This is going to be a wild Thursday night.
I am so excited. There will be high scoring, high octane athletes, and a pumped up crowd. This has some implications down the line for the playoffs, but really is just an exciting regular season game. We could have seriously out of the ordinary stats going up. Fantasy owners will be on the edge of their seats. Phoenix-Golden State is going to be awesome!
Wait, you thought I was talking about something else?
Right, Houston-Philadelphia is on tonight. Because it is on the NFL network, I forgot for a minute. Much of the same arguments apply. It will be high scoring. Houston is terrible defending the deep pass, so this could be an aerial show. Philly can take a hold of a playoff spot with a win tonight, and Houston knows it needs a win to even be considered for a spot, though the AFC South is more wide open than it has even been.
Oh, still thinking of something else?
Right, that Lebron guy is going somewhere tonight. Cleveland? Didn’t he used to play there? I think they may have been pissed off about it or something like that.
Okay, I’ll ditch the mocking tone. This game should be fascinating. It is fascinating in a way sporting events rarely are. The point result almost doesn’t matter. A Cleveland win would be nice for the fans, but if Lebron has a bad game and gets clearly affected by the crowd, they would so take that. The win or loss would mean little for the overall picture. This isn’t deciding any playoff spots, and the HEAT are no longer in any kind of race for 70 wins. Also, despite Miami’s struggles, it is clear which team is more talented.
I found this story really interesting this morning: http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/14387010/heat-flight-lands-safely-in-cleveland-after-reporting-trouble. I found it strangely ominous for tonight’s game. Everything is warning Lebron from returning to Cleveland tonight. It is going to be bad. Bill Simmons tweeted last night that a scandal would break out if Lebron “got hurt” in Detroit and was magically unable to play. That didn’t happen but I wouldn’t have been surprised. Lebron ducks out on his other commitments, why would this have been any different?
Dan Gilbert has garnered a lot of attention this year. He was fined for his letter and reaction to Lebron leaving Cleveland, and I supported Gilbert in his emotion. He had a right to be mad because this whiny kid wanted to go play with his friends. He has spent 300,000 dollars on investigations into collusion, and I support his right to do that too, even if Stern would never do anything about it. However, here I have interesting divergence of opinion from the general population.
I actually do not believe there was collusion. Now, I think Bosh was planning to go to Miami the whole time. He did have a conversation with Wade about it, and collusion was there between Wade-Bosh. It would have been Kobe-Gasol all over again, and would have worked well. They did reach out to Lebron, but I don’t think they thought Lebron would actually go through with it. Wade admitted that much this week. And while Wade would never admit it, I think it is possible he never wanted Lebron to come. The positives outweigh the negatives so Miami had to take Lebron. However the negatives most affect Wade. He is now in an alpha dog battle against a guy with similar skills to him. He has to fight for it to be HIS TEAM when that hasn’t been questioned since Shaq left. Lebron and Kobe are perhaps the only two players who really could have laid claim to the HEAT being their team, and that is exactly what happened. Lebron came in, and as Wade ages and declines (he is injury prone, 28, and has a lot of damage on him), it will become Lebron’s team.
If Lebron had gone to New York, Knick-HEAT games would have been epic. I think Wade is like Kobe in that he is motivated to take down the other alpha dog. The problem is, the HEAT’s competition in the East is compilation teams. The Celtics are made up of several good players, no real top 10 players. Same thing is true for the Magic. Though Howard is really good, Wade is not going to match up with him. The Bulls could be a good matchup for Wade (Rose, ownership of Chicago), but that is a matchup that really features Lebron over Deng. I think one of the most understated parts of this season is Wade’s lack of motivation and silent frustration with the transformation he “asked for” but is not really enjoying.
The other thing is, had Lebron gone to NY, we would have had a much better league. We would have three teams in the East with dominate slashing players (Lebron, Wade, Rose) and secondary power forward scorers (Amare, Bosh, Boozer). As Boston and Orlando fade, we would have 3 interesting teams, well matched, in three good cities. Any of them are good matchups for the Lakers as well. It is really too bad.
It is also funny what this has done to Lebron’s legacy. He was a top 3 player in the NBA for talent, was on pace to become a top scorer in NBA history, if not the top scorer. It was obvious when he was on the court. He radiated dominance, and all eyes focused on him. Now, #6 just looks like another player. As Bill Simmons says, “Lebron on TV isn’t a mandatory viewing anymore”. He is a top 10 player, even if his talent has not dropped. His stats have gone way down. Somehow, despite the better players around him, his looks being better, and his energy being up, his % are way down. He is no longer on pace to break all kinds of scoring records. Lebron might have mired himself in a nightmare where he isn’t going to win a title OR be the best stat guy ever.
Even when Boston declines, Chicago may rise up and be a better team because their construction is better and Rose/Boozer/Noah matchup well with Arroyo/Bosh/Joel. Even if they figure it out and win say 2 titles in four years, it will be because of Wade, not Lebron. He will be always remembered for that. Think of Kareem’s half dozen titles. He is celebrated, but those are Magic’s titles. And Lebron won’t sniff 6 rings. Same thing with Pippen and Jordan, which may be the perfect comparison.
So, back to tonight’s game. CLE has all the tools to win this game. Mo Williams is a perfect matchup for this team, and Jamison-Varejao will dominate Joel Anthony-Bosh. If you don’t see Bosh disappearing in this game, you haven’t been paying attention. I think Jamison throws up 25 on Bosh, and Varejao puts up 12 and 18. Cleveland will clearly shake Lebron. I almost don’t care if they do something really vile, and disagree with ESPN arguments that this will turn him into a victim. I am not sure anything can turn him into a victim. This will be a big test, because in the playoffs, Orlando and Boston will test the resolve of the HEAT. They will torture Lebron and Bosh will be tested in his inner strength.
So, Cleveland wins a close one, 101-97. Lebron bricks free throws near the end, and Mo Williams is huge. Cleveland erupts and Lebron is escorted all the way to a plane, running away and being shielded yet again.
In the NFL, Philly explodes, but Houston keeps pace enough to cover late, 38-31. Do remember Houston’s defense has improved 120 yards a game since the defensive coordinator has come to coordinate from the sidelines. It should help a bit, and Mario Williams is one of 6 guys who can outrush and control Mike Vick (Trent Cole, Freeney, Mathis, Peppers, Tuck). I have no confidence that Philly covers 9.5.
As for where I started? Phoenix beats Golden State, 121-115. Nash erupts with 20 assists, and Hakim puts up an awesome 25-10 on David Lee trying to defend him. Remember this is a big game for Jason Richardson too (his time with Golden State, great matchup with Monta trying to defend him, contract year push). He should hit 4 3’s minimum. When it comes to the actual value of sports matchups, this is my game of the night.
So, you might ask, which of these games I am so invested in and intrigued about am I watching? None of them. I am having Hanukkah dinner with two wonderful friends and catching up on Glee. I am a complex man. Oh, and I can catch highlights (and probably the second half of Phoenix-Golden State). I may also be watching my phone all night waiting for some report of Lebron running away crying. Feel free to send me impressions as you are watching.
Enjoy!
BLISS
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