NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Divisional Round NFL predictions:

            It has been a wild playoffs already. This weekend is filled with rematches and tough divisional rivalries in the AFC, which is really how it should be. These four teams have been the class of the AFC all along. I wrote a column about them four weeks ago. It is fitting that Baltimore and Pittsburgh fight for a birth to the conference title game, and the Jets have to get by New England.

            Meanwhile, we have two interesting storylines in the NFC. When the Hawks got the Saints, we were all excited at how badly they were going to get beaten. Of course, they won. However, the, um, enterprising among us immediately looked until next week and said, okay, now they really get beaten down. And then they got the Bears.

            See, the Bears are "for real". Sure, they aren't' perfect, but they are pretty good. But, they were the best team for the Seahawks to get.  The Bears could implode like no other. The Seahawks have experience at QB (a major plus in the playoffs) and the skill position advantage is not major. So, this game is really interesting.

            And then we have GB-ATL, in my opinion, it is the marquee game. Green Bay is the team that had all the excitement and buzz coming into the season. Aaron Rodgers got all the buzz. They disappointed, mostly due to injury and a strange early season loss to the Bears and a confounding loss to the Lions late where the scored under 10 points.

            Then we have ATL. They were supposed to be good not great. They played within the Saints division. They grind out games. They don't have truly explosive players. So, no one saw them running off such a dominant regular season, especially with Michael Turner being good not great.

            So, with ATL rolling (and almost never losing at home) and GB getting in but barely winning and severely injured....Green Bay is favored of course. (GB is +2.  Home field gets you 3, so Vegas is saying they actually favor GB in this game).

Let's get to the picks:


Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, 20-16
-Baltimore will win for pretty much one reason: pass rush. I think they get Big Ben at least 4 times. Baltimore is on right now, Suggs especially. And the Steelers offensive line is a wreck. I also think Ed Reed is going to introduce himself to Mr. Wallace and he won't be a huge factor. We know that the running games will be taken out, so that really isn’t a factor.

The passing game doesn’t favor the Steelers’ secondary either. After the first two corners, they have some serious depth issues. I think Heap, Boldin, TJ Housh, and Mason will run through them as long as Michael Oher and the Baltimore line can give Flacco time, and I believe they well. Flacco has done this before: he pulled out a win late in Pittsburgh this year. He can pull this off and elevate himself to a new nationally recognized level. And I believe that he will.

Green Bay +2.5 over Falcons, 33-24
-Okay, I know I basically made the counter argument to this pick in my preamble, but here me out. The Pack are due for an offensive explosion. The ATL secondary scares me. The Packers defensive is playing so well. There is no way ATL is better than Philly on offense.

However, the reason I have come to this conclusion is my QB-Coach corollary. Rodgers>Ryan, or at least more explosive. And yes, McCarthy>Smith. Green Bay's coach has Andy Reid's worst in game management tendencies, but like Reid he prepares his team really well. And Atlanta is a team that can jumped on and cannot score enough to win in a tight short time situation (see the Saints game). Overall, GB is just too explosive. I think Jennings has a huge game. My comparison is simple: The Pack beat an explosive Eagles team with a ton of drops by WRs. That won’t happen again. And Roddy White can be taken out by Charles Woodson/Tramon Williams. And then the Falcons will be stuck. Thus, the Packers win impressively.

I will say whether Green Bay wins or Atlanta comes up big, this game will probably have the NFC winner and the team to go to the Super Bowl. So, it warrants greater attention.

Bears -10 over Seahawks, 34-13
-I know, I seem to contradict myself again. However, hear this out. I just don't see them covering. If the Bears implode and the Seahawks play great, the talent differential is such that it will result in a single digit win for the Seahawks. That scenario has like a 20% chance to happen. It would just take too many things happening at once to come to fruition.

The other 80% of the time, here is what happens. The Bears score large amounts of points early and often. The Seahawks defense cannot keep up with Knox and Hester. The Seahawks offense is grounded because Lynch will get nothing versus the Bears defense and Hasselbeck looks like he has for much of the last three years: old with little arm strength or consistency. Special Teams gives the Seahawks no advantage because the Bears are good there too. And thus the decision is a landslide for the Bears. Which is probably what will happen, and the Bears will roll.

 Patriots -8.5 over Jets, 37-17

-I know, wow right. Here we go:

The teams were 1-1 versus each other. The Jets won early in the season when they had a ton of luck and got NE in its pre-molt phase. Later on in the rematch, NE was rounding into shape and the Jets were going in the other direction. We know what happened next.

So, what has changed since then? Well, the Jets backed into the playoffs. They barely beat a flawed and hurting Colts team. Sanchez has regressed AND got hurt. The backs have continued to get hurt/old. The defensive has lost its starting safety and 3^rd cornerback. It just lost its right tackle (who incidentally knew the Pats well, a bigger loss than you would think). And Rex Ryan was involved in a kind of videotaping incident that even Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick would be embarrassed about.

Meanwhile the Pats never let up on their momentum. The offense, if anything, has continued to develop and evolve into a beast that matches up so well with the Jets defense (Revis is useless because he takes out Branch or Welker, which really doesn’t have a great effect). The defense has continued to grow. Devin McCourty is better prepared to take out Santonio Holmes. The Pats even lit up the Dolphins on the final week of the season using second and third stringers versus Dolphins first stringers that were playing for jobs and for their coach. A week off is just deadly for Belichick.

So, I think this is pretty one sided. NE should roll over them. I think Sanchez has three turnovers all by himself. I don’t see them having a great running game, and I think Brady dices them to death anyways. The TEs should have huge games because of the lack of coverage LBs and young small safeties the Jets use. The home field is vital. And somehow, even these 14-2 Pats with their MVP are somehow getting overshadowed by the Jets in the media. It is not quite “nobody believes in us” but it is pretty close. Belichick embraces this like no other coach, and his team focuses.

The result? NE shuts up the Jets and moves ahead to prepare for a beaten up AFC North team.

                                                                                                                 

No matter the results, we are going to have an AFC East vs. AFC North Championship game, which feels rights, and will be a great game. In the NFC, the Championship round will feature a decently heavy favorite and an underdog, making for another good set up. Good luck.

Record last week:

Straight up: 2-2

Against the Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight up: 133-53

Against the Spread: 107-90

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 251-131
Against the Spread: 207-176