NFL 2018 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Divisional Round Predictions

A good wild card round netted me a 4-0 record ATS. I am still looking for my first 11-0 post season in a major sport, let’s keep on that quest here.

Colts +5.5 over Chiefs, 30-28

-Okay, the Chiefs were great this season. To be sure, they had the most explosive, fluid offense this year. However, the Chiefs have been frontrunners a little bit. They scored first so often, ran up first quarter double digit leads, and could tee off with pass rushers. The Chiefs have had the sort of bad half of the season that sometimes results from too much easy early success. They performed worse down the stretch, could not put together 4 quarters of good offense, and the run defense can get exposed. However, it may not matter, because 20 minutes of the Chiefs being fully turned on can be enough to win the game anyways. But I believe in the Colts now. They play close, they’ve had good wins, bad wings, good losses, and bad losses. They machine out points and can explode for them. But offensive and defensive lines matter so much right now, I can’t ignore how good the Colts have been. I believe in their ability to go up early. I believe in their ability to hold serve score for score, and I believe in their ability to come back from a deficit. That’s enough for me to take the 5.5.

Rams -7 over Cowboys, 27-19

-McVay over the Clapper is pretty much this pick. The Rams have not been right the last month or so, but they did enough to earn a bye with 13 wins and have had the bye week to regroup. The Cowboys are still more limited than they should be on offense, and don’t execute in key situations when they need to. The Rams will be able to spread them out and blow this out. Cowboys can and should run Zeke into the ground, but this might be where the overpriced and underperforming defensive investments come up big for the Rams. LA will probably double Cooper, and we will see if Dak can find other options to score at the level they will need to for victory to be possible for Dallas.

Pats -4 over Chargers, 33-27

-Okay, truth be told the Chargers are a better team. They proved themselves to be fluid and dynamic, especially in how they dealt with Baltimore last week. Their defense is well suited to stopping modern offenses, and should line up with the Pats. But the thing is this is being played in NE, it will be cold and potentially snowing, Rivers has never beaten Brady, and the travel is piling up for the Chargers. The Pats have been at home for the better part of a month now, and played games versus Buffalo, the Jets, and had a week off. The Chargers played Baltimore, went to Denver, and went to Baltimore. Physically, the Pats are just in a much better place and for the first time all year will have had some time to sit and intentionally put together their offense. I think it will pay off in a big way this week with a strong win.

Saints -8 over Eagles, 37-26

-Okay, I know the record for Foles in the playoffs. But I truly believe the Saints are the best team this season, and a week off will do nicely to settle some nagging injuries. We saw this fight a few months ago, with the Saints making it more of a rout. I’m not sure what has changed over than Foles, and Foles isn’t a new set of good defensive backs. Saints roll over this one en route to the NFC title game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 4-0

Record in 2018:

Straight Up: 150-85

By Spread: 122-110

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1412-769
By Spread: 1159-1023