NBA 2010-2011 Season Preview Deluxe
Another exciting NBA season is upon us. Never has a season had this much intrigue. Almost every team (sorry Minny) has something exciting to look forward to this season. I am going to run through my favorite picks for this year.
Great Odds
Blake Griffin for ROY, 2-1
-Some places it isn’t even 2-1. The only real competition is John Wall, and he may take some time to develop/share the ball too much. Blake is a beast, and should dominate.
Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant for MVP, 4-1 and 2.5 to 1
-It won’t be Lebron, so someone has to win. These two guys make the most sense. Durant is the best pick because he is a darling and will lap the league in scoring, but the Thunder may not be a completely elite team and the Lakers are. If Kobe is even slightly better than he was last year (and he can be, especially with even a slight FG% and assist bump), and the Lakers again have the best record, he could win the award quite easily. Both are good bets.
Nash for MVP, 40 to 1
-Not likely to happen. However: A. 40 to 1 is insane odds for someone who has won it twice before. B. If the Suns are good, it will be because of Nash. People love “new team/rising team guy who make them better” MVPs. C. He will get a lot of the fan appreciation sentiment, and the NBA people really love him too. Considering the insane return, not a bad speculative add to your list.
Linas Kleiza over 12.3 ppg
-I know, random, right? But, hear me out. Linas averaged 11 ppg in Denver two years ago. In Denver, he was at best the 5th option. Now he’ll be the 2nd at worst. He got better playing overseas. He rocked the World Championships, probably the second best player behind Kevin Durant there. He is now going to be playing in a Euro style team he is used to, with a running offense and jump shooters with the green light. He’ll get all the playing time and shots he could ever want, and might get 6 ppg just in threes. Just by volume of shots, he should hit this: I can see 17 ppg from him easily.
Amare over 23.3 ppg
-More mainstream this time. But, this is just as good a wager as Kleiza. Amare already scores about this much. However, his new team will focus on getting him shots like never before. The Suns in the Mike D’Antoni era had other good options too, and while Amare got used a lot, he was either young, alongside Shawn Marion, or coming off an injury. He was always NBA 1st team level good, but did not get maximum usage at maximum health. Now, he will get that. He won’t have Nash, which is truly a downgrade now matter who the PG is (sorry Ray Felton, it’s not you…actually, it is you). However, I think the PG play around him affects his FG%, not his PPG. His attempts will increase 20%, and he could push 26 ppg again. Also, Amare isn’t bad for 35-1 MVP picks.
Blake Griffin over 8.5 rebounds per game
-The only reason he won’t get this would be injury. Have you seen this man crash the boards? He plays like he hates the ball and the backboard. He might push 12 boards a game. Last time I looked everyone loved this bet so much the moneyline was -150. So, the return isn’t great but it is pretty close to a sure thing.
Kevin Love to win rebounding title at 8-1 odds
-Okay, so I expect the rebounding title to come down to Blake, Love, and Dwight Howard, who has won it the last few years. Here is why Love will win it. Blake is still a rookie (well, you can argue he is not, but you know what I mean), and he still has Kaman to suck up at least 9 boards a game from him. He will get hurt, miss some games, and still needs a bit of experience and technical work. 10 for sure, but you need like 13 to win the title.
Dwight is a good bet to win it, but I don’t think he will. Here are my reasons why:
A. He has won it in consecutive years, and not many have done that before. There is a reason for that.
B. He is actually focusing on scoring more this year, and while it won’t change who he is, it may cost him perhaps a board per game (say .5 an offensive board a game too because he will actually be shooting the ball)
C. Stan Van Gundy is on record saying he is going to use Gortat and Bass way more than last year, and both will suck up 4 boards a game minimum if played at all. Rashard will be a SF more this year, creating a big lineup where more people can rebound instead of it being just Dwight.
So, that leaves Love. His rebounding rate is ridiculous. He has averaged 9 and 11 boards a game in his first two years. He played under 30 minutes a game last year. That number will jump by at least 20% as his coaches aren’t stupid (his GM on the other hand….). Also, Al Jefferson and his 10 boards a game are gone. Love will soak up rebounds, and he seems to have a 14 board a night season in him. For 8-1 odds? Take it.
Golden State Warriors over 30.5 wins
-They seem to be feisty, and have a real team put together. I am not sure Curry-Monta-SF X-Lee-Biedrins gets you a ring, but it will definitively get you 35 wins. There will at least be continuity.
Miami Heat under 64.5 wins
-It is hard for good teams that have gelled together and have depth to get 65 wins. The odds just say they have an injury to one of the stars, an injury to a backup, and take a little time to gel completely. They also have weaknesses at PG and C, not at all positions that can be ignored. I am not being stupid: this team will win 57 games minimum. But 65 is a big number. Take the under. Plus, you know you want to root for this.
