NFL 2010 Conference Championship Predictions

Conference Championship Round

So, let’s go back to the beginning. Back to the basics. We came into this season knowing a few things about these final four teams.

We KNEW Green Bay was going to a juggernaut. They were going to roll to 13 wins or so, and Aaron Rodgers was the MVP favorite going in. Then injuries hit, and it looked derailed. Chicago dominated the division. They snuck in with a 6 seed. Rodgers suffered two concussions. And yet, here they are.

We KNEW Pittsburgh was a very talented team but was going to be derailed by Ben’s four-game suspension. And even when he was back, it a distraction. Ben got hurt. So did Polamalu. Baltimore finally beat them. And yet, here they are.

We KNEW the Jets were good. Super Bowl favorites even. Then New England rose up and squashed the division. 45-3 happened. The Jets backed into the playoffs, and Sanchez’s skills regressed big time. And yet, here they are.

We KNEW Chicago had a decent defense. But they still had Cutler and who knew how Martz was going to work out. Cutler was vintage Cutler early on, and then when he missed time they had some of the worst showings this year. Even when they rolled a little bit they got embarrassed at home versus New England. It looked like they were going to go nowhere. And yet, here they are.

So, these are our final four. No New England, New Orleans, Baltimore, or Philadelphia. Pretty much no one had these as their final four. I feel good just to have my pre season Super Bowl Champ pick Green Bay still involved. Let’s do it.

Before I get to the picks, I want to examine the state of the QB in the NFL. The elder generation of Brady/Brees/Manning is set and done. They have been great, and will continue to be the elite for a few more years. Also, we have some young stars coming up that may develop into the elite later. Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, and Sam Bradford look ready to progress at least a little further (and a lot in Bradford’s case). Rivers and Schaub look firmly entrenched as the Dan Marino big stats no playoff win QBs. Eli Manning and Carson Palmer throw way too many picks to be taken seriously most of the time, and Hasselbeck and McNabb just need to retire.

So that pretty much leaves us with Cutler, Sanchez, Rodgers and Ben. Cutler has been inconsistent from the beginning of his career. He has attitude. He dates badly. And he won his first playoff game last week (High School, College, Pro, look it up). But, he has a laser arm. He can dissect the field and make a 40 yard TD look easy. (He can also throw 4 INTs to DeAngelo Hall in one game, but hey, we cheered for Favre, didn’t we?) He definitively has potential. Martz had the potential to work with Cutler and maximize his skills.

Sanchez is an enigma. I have no idea what to make of him. He is less along in terms of progress compared to Ryan, Flacco, and Freeman and has been in the league for less time than them. He has had major injuries to knees and shoulders. Mark has no dominating skill. His numbers are somewhere between mediocre and bad. But he wins.

Maybe there is more to him I am not seeing. In Bill Simmons’ last column he conveyed a story that Sanchez has that “something” about him. If he, Matt Ryan, Stafford, Rodgers, and Bradford all got into a car, Sanchez is driving. I chewed that one over for a while, and considered what that meant. He has a leadership quality, a cockiness that pervades the Jets team. And so he may continue this career of being effective but not look very pretty. I mean, with another road playoff win which he can get this week, he will have the most ever road playoff wins. That is crazy.

Big Ben is strange. He is cross generational. I say that because we have the Brady/Manning/Brees 32ish generation. And then we have all the young guys. Ben is right in the middle. While he was drafted with guys like Eli and Rivers, he had success so much earlier due to his defense and running game. He has two rings and could be on the way to a third. He has a high winning percentage in both the regular and post seasons. He seems to overcome injuries, both to himself and the team. And he wins.

He is also, by all accounts, a jerk who is a crashes motorcycles, engages in some big time indiscretions with women, and in general has been a self consumed idiot. We’ve cheered for worse, but he’s not my favorite person. Still, his resume is tough to argue with. And he has to fight through Baltimore every year, not an easy thing to do.

