NFL 2010 Week 17 Predictions

WEEK 17 NFL predictions and statements:

Well, I didn’t do great last week, but it was a week where teams came out and established who they truly were. We can see a much clearer playoff picture ahead.

I also want to state my following top 10 reflect those teams that will likely be in the playoffs. See, I still believe the Chargers are one of the better teams in the league (and the stats back that up), but I cannot include them. So, let’s do it:

My top 10: previous ranking in parentheses

1. New England (1) – Win or lose in the finale, this is the best regular season team.

2. New Orleans Saints (5) – That’s right, I said it! The Saints are the second best team. They just beat the former second best team, despite playing like crap. And they are still the defending champs. If somehow they get home field, watch out.

3. Pittsburgh (3) – I still don’t like it, but they win.

4. Baltimore (6) – This team is technically sound, and has a decent shot at the 2 seed. But, they share Atlanta’s issues with killer spirit.

5. Atlanta (2) – See Baltimore.

6. Chicago (9) – Hey, give them credit. The defense is for real, and Cutler is playing well. If they can play exciting offense in bad weather, they can win anywhere. With a week off for the defense to heal and Martz to work for another week with the offense, this team can get much better. If Atlanta or the Saints have to come here for the NFC Championship for some reason, the Bears can legitimately go to the Super Bowl. Or, you know, blow up spectacularly.

7. Green Bay (NR) – I am still petrified at the injuries, but this is a dangerous team with Aaron Rodgers slinging it around. I winch because I believe that this team could have rolled to the Super Bowl with the injuries they have had.

8. Kansas City (10) – Congrats to them for jumping this high. It shows what good coaching and good run differential can do. And a QB that doesn’t throw interceptions. What team does that sound like?

9. Philadelphia (4) – Still dangerous, also likely to fall apart due to injuries to their exciting but slight players.

10. Tampa Bay (NR) – I thought of Indy, Jets, and the Giants for this spot, but Tampa Bay, while not a probably playoff participant, has played really hard despite so many injuries. They have rounded into form, and will grow by leaps and bounds next year. I predict the NFC will be the best division by far.

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Arizona (29) – They won, but the problem was it was with two freak defensive TDs. They have a lot of work to do.  

30. Cincinnati (NR) – The T-Ocho Show!  

31. Denver (31) – Tim Tebow? Really? Well, that dooms them to 6-10 for a few years.  

32. Carolina (32) – Andrew Luck would be stupid to give up guaranteed millions, even if it means coming to Carolina. They aren’t so bad. They have RBs and a decent line, so Luck could do worse.  

NFL 2010 week 17 picks:

I am dividing my picks into two groups: ones I feel like I can substantiate by reason and ones I just have to guess at because it involves people sitting, which may be predicated on early games. I am not holding myself accountable for the second group.

Group 1:

Falcons -15 over Panthers, 34-10

-Jimmy Clausen is the only thing standing between the Falcons and a bye/division title/1 seed. And it is in Atlanta. And I’m not sure John Fox is even coming with Carolina to the stadium. His office might already be empty.

Baltimore -9.5 over Cincinnati, 28-13

-Ravens still have a shot at it, and Cincy is dead. Carson cannot replicate that.

Chiefs -3.5 over Raiders, 28-20

-This does affect seeding, and the Chiefs will stay sharp. If they fall behind, I could see Cassel sitting.

Steelers -5.5 over Browns, 24-14

-Steelers need to sow up the #2 seed and bye. They need that bye. I understand the Browns play them tough, but really.

Bucs +7.5 over Saints, 24-30

-I see a cover here, but probably not a win for Tampa. Saints take care of business in case Atl slips up.

Houston -3 over Jacksonville, 27-7

-Crazy score right? Well, no Mojo, Garrard, etc, etc. Houston tries to send us off well.

Giants -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-7

-Rexy cannot handle Tuck and Co. Giants are still mathematically in it, and will roll this game.

Colts -9.5 over Titans, 31-10

-They have to win, and the Titans will invent new ways to give up the game.

Packers -10 over Bears, 31-17

-Packers firm things up as the Bears lie down. I think.

Rams -3 over Seahawks, 24-17

-Seahawks will try, but the Rams are better and deserve it more. I am 90% sure the NFL wants an 8-8 playoff team over a 7-9 one. We will see. I hope for Sam Bradford he makes it in.

Group 2:

Jets PK over Bills, 20-13

-Jets backups are better than the Bill's backups

Patriots -4 over Dolphins, 24-13

-This might be a lay down game, but I think New England wants win 14 (they’ve gone to the Super Bowl in every season they’ve gotten at least 14 wins, winning in 03 and 04. And Chad Henne is terrible.

Lions -3.5 over Vikings, 21-17

-Ugh. Lions seem to care, and they are at home.

Cards +7 over 49ers, 21-20

-Why does Vegas love the Niners again?

Chargers -3.5 over Denver, 29-17

-Chargers are really good. Denver is not. I don’t believe in Tebow. But, well, who knows?

Record last week:

Straight up: 7-7

Against the Spread: 8-6

Record this year:

Straight up: 124-48

Against the Spread: 99-84

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 242-126
Against the Spread: 199-170

BLISS