NFL 2010-2011 Wildcard Week Predictions

Wildcard NFL predictions:

Final Rankings

My top 8:

1. New England – Best regular season team, by far. One of the best ever, statistically, just behind the 2007 Pats. Check the DVOA at footballoutsiders.com.

2. New Orleans Saints – Still the Champs, have beaten the #1 NFC seed in Atlanta this year, and get Seattle in the first round. Just saying.

3. Pittsburgh – I still say injuries derail them, but I cannot argue with the results.

4. Baltimore – I don’t trust Flacco in the post season, but this is a great team overall. Dangerous.  

5. Atlanta – A solid, solid team. The record is partly due to having the 10^th easiest schedule, but hey, 13 wins is 13 wins.

6. Chicago – I am not sure how long this lasts (probably until Cutler has his trademark “blow up” game), but it has been a good ride.

7. Green Bay – Injuries aside, if they get past Philly (and I think they will), they can be dangerous.

8. Indianapolis – I am going to take flack for taking them over Philly, but Vick looks so worn down and the Colts’ run defense is somehow awesome. And, I’ll take Peyton Manning in the playoffs over Vick (or Sanchez) any day.

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Arizona – They need a quarterback in the worst way. Orton? McNabb? Favre?

30. Cincinnati – Congrats Bengals, you deluded yourself for another year that Carson Palmer is good.

31. Denver – Welcome to the Tim Tebow, 6-10 every year, 45% completion percentage, era.   

32. Carolina – Andrew Luck would be stupid to give up guaranteed millions, even if it means coming to Carolina. They aren’t so bad. They have RBs and a decent line, so Luck could do worse.  

Wildcard Picks:

New Orleans -10.5 over Seattle, 30-13, under 45

-So, I thought about this for a while. And I wavered. Let’s get one thing straight: The Saints are winning this game. There is just no way the defending Champions with the Sportsman of the Year loses to a 7-9 team with either an old bad QB or a young bad QB. So, let’s move on to discussing the point differential.

10.5 points makes me nervous. That is a lot of points. I can completely understand not liking this game and moving on. The Saints put a few players on IR this week. Quest field is awesome. Seattle just had a very emotionally uplifting win.

However, here is how I see this playing out. The Saints score their normal 20-24, and the Seahawks just won’t be able to keep up. They scored 16 points on an overwhelmed and less talented Rams team. The Saints are just too well coached, and have decent to good defensive talent. The Seahawks will throw themselves into trouble trying to keep up, and the Saints will run away with it.

Packers +3 at Eagles, 30-27, over 50

-Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are fine playing in the cold, and although Vick got a “bye”, he is still beat up and worn down. I don’t trust him in the playoffs, and I see Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams shutting Jackson and Maclin down. This will still be a shoot out, and probably within a score.

In the playoffs, I go with coaching and quarterback play. For the first NFC game, Brees>Hasselhurst and Sean Payton>Pete Carroll. For the second Rodgers>Vick and McCarthy>Reid (we know one mind bending challenge is coming from Andy, right?).

Ravens +3 over Chiefs, 23-17, under 45

-I respect the Chiefs. I have pumped them all year. But here is the problem. Charlie Weis is half out the door. Cassel is beat up and falling off. They have negative playoff experience. I don’t have faith in the defense to cover Mason and Boldin down the field. And I trust Harbaugh more than Todd Haley, though I don’t think the difference is that profound. The Ravens have enough talent to simply dominate this game, and I think the coaching will be better too. Oh, and Dwayne Bowe? Meet Ed Reed. Get cozy.

Also, I don’t want to see the Chiefs in Foxboro under any circumstances.

I will say, if Jamaal Charles doesn’t touch the ball 25+ times at least, then Haley can’t pull the “saving his legs” argument anymore. I think he will, but that it won’t matter. Ravens win pretty decidedly.

Colts +3 over Jets, 27-20, over 43.5

-So, these teams played in the AFC title game last year. And, the Colts won.

So, what has changed? The Colts are a little worse on offense. They have a few less receivers. The running backs are about the same. The defense is better against the run, worse against the pass. Manning is still Manning.

The Jets are about a wash passing the ball. Sanchez makes more plays, but makes more bonehead mistakes with more changes. Thomas Jones for LT is about a wash, though overall they are less committed to running the ball and are doing it less efficiently. The defense is still decent, but has less edge and injuries have hurt some.

So, without a major change, and the game in Indy, I see Manning going out to a lead and Sanchez blowing up trying to keep up. LT can’t be productive, and the team only keeps it under double digits by a late score.

Good luck everyone!

Record last week:

Straight up: 7-3

Against the Spread: 5-5

Record this year:

Straight up: 131-51

Against the Spread: 104-89

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 249-129
Against the Spread: 204-175

BLISS