NFL 2013 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Colts -2.5 over Chiefs, 21-17

-The Colts are getting right at the correct time. FootballOutsiders has them at the lowest odds of winning the whole thing. While I get why the numbers support that, and that there is little chance of the Colts advancing past the title game round, I think this is a solid bet right now. The Colts have the Ravens ‘13/Packers ‘11 mojo of a strong start, dropping off toward the end of the year, young QB breaking into the elite, and looking good at the very end of the regular season. The Chiefs are going the wrong way, are getting out schemed, and have some injury concerns. In the playoffs, it often comes down to the team with the better QB so often, and the Colts are winning that battle.

Saints +2.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I know, I know. The Saints aren’t any good outdoors/on the road. Well, we have no idea how these Eagles will be in the playoffs at all, and we know Brees and co. can win a Superbowl. Again, I am taking the better QB, this one in a little more of a shootout. If the Eagles get a lead though, this is actually probably over early because they will run it all over the Saints. But, I think Brees gets the Saints ahead and stays there.

Bengals -7 over Chargers, 33-23

-This is the game I feel most comfortable about. The Chargers are the second lowest projected FO Super Bowl team and that I can agree with. I picked the Bengals to make the Superbowl, and still feel okay about that despite the Hall and Adkins injuries. Green and Gio both go off in a big Cincy win. One year too early for the Chargers, who will draft heavily on defense and develop next year.

Packers +2.5 over Niners, 24-16

-This will be the third time in a 365 day span these two teams have played, a rarity for non division opponents. They know each other well, and are in very different spots than the first time. I think this is the matchup where the Packers flip the script. When they met last January, the Packers were the established offense and the Niners the upstarts who were newly developing an offense around a QB who only had a few starts. Now, the Niners have been rolling (successfully?) with their offense for a year plus, while the Packers were a pass team that became a run team with a different QB and now have gotten their All-Pro QB back for good. And if at any point, the Packers have learned how to stop Colin K and that rushing offense, now would be the time to implement it. Here is a thought: stop Davis and Boldin. They caught 20 of Kaep’s 21 TDs this year. That limited offense, with a think an almost worn out Frank Gore, gives the Packers the victory. And if Aaron Rodgers is allowed to get hot, watch out NFC.


As for the overall picture, the best prediction for the Superbowl is the boring one: Seattle over Denver. I really don't see anyone else besides maybe the Packers winning the NFC. The AFC is coming down to the Broncos, Pats, and maybe the Bengals. I like the Pats' chances, but the injuries are probably too much. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 118-68
By Spread: 96-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 657-351
By Spread: 533-465