So this was an interesting week. I nailed some predictions entirely (Steelers 28-10, Chiefs losing but covering), and totally whiffed on the Charges among others. However, something I have noticed that is clearly affecting my stats is the number of close games this year. I am winning pure picks 2-1, but am coasting just under .500 against the spread. At some point we will have separation, it has to happen.
This week is fun because 4 strong fantasy offenses are off. It could be a fairly subdued week.
My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis
1. Pittsburgh (5) – I don’t see how any other team goes here. They won convincingly, and Big Ben clearly makes them better than what they were without him.
2. New England (6) – I know, it’s a homer pick. But, I almost put them number one. See, they beat Baltimore, my previous number one. Baltimore beat Pittsburgh, who is my number one right now. They have one loss, to the team I have number 4. I mean, that makes them at least the second best team, right? They seem to be coming together. And, they remind me of the 2003 Pats. That’s a good thing.
3. Baltimore (1) – Still perhaps the most complete team, top to bottom. They also beat Pittsburgh, and I think that they will eventually win the AFC North too.
4. Indianapolis (3) – They didn’t impress me a whole bunch, but they won and I am giving them significant credit on history.
5. New York Jets (6) – They don’t impress me, but they are winning. And, honestly, the passing game really hasn’t clicked like it could.
6. New Orleans (7) – They finally laid a butt kicking down last week, which is exactly what was needed. I see them and Atlanta as the class of the NFC, and whoever wins the division and thus gets home field the favorite. However, the fact it took until team 6 on this list to get to an NFC team tells you all you need to know about the situation between conferences.
7. Atlanta (2) – They did have a good 4 game stretch, and it could have been just an off game. The run game doesn’t look right, the pass game has no kill switch, and the pass defense is horrible (and now loses Dunta Robinson).
8. Philadelphia (NR) – I hate the QB controversy…just let Kolb play, he is a real QB. Otherwise, the offensive is explosive even though two players have injuries. The defense is growing. In the AFC? They’d have 8 wins and they’d miss the playoffs. In the NFC? 1st round bye.
Fallen out:
Chicago (4) – They can be better, but losing to Seattle with Cutler playing okay is not good at all.
My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis
29. Cleveland (NR) – San Francisco is simply better than this team, so they jump out of the basement and Cleveland falls here.
30. Oakland (NR) – Fire sale should have happened.
31. Carolina (30) – And then there was Matt Moore again.
32. Buffalo (32) – This team is dangerously on line for 0-16. That defense has no skill or motivation.
NFL 2010 week 7 picks:
Falcons -3.5 over Bengals, 28-20
-Falcons will bounce back in a game they should win. The only fear is that without Dunta Robinson the Falcons DBs go from “marginal” to “terrible” really quickly. So, expect a big fantasy day from TOcho.
Bears -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-19
-Because the Bears should be almost back to full strength. At home. Against Donovan “I take 6 minutes and 12 plays to score in a very important situation” McNabb. And because I just don’t believe in the ‘Skins yet. I probably never will.
I have no idea on the Eagles-Titans game, but I love the over 43 bet.
Saints -13 over Browns, 31-10
-The Browns have no WRs, and Colt McCoy is still a rookie QB. I’d take 14 points too.
Rams +3 over Bucs, 20-19
-Sam Bradford impresses me, and the Bucs are going to come back to earth at some point. And the march to the NFC West title starts now for the Rams. That’s right, I said it. I believe in these Rams and their star WR, Donario Alexander! Ok, I’m done.
Ravens -13 over Bills, 38-13
-McGahee could get a 100 and a TD in relief here, as the Ravens beat up on the Bills in an easy one at home. The Bills are looking like 0-16 could be a possibility. Ravens will be refocused, and walk here easily.
Chiefs -9 over Jaguars, 27-10
-The Jags have no QB. They also can’t stop the run. Any more questions?
Cardinals +6.5 over Seahawks, 20-23
-I give the Cardinals some credit for having 3 wins (even if it might be the worst 3 wins this side of the Jags). Seattle wins but the line is too large. Max Hall isn’t great but he’ll be competent. He understands the “throw it to Larry” offense well.
Patriots +3.5 over Bolts, 31-28
-Chargers could win, but the Pats will at least cover. I see another Pats-Ravens, with the difference being the Ravens are better than the Bolts, but the Pats aren’t at home this time. Normally I worry about the East Coast going West, but it is a 415 game. Also, I love the over on this game, no matter how high it fluxes. This should be entertaining. Bill vs. Norv is just a mismatch.
Raiders +9.5 over Broncos, 21-20
-The Broncos are a better team and should win. However, their greatest strength in pass defense is aligned against the league second leader passer. I see a slower paced game with more Moreno and the run game, and a late rushing TD by Oakland getting the win for Oakland.
Vikings +2.5 over Packers, 27-24
-The Packers are really beat up, and now Driver might be out. The Packers are reeling from overtime loses and their injuries. I don’t see how they account for Adrian Peterson in their game. Packers can win this game, but mostly likely the Vikings, being the ones who need it more, get the victory.
Oh yeah, and Brett Favre has a grudge against Green Bay, or something like that?
Cowboys -2.5 over Giants, 31-17
-Cowboys need it more, Giants are a fake 4-2 team. Dallas Special Teams will be a difference maker. Probably a good first half by both teams, and then an ugly end to the game with Eli throwing it everywhere but into receivers’ hands and the Cowboys unable to run out the clock because their O-Line cannot move anyone.
I really like using Kansas City this week as an Eliminator Pick. Good week to use up one of these mid level teams. For a surer thing, take the Saints over Cleveland.
Record last week:
Straight up: 9-5
Against the Spread: 7-6
Record this year:
Straight up: 39-20
Against the Spread: 26-34
Lifetime record:
Straight up: 157-88
Against the Spread: 127-119
Straight up: 157-88
Against the Spread: 127-119
BLISS
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