NFL 2010 Week 4 Predictions

So, week 3 has come and gone. We are revving up for what I call the “real season”. Weeks 4-10 of the NFL schedule are my favorite. No one has won anything significant yet, and no one has lost anything significant yet (Do we really think the 0-3 49ers are out of it?). Some teams are still finding their identities. There is still time to fix a major problem with a team. Over the next 7 weeks, teams will be made. We will get the “feel” of the 2010 Packers, Patriots, etc. Vegas has at this point decided what teams are and aren’t, and lines will be set off of these impressions. Personally, I will make my decision by about week 10 as to my favorites for the playoffs and Super Bowl.

Weeks 4-10 is also the most key time for fantasy. Here is where the micromanaging becomes important, as byes happen. You have to make decisions on your pre season sleeps: most of the time it is either to play them or cut them, there is not much bench room. The bulk of your record is made up during this time, and you have a pretty good idea after week 10 if you are going to be dancing or watching college bowl games during December.

I am starting to see what these NFL teams are about, and my top and bottom 5 are as follows:

My top 5: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. Indianapolis (4) – I know Pittsburgh is undefeated, but Indy is just rolling. They clearly are the best team playing right now. And, I am not sure Big Ben’s return in two weeks might not a DISTRACTION for the Steelers.

2. Pittsburgh (NR) – Clearly the second best team thus far. I hate doing the whole “give them points for having an inferior QB.” However, how they are playing right now even with Charlie at QB is still 2^nd best in the league.

3. Chicago (5) – Undefeated, and a serious threat. They can soak up wins in that division, especially after getting 1 from GB already. Martz keeps them in games, and maximizes the talent they have. I like the defensive speed, and also the special teams which can boost them.

4. New Orleans (1) – Still dangerous even if they are missing key parts. However, the injuries (especially to Brees) scare me. They’ll be fine, but Atlanta could win the division.

5. Green Bay (2) – The lack of running game is pretty painful. I still like my GB Super Bowl pick, but the key for this team is to stay ahead. If they score early, the defense (especially Woodson and Matthews) feasts on mistakes. This team can look dominant or hover with the game’s score tied.

Honorable Mention: Kansas City, Houston, Atlanta

My bottom 5: previous ranking in parenthesis

28. Buffalo (32) – They did show effort, but they really need Mallet.

29. Cleveland (28) – Just bad, but they did try. Why is Jake Delhomme coming back?

30. Oakland (30) – Just Oakland, just now their hopes are up for Gradkowski.

31. Jacksonville (NR) – So, Trent Edwards time? Almost as bad as Bruce Gradkowski time.

32. Carolina (31) – Just terrible. Two best players play the same position. Just give them 20+ carries each. At least the games will be over more quickly.

Seattle rises a few spots, Jacksonville takes a plummet.

And now, the picks are in.

NFL 2010 week 4 picks:

Ravens +2.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-This will be close. However, I just think Flacco versus Batch in a close game, 2 minute drill type situation, vastly favors the Ravens. Too bad Big Ben wasn’t here, these are always good games.

Titans -6.5 over Broncos, 27-13

-The Titans are better, and Broncos do not match up well. Chris Johnson should bust out here. Great line, it may creep over 7 though.

Packers -14 over Lions, 38-17

-The Packers need a “get right” week, and there are the Lions. The Lions are trying really hard, but they need a bye week in the worst way. When they get Stafford and Best back at full health, they’ll be more competitive. For now, this might get ugly.

Saints -13.5 over Panthers, 33-13

-Panthers are terrible. If the Saints are missing Pierre Thomas or the line jumps 14, think again. If the Saints miss Brees, then expect a closer Saints win, but no cover.

Jets -5.5 over Bills, 20-13

-In the no man’s land of 4-6.5 points, but should be a solid Jets win. I think LT and Shonn Green have good games, and the Bills are unhappy to pull off what they did last week.

Colts -7.5 over Jags, 31-14

-I would follow this all the way past 10. The Jags are terrible, the Colts are good. I know the Colts traditionally have problems in Jacksonville, but this isn’t the same team. And MoJo is not 100%.

Texans -3 over Raiders, 28-19

-The Texans do have a legitimately awful secondary, but really, Bruce Gradkowski, really? The Texans are much better, and they know they have to win the easy games because the division games are so hard.

Chargers -8.5 over Cards, 31-20

-The worst 2-1 team takes on the best 1-2 team. It is time for things to equalize. The Cardinals cannot hang with the Chargers, especially with some practice squad players making up the bulk of the ARI WRs. The Chargers should force some serious turnovers from Derek “fling it down the field somewhere within 20 yards of a WR” Anderson.

Eagles -5.5 over Redskins, 23-13

-I love Bill Simmons. But, I have no idea why he likes the Redskins so much. They aren’t good, and the Eagles are at least good enough. DeSean Jackson could have a huge game again.

Bears +4.5 over Giants, 30-27

-The Bears are for real, and I am pretty sure the Giants are not. In a game of scoring, the Bears can keep up better. If they play from behind, they will at least cover. If they get ahead, they will trounce the Giants. Either way, Bears get it.

Patriots -1.5 over Dolphins, 27-23

-The Pats need this game vitally to get some identity and stop the rise of the Jets and Fins against them. I really do think they are better. Brady does normally hate Miami, and it is one of his worse games every year, but I think they will be okay. This makes sense as a game where Moss goes off for big yards.

Record last week:

Straight up: 8-3

Against the Spread: 5-6

Record this year:

Straight up: 17-4

Against the Spread: 9-11

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 135-72
Against the Spread: 110-99