the number 1 fantasy player with one
of the more balanced efficiency/usage combinations in recent history. I am thinking
a 24.5/5.5/8/45-40-88 with 2 steals, lower TOs, and a ton of FT makes at a
scarce position.
Happy NBA Season everyone!
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