Recaping my Preseason Predictions

I wanted to take an opportunity to recap some of my early season predictions. This is for closure, to somehow construct a review of the regular season, and also to make it seem like I know what I am doing. And here we go:

Preseason Predictions:

Patriots over 9.5 wins: WIN

-Well, I got that right. I actually saw them getting their wins early, but they were ripping them off over the second half of the season. Either way, I thought they would be good, and I got on the money. Safe pick though.

Colts over 10.5 wins: LOSS

-Well, I predicted they would score, win their division again, I was just 1 win off. They had done 11 wins or better 7 straight years, and got 10 this year. Hopefully we get lucky and the number is 9.5 next year, jump all over that if it happens.

Packers over 9.5 wins: WIN

-I liked them to dominate, and fully believe they would have without all the injuries. If you told me then they would lose so many key players, lose unfortunately at CHI last minute, and miss Rodgers for 1 game and parts of 2 others and still go 10-6, I would have laughed at you.

Packers to win division: LOSS

-Bears came out of nowhere, but hey, give them credit. I got the Pack as a playoff team, so I’ll take it.

AFC South, best division record: PUSH

-Tied with AFC East. In Carolina had been 1 game better, they would have won. NFC South nearly gave us 3 playoff teams, so with more above .500 teams for the NFC South than AFC East, I say the essence of this prediction was a win.

NFC West, worst division record: WIN

-Seattle is going to the playoffs at 7-9. Not even going to comment further.

11.5 TDs+ on Randy Moss: LOSS, ouch

-The funny thing is, despite not playing well for NE and even worse for the Vikings, he still was on a TD per game pace the first 5 games of the season. However, he would not score again, needing only 7 TDs in 11 games. Let’s see where he lands next year.

1050+ yards for Larry Fitzgerald: WIN

-Should have been easier than it was, but he did end up clearing it by 100 or so. They really did have no one else to throw it to. He’ll do it again next year too.

60%+ for Kevin Kolb: WIN

-This was a strange prediction, but one of the ones I was most confident of, because of the West Coast offense and good RBs catching the ball at a great %. But, there is an interesting story attached if anyone was actually following this one. Kolb completed 50% of his passes in the first game before getting knocked out, so I thought this was a loss once Vick took over and ran with it (pun intended). However, Vick got hurt, Kolb played a few weeks at like 67% completion, and this one was secure.

Record: 5-3-1

5-1 odds on Andre Johnson to lead NFL in Receiving: LOSS

-The odds were very good, and considering he missed 3 games and parts of 2 others, this worked out well despite not working out.

3-1 odds on Chris Johnson to lead the NFL in rushing yards: LOSS
-It felt like a painful season, but he was actually firmly in the top 5 in rushing. In retrospect, the odds were inflated because of his hype, but I still did pretty well.

MVP 15-1 odds on Tony Romo: LOSS

-Injury killed this one, but he was having a killer season otherwise. I still like what the odds were, and would investigate this again next year because A. they will be even better and B. he plays for such a popular team that would be coming back from a down year.

MVP 5-1 odds on Aaron Rodgers: LOSS

-Still love the odds, and he will likely come in the top five, which is essentially a push at 5-1 odds.

-These 4 odds predictions are meant to be understood relatively to the ratio given. So, while none of the four hit, I still feel like all but the Romo prediction are close enough that my intent and evaluation was on target.

Week 1 Predictions:

Overall,

Saints win NFC South, Falcons are wildcard team (switched, but right idea)

Cardinals win NFC West (oops)

Packers win NFC North (injuries, but still made the playoffs)

Eagles win NFC East, Cowboys are wildcard team (yes, and oh boy no)

Colts win AFC South, Texans are wildcard team (yes, and whoops)

Chargers win AFC West, Chiefs are wildcard team (Chargers were as good as I thought, but just didn’t make it. Chiefs were even better, but had the wins I thought they would)

Ravens with AFC North (I thought the Steelers would fall during Ben’s suspension, which didn’t happen)

Patriots win AFC East (Had that easy, I actually underrated the Jets even though I think they are overrated in general)

-I hit 4 out of 6 NFC teams, and the same for the AFC, so 8 of 12 playoff teams. Not bad, but could have been better.

Predictions after the 1^st 4 games:

Future Success for Bucs and Lions: WIN

-I am willing to call this one a win now, especially considering their end of season successes this year. The Lions have the 1^st 4 game win streak since before the Matt Millen Era, and the Bucs got to double digit wins and almost made the playoffs. Their futures are bright.

Sam Bradford success: WIN

-13 weeks ago, I said Bradford would be a success but probably not quite make the playoffs. Well, that worked out. And, they should be very success in the future.

Chiefs as playoff team: WIN

-I actually picked them as a playoff team before the season, and that worked out great. The young talent has developed well, and they secured their both. I don’t know how long it will last into the postseason, but even this experience is great.

Playoff Predictions from the Preseason:

NFC Title Game – Packers over Saints, 37-28

AFC Title Game – Ravens over Patriots, 31-24

Super Bowl – Packers over Ravens, 34-17

-Ravens are good complete team, but the team can’t quite beat Packers in a shootout, even with a healthier secondary.

-All Predictions still active, we’ll see. I would now rather have the Pats/Packers or Pats/Saints, but you never know. I would feel good about having to stand by these.

BLISS