NFL 2010 Week 13 Predictions

WEEK 13 NFL predictions and statements:

Here we are: week 13. For the NFL, it is mostly an ordinary week. For fantasy owners it is a key week. This is the week most leagues end, and you move to the playoffs or go home. Luckily, key teams have clear matchups. They are also spread out so we can watch a entire slate of fantasy relevant games.

To those of you on the bubble for a playoff spot, or a first round bye, good luck. I am lucky enough to be among you in 4 of my 6 leagues.

These rankings are now settling in, and staying consistent. I am expanding my top 8 to a top 10, to include some rising teams.

My top 10: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. Atlanta (1) – Chugging along, and winning good games. However, if New England beats the Jets this week they will almost certainly jump them.  

2. New England (2) – The Jets are the last test.

3. Baltimore (3) – Big test versus the Steelers to essentially claim the division.

4. New Orleans (4) – They are moving along, and survived a tough Thanksgiving game versus the Cowboys. The 4^th best team should whomp the Bengals. We’ll see.

5. Green Bay (5) – They will overcome Chicago soon, and this will be the team from the North. Still, fundamentally flawed.

6. New York Jets (NR) – I cannot ignore 9-2, even if there last 4 wins were pretty lucky. I think the Patriots knock them out of this spot.

7. Chicago (NR) – They keep winning, and the defense is for real. If they can throw the ball this well in the future, this is really tough team to go against.

8. Pittsburgh (8) – They won, even if it wasn’t pretty. If they lose to Baltimore, they are off this list. If they win, they jump into the top 5. If isn’t the impact of this one game entirely: we just need to see them versus a real team.

9. Kansas City (NR) – This team keeps winning, and has found a passing identity. They need to hold off number 10. I am not sure how viable that is.

10. San Diego (NR) – They are, pardon the pun, charging full power. Rivers is quickly moving toward an MVP.

On the Bubble: Philadelphia

Dropped Out: Giants, Colts

At this point, 4 teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. 3 of the 4 are in my bottom 4. I will still take Buffalo over Denver, especially with the effort versus Pittsburgh.  Arizona is approaching this category quickly.

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Cincinnati (29) – Carson Palmer, wow.

30. Detroit (30) – Without Stafford, this has gotten bad.  

31. Denver (31) – Tim Tebow time soon!

32. Carolina (32) – They are putting forth effort, but man, this is just not a good team, and I’m pretty sure the coach is checked out.

NFL 2010 week 13 picks:

Falcons -2.5 over Tampa Bay, 24-17

-They are clearly about a touchdown better than Tampa, which struggles versus good teams.

Buffalo +5.5 over Vikings, 23-24

-At least a cover, and a win would not surprise me. The newness of the coach will wear off soon, and Peterson may not be close to healthy.

Bears -3.5 over Lions, 24-13

-This is a game where Chicago takes care of business because they are a playoff game. Yes, I said that.

Denver +9.5 over Chiefs, 24-27

-Denver can score, so they will cover. Chiefs will win this game they need though, and I see the first extended Tebow sighting. Also, OVER.

Saints -6.5 over Bengals, 33-14

-Has no one noticed what has happened to these two teams the last few weeks? Saints rolling, Bengals failing, and…..6.5 points. Prediction: this line ends up near 9 because the sharps pound it. Eliminator pick….

Jacksonville +3.5 over Titans, 21-16
-Um, because Jacksonville is apparently good? I don't even know what to say. However, when a team is hoping a half dead Kerry Collins can get into the game, I think it is pretty much over. Did Randy Moss get cut yet? Definitively take the points.

Packers -9.5 over 49ers, 31-13

-Packers get in a grove, 49ers are useless. Also, Brian Westbrook breaks a hip.

Giants -6.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-13

-Another line that should creep over 7. However, if this one does, take notice. The Redskins are not as good as the Giants, but the Giants are wounded. The Giants are a good pick, but be careful.

Chargers -13 over Raiders, 36-10

-Chargers are rolling, and that defense is coming together. The Raiders are also falling apart. As a New England fan (we have the Raiders pick, and I want no part of Kansas City in the playoffs with Charlie and Romeo), I am excited to see the Chargers roll them.

Seahawks -6 over Carolina, 17-7

-Let’s just move on.

Colts -5 over Cowboys, 31-20

-Colts don’t lose three in a row, don’t lose in late afternoon or evening games, and the Garrett Era newness will wear off at some point.

Rams -4 over Cardinals, 27-10

-Not sure the Cardinals can score. Pretty sure the Rams can. I think that means the Rams win. RAMS TO THE PLAYOFFS! YES WE CAN!

Ravens -3 over Steelers, 28-24

-Flacco outduels a hurt Big Ben, and Suggs gets multiple sacks picking on the replacement LT for Pittsburgh.

Patriots -3.5 over Jets

-The Jets have been overly lucky and the Pats have been growing. Thus, in a battle of 9-2 teams, the edge goes to New England. This is also in New England. Sanchez will not get the best of Belichick twice in one season.
UPDATE: Jim Leonard was hurt today in practice and will not play. This affects the NE offense in a positive way because the Tight Ends are so good. The line may drift too, because sentiment is running so high for New England already. 

Record last week:

Straight up: 12-3

Against the Spread: 9-6

Record this year:

Straight up: 89-30

Against the Spread: 67-63

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 207-108
Against the Spread: 167-149

BLISS