NFL 2013 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Pats +5 over Broncos, 28-24

-This is purely a function of the points. I originally saw this at 6.5, but obviously people bet that down as quickly as possible. One thing I know for sure…ignore the game they played 8 weeks ago. Gronk, Chris Harris, Von Miller, and quite a few others players aren’t playing now. John Fox, Champ, Blount, and so many others ARE now playing as key cogs and weren’t then.

I was stunned when looking at FootballOutsiders this week though. They have the Pats as a 46% chance to win this game, which is a crazy high number. I thought it was going to be a 60-40 split at best. But the Week 19 DVOA doesn’t lie. NE actually ranks above DEN right now in DVOA, 31.5 to 27.2. A huge advantage is special teams, but they are competent in all three areas.

Look at how the offenses line up. As much as the Pats are beat up on offense, they are playing a strings and spit defense in Denver, who just lost their best corner. The all time scoring leading Denver offense (which barely put up 24 last week) is playing a team with its 3 really good corners back playing together. NE can hold this together, fully execute San Diego’s plan of holding the ball and pushing it down Denver’s throat. Brady over Manning, one more time please. You know, until they get trampled in the Super Bowl by….

Seahawks -3 over Niners, 17-9

-This will probably be a painful, insanely unwatchable game. I think Colin Kaep self destructs. Both GB and CAR had opportunities to make him do so, but couldn’t. This Seattle defense will not allow easy passing. What gets me really ticked is that the SF passing game is really good when throwing to Boldin, Crabtree, or Davis. But that’s it. Literally no one else can do anything. They caught all of the SF touchdowns this year, and Crabtree only had 1! Seattle just won’t allow that kind of focus on a few guys, will take 2 away (probably Sherman-Crabtree, Earl Thomas-Davis, and three guys on Boldin then), and make the Niners sputter here. And I have a feeling Russell Wilson finds the magic here again.

SF is a really healthy advanced stat team, with the best remaining special teams (8.9) and a strong defense (-5.2). But FootballOutsiders makes my case for me: Seattle’s defense is a whopping -29.1. That blows Arizona’s -18.9 out of the water for second place, and they are a far distance from third. I had Seattle winning the whole thing in August, and I am staying on that train. I have to think the NFC is winning regardless though.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 2-1

Record this year:
Straight Up: 123-71
By Spread: 99-96

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 662-354
By Spread: 536-469