This leaves me with Rodgers. I wrote last week that if he wins the Super Bowl he jumps into the elite in the league. He is fresh, only having 3 seasons under his belt. However, he is very experienced, having sat for a few years and watched Favre. He can play in the cold, and also in domes. He has arm strength, accuracy, and speed. He makes his teammates better, and is now quickly becoming America’s favorite QB in the playoffs. He singlehandedly moved the line in this GB-CHI game about 3 points, perhaps more. So let’s see.

In some way, these four QBs will play key roles in the next half dozen seasons and playoffs. It is unavoidable. I personally am excited for Cutler’s pick sixes. Hey, it’s impact, right?

The Picks:

Packers -3.5 over Bears, 33-21

-Okay, I expect this game to be marked by big plays and mistakes. Between the special teams (awesome), the fast DBs on each side, WRs streaking down the field, there could be several over 40 yard plays. I think this is a pretty safe over, and the point spread won’t matter. So it becomes a choice of who will win.

For me, it is the Packers, and it isn’t close. The QB+HC works out for the Packers in both matchups. I don’t trust Martz, Lovie, or Cutler in a playoff game. I trust Rodgers and somewhat trust McCarthy (someone just needs to challenge for him). Green Bay is rolling now and the Bears are decently cold (no pun intended). I like taking big play defenses in the playoffs, and I think Green Bay can torture Chicago’s offensive line. The corners can dominate the WRs of the Bears 1:1, letting them blitz. Heaven knows the Bears cannot really run with any kind of consistency. Running is so important in the playoffs, but it is a wash here. Neither can do it well, both defend it well. However, Green Bay is MUCH better at short yardage (John Kuhn everybody).

I think the Pack wins convincingly, and the Bears only close the gap with a late score to make it a respectable point difference. That the Bears let the Seahawks get close in the end was a red flag to me that this is the Packers’ game to win. The Bears cannot clamp down and end it. They cannot dominate, just stay in it and hope to ride out the win. The Packers will throw it all over them.

Steelers -3.5 over Jets, 27-20

-Here we go. First, let me say in all honesty, I hate this game. I want to cry. Especially because the Pats could have crunched the Steelers had they won (sans Brady’s broken foot). I hate both these teams.

So, with that out of the way, let’s unpack this. The Steelers were better all year and more consistent. They have more experience in the playoffs. Their defense is better, and more diverse. They have home field. Despite the Jets winning 4 in a row on the road on the playoffs, I think it finally catches up to them. Home field in Pittsburgh is a tough environment. Nick Folk is going to have a cow kicking field goals.

The coaches are about equal. Skill positions are relatively equal. However, you can be sure the Steelers will not let old friend Holmes work them over. Injuries favor the Jets, with the Steelers light on lineman. However, they have won with that all year. However, the big difference is at QB. Ben is decently healthy and playing so well. He is a difference maker. Sanchez can be, but he is so due for a dumb game changing interception touchdown. Ben will make a play when Sanchez will give one away.

These two teams played this year, and while the Jets won it gave me the data I needed to tell me to pick the Steelers. The Jets desperately needed that game. The Steelers did not. They still almost got it. Enough said.

So, those are the in game reasons why I am going with the Steelers. Outside reasons? Well, footballoutsiders.com had the Steelers close to Pats all year in DVOA, and I have trusted them so far. Also, two 6 seeds advancing to the Super Bowl would be near apocalyptic. So would both home field teams losing in the Conference Championship round. I am so sure of the Packers, it just makes sense for the Steelers to win.

So, I think we get two weeks of “Rodgers the golden boy from Cali” vs. “Ben the ruffian who could be in jail seeking redemption” storylines. Because hey, the NFL is about quarterbacks, right?

Record last week:

Straight up: 2-2

Against the Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight up: 135-55

Against the Spread: 109-92

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 253-133
Against the Spread: 209-178

BLISS