New York Knicks over 35.5 wins
-Book it! This is one of the easiest picks. There is an actual team in MSG this year. Other than Amare, the cast is not significantly better than it was before. However, they all now believe they are the team of the future, and the parts seem to fit better. Mike D’Antoni is still a top 5 coach and will be able to unleash his offense fully. At worst, they are entertaining 38-44 team, but I think they can get to .500 and a decent 5 game series versus Miami or Orlando before being sent home.
Oklahoma City Thunder over 51.5 wins
-This is not that different than they were last year, but now they add a year of growth from all players and Cole Aldrich. This team is so versatile it is sickening. Westbrook is among the best defenders at his position, and can play 3 positions. Durant can play 3 for sure, and 5 in emergencies. They can go super small with Maynor-Westbrook-Thabo-Green-Durant or super big with Westbrook-Durant-Green-Ibaka-Krstic and still have their best 3 players on the court at all times. They also added better 3 shooting and veteran leadership in Mo Peterson. Expectations are high, but 54-28 is safe.
Phoenix Suns over 41.5 wins
-The Suns have been over 48 wins every year for 6 years. Nash has won 48 games a year for 10 straight years. They may not be elite anyone, but Nash can will them to 45 wins, bare minimum. Also, this team has better defined roles than people think. Robin Lopez will be better and a real center. Channing Frye will serve his backup 4 and 5 spot well, coming in to shoot threes. Jason Richardson will be working hard to get a new contract. Goran Dragic can be a good backup point guard who will preserve Nash. The only issue is the 4 spot, because they have so many SFs. However, they do have some decent larger SFs that can work a system that has always produced results from some odd positional assignments (if they can succeed with Boris Diaw at center they can make Warrick work at PF) . Hedo is also so versatile he and Grant Hill or he and Warrick can go offense defense at the 3-4 and make it work. This team may surprise and be a feisty 6 seed that takes Portland or Oklahoma City to 7 games.
Awards
MVP: Kevin Durant, runner up Kobe Bryant
-Durant is a media darling and got the gold medal this summer. As long as they improve in wins and Lebron doesn’t put up 70 wins and a triple double, it is Durant’s award to lose.
Most Improved Player: Kevin Love, runner up Jrue Holiday
-He could put up 19-13 as the featured player, and also got a gold medal. He is also a great passer for his position, and will get a ton of usage.
Comeback Player of the Year: Gilbert Arenas, runner up Hedo Turkoglu
-Gilbert will put up 20 ppg with 5 rebs and 5 assists, is now fully healthy, and will help John Wall develop. Also, he didn’t rape anyone, shoot anyone, or commit a major crime against an animal. Was he an idiot? Yes. However, America forgives if they are crimes other than what I stated above. Actually, they forgive some of those crimes too.
Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, runner up Ron Artest
-Dwight is just easily the best. He may lose a little focus because of his offense, but not much. Artest is not a bad bet because he can focus solely on defense and shooting threes. The Lakers brought in more SFs to play, and he will be more comfortable in LA after a year.
Rookie of the Year: Blake Griffin, runner up John Wall
-Blake will have huge numbers and the Clippers should be better than the Wizards. Book it
STAT TITLES
PPG - Kevin Durant-33.4, Kobe Bryant-28.5
RPG - Kevin Love-13.2, Dwight Howard-12.6
APG - Deron Williams-11.7, Chris Paul-11.1
SPG - Rajon Rondo-2.6, John Wall-2.3
BPG - Dwight Howard-2.4, Josh Smith-2.3
FT% - Ray Allen-94.5%, Steve Nash-92.7%
FG% - Al Jefferson-61%, Dwight Howard-59.9%
3PT - Danilo Gallinari-210, Stephen Curry-190
TO - Steve Nash-305, Monta Ellis-287
FOULS - Roy Hibbert-310, David Lee-301
Season Preview
Finals: Lakers over Celtics, 6 games
Conference Finals: Celtics over Heat, Lakers over Jazz
Semi Finals: Celtics over Magic, Heat over Chicago, Lakers over Portland, Jazz over Thunder
Comments:
-I like the Lakers to take their last opportunity to win a title under the current conditions. The Celtics have a perfect team to take out the Heat (advantage at PG, defenders for Lebron/Wade, 3 diverse options at center, Garnett can contain Bosh and score with him). The Jazz have a less athletic team than last year but have much better role players. Raja will be able to stop Westbrook in the playoffs, and Kirilenko will be able to slow Durant. The Thunder will have no answer for Al Jefferson in the playoffs. Deron Williams emerges and leads the Jazz on a deep run, and gets Al Jefferson to play at a very efficient rate. Portland-Lakers is an epic series, but Andrew Bynum wins the “I am less hurt than you” battle with Greg Oden and the Lakers finish them.The Lakers have too much depth and size up front for the Heat to deal with, and Pau will punish Bosh in the post. Artest and Kobe may be the best two defenders for Lebron and Wade, and Matt Barnes will help there too. Kobe scores 30 a game in his last big playoff series, and wills them to victory.
And, of course, Kobe Bryant is the Finals MVP.
Good luck to everyone in fantasy, have a great hoops year!
BLISS
No comments:
Post a Comment