Tuesday, October 19, 2010

NFL Slants for Week 6

Sorry they are a bit late, busy week.

Checking Down:
-The Lions will be much better when they get Stafford back. They have mastered the “throw it to Calvin” offense though. No reads or anything
-The Pats have to be in the top 5 discussion right? I feel like I am blinded by being a tremendous homer, but I think Pittsburgh is the best team, and Baltimore beat Pittsburgh, and NE beat Baltimore…
-My concern is this: I see like a scenario where Pitt/Bal/Indy/NYJ/NE all make the playoffs. This is like 90% likely at this point. That would only leave the AFC west champion (more appropriately named the AFC survivors) as the sixth playoff team from the AFC. Sorry Houston, screwed again.
-In the NFC, I’ll take the Saints and Eagles to get in….and that’s it. No idea on the rest.
-By the way, the odds for the Super Bowl are AFC -3.5 over the NFC, no matter the teams. I gave you the AFC teams two posts above. You buying any team in the NFC except maybe the Saints can beat any of those five more than twice out of ten times. Those are good odds to take friends.
-Houston, that defense was terrible. I love the heart you showed to come back (and nail my prediction from last week of Chiefs+4.5 but winning the game), but without DeMeco Ryans, they have no chance to stop anyone.
-Chicago….I don’t even know what to say. The defense is playing okay, the special teams is great, Cutler wasn’t very accurate but he was effective. Forte had only 8 touches in the run game, that number has to jump. I just don’t know what to make of this team. I think Cutler will get beat up/the pass game won’t be as effective in the December games. However, they can win this division.
-Green Bay is in trouble. Write it down now, Vikings win the division (and lose in the first round).
-Giants win a game they should, and the Osi-Tuck combination proves it can win games by itself.
-Your second leading rusher in the NFL behind Arian Foster? Ahmad Bradshaw. Who had that in the preseason, Arian Foster and Ahmad Bradshaw? Put your hand down!
-So, Philly is good now? At this point 9-7 might get you a bye in the NFC so who the hell knows. Of course, they have a great win but lose their best playmaker and now have a QB controversy again.
-Pittsburgh looks scary. Harrison should be fined and suspended for his hits though. I just cannot root for Big Ben, he just doesn’t deserve it.
-STL! I have so much pride for calling Bradford’s emergence a month ago. He has been awesome, best rookie QB in a long time. STL being 3-3 is awesome, and they can seriously win that division. At 7-9. And perhaps get a bye.
-New Orleans finally laid a butt kicking on a team, and we think Tampa is pretty good too. The game clearly showed the Bucs need a young stud RB. The Saints got the downfield mojo back. They have the potential to emerge as the class of a weak NFC with the return of Pierre, Bush, and Sharper. Atlanta doesn’t seem to want that title.
-Denver showed good heart. The Jets should have lost that game. Pass Interference should be 15 yards in all cases. That is significantly fairer than what happened to Denver on that play.
-SF beat a bad team, but at least it was something. They are still alive, and Alex Smith just needs a Singletary pep talk every game to get going. At least Mike is doing something on the sidelines now.
-Indy still doesn’t look dominant, but I give credit to McNabb for developing an offense with no true stars and no star back. Perhaps we have somehow underrated him. Hall of Famer though, right?

Going Deep:
-So, MNF was terrible. Titans at Jacksonville is not your marquee matchup to begin with. But Chris Johnson, Mojo, and Vince Young are somewhat exciting. However, the game’s pace was slow. We lost Garrard and Young to injuries. While neither is Manning like in putting up huge numbers, offenses normally look better with starters running them. So, the teams look horrible. We have 55 year old Kerry Collins and Trent “wait, I’m not in Buffalo anymore?” Edwards flinging it around. Furthermore, the two elite backs were bottled up.
Bill Simmons tweeted something along the lines of there being a handshake deal between Bud Selig and the NFL, “Oh, MLB playoffs are on? We’ll give you TEN-JAC that night”. It certainly seems like that could be true. That was among the worst NFL games I have ever seen, and I have seen many. I was flicking over to Pawn Stars on the History channel instead of watching. I will say that having Chris Johnson get a carry on 4th and 5 while up 20 with a minute left and ripping off a 35 yards touchdown was stupid, inconsiderate, showy, unnecessary, and also won me a fantasy matchup this week and almost a second. So, it was totally allowable.


-SD’s collapse is so hard to peg. Here they are still the best ranked team in the league. http://www.realgmfootball.com/src_wiretap_archives/18907/20101019/nfl_power_rankings_after_week_6/
They create yardage, stop people, and score a ton of points. They control the line, and have good talent. However, they are 2-4. They can easily come out of this and end up 10-6 or 11-5. They have done it 4 straight years. The division is not very good, and the Raiders might actually just say “you know what? We aren’t even going to play. Just take the W, we’ll all go home healthy”. (Somewhere Al Davis is saying, “Wait, we are playing football now?”)

I don’t buy those who say the lack of Vincent Jackson, LT, and Merriman is the problem here. VJax really only broke out last year. They managed their success with 35 year old Keenan McCardell and Chris Chambers at WR for years. LT hasn’t been LT for years in San Diego: that isn’t the problem. Merriman has barely played the last two years. Thus, how could they really have been missing these guys that badly? I think they do pull out of this, they are too talented and the division too ripe. However, it is still troubling. I will also say had Marty Schottenheimer stayed as head coach, or they had gotten someone better than Norv to replace him, they probably would have won a title or two the last few years. Not that Norv is terrible, he is not. He is just not elite.


Rankings and prediction columns coming up soon.


BLISS



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