Parity, parity, parity. I am hitting 750 in pure wins, but 333 against the spread. I noticed the parity also when putting together my top and bottom 8. Let’s see how this week goes.
My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis
1. Green Bay (5) – They won, and that is what counts. Eventually, they will find somewhat of a running game, and then they will be nearly unstoppable. Charles Woodson is a hall of fame talent.
2. Baltimore (NR) – All they needed to show was that the QB could step up. Point proved. Also, Ray Rice isn’t nearly 100%. They’ll get better once he is.
3. New Orleans (4) – Like GB, they won. Also, they WILL get a firm running game back. I know Ivory and Betts ran okay, but Pierre pass blocks, run blocks, and catches so well, his loss hurts them. Brees will find his rhythm soon.
4. Houston (7) – They run it so well, their pass game will be awesome once Andre is back at 100%. I also have the return of Brian Cushing on defense as key to raising their bottom ranking on that side of the ball. He covers the TEs, pass rushes, and limits backs catching passes from the backfield. With Ryans, Cushing, and Diles, they have an awesome LB core now intact.
5. Atlanta (8) – Playing well, I am waiting for them to really explode putting it all together. This week should be a trouncing of the Browns. We’ll see.
6. Indianapolis (1) – They never could stop the run, but it is the injuries that worry me. The WRs and secondary are getting bashed, and those positions always covered for line and LB deficiencies. I am sure they will bang out 10 wins. However, it could be only enough to get ousted in the first round.
7. San Diego (NR) – A good team, so talented and vibrant. Rivers makes this team succeed. If they could get something for Jackson (Mankins from NE?), and shore up the pass rush, they can excel.
8. Pittsburgh (2) – A good team, but I just don’t know. The defense cannot win by itself, and although Ben helps them, the O-Line and WRs aren’t that great. I see a 10-6 season, but the Ravens are the better team just in their own division.
Honorable Mention: Kansas City (6) – they are a nice young team, but I think Indy handles them this week. A win over the Colts would force me to put them in the top 6.
Fell out: Chicago (3) – Cutler means too much to them, and even that should be an indication of their status.
My bottom 8: previous ranking in parenthesis
25. Jacksonville (31) – Just not impressed, no faith in the pass rush or QB. They did let a receiver run up 196 yards on them.
26. Arizona (NR) – They were 2-1, but they got 7 points versus SD and needed about 3 times that many. They are who we thought they were. Good luck Max.
27. Cleveland (29) – They did win versus Cincy, but they is not quite the feat we thought, and they let up 222 yards to 45 year old Terrell Owens.
28. Seattle (NR) – Yeah, the Rams are an okay team, but seriously?
29. San Francisco (NR) – The team is not this bad, but they just don’t play together well. See, you need a coach who is either a great team chemistry creator or a great X and O’s guy. They have neither.
30. Carolina (32) – A for effort, but this team is just not good. Explosion out of both their backs still got them a loss. Without Smith, this is even worse.
31. Oakland (30) –Run DMC now hurt, this could get ugly. Cable survives until week 10? I’ll take the under.
32. Buffalo (28) – This might be the only week to avoid 0-16.
And now, the picks.
NFL 2010 week 5 picks:
Bucs +6.5 over Bengals, 17-20
-The Bengals really need this game. However, that probably means 3 point win. Owens also used up all of his energy last week.
Falcons -3 over Browns, 33-13
-Dear Falcons: I do believe in you. The win over the Saints was nice, even if you did pay Garret Hartley to kick that badly. However, you must blow out a bad team when you get them on the schedule. If you do, I will fully back your claim as an elite team. Thank you for your time.
Jags PK over Bills, 21-17
-I know, this is the Bills chance to avoid 0-16. However, I just think the Jags are better.
Colts -7 over Chiefs, 28-20
-Chiefs try really hard, but if you think the Colts are losing this game, you don’t watch football.
Rams +3 over Lions, 20-16
-Lions without Stafford still makes the difference. If the line is still 3.5, take that because this should be close at least. Pretty sure the Rams are a better team. I am also sure Sam Bradford is already better than Stafford, Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, or Jason Campell EVER were. He might hit his first 3000 yards game.
(Side note: Peyton Manning had 3700 yards and 26 TDs with 28 INTs his rookie year. Bradford can replicate that, right?)
Packers -2.5 over Redskins, 31-17
-I mean, the Redskins aren’t that good, right? They just hurt Vick and McNabb played on emotion last week. And the Packers are really good, just need a kick.
Ravens -7 over Broncos, 30-17
-The Broncos have no running game, and the Ravens are going to embarrass them. Of course, Orton will have 300 yards regardless.
(Side note: Imagine if the record book for most passing yards was: 5. Brady (2007), 4. Warner (2001), 3. Brees (2008), 2. Marino (1984), 1. Orton (2010)? My head hurts.)
Texans -3 over Giants, 24-20
-Cushing inspires the defense, and Eli falls apart. Also, the Giants will not be able to run because Bradshaw is hurt and the other option in Brandon Jacobs.
Cowboys -6.5 over Titans, 27-17
-Chris Johnson does break a big one, but it doesn’t matter. The Cowboys are better, and need this. I would love to see how they cover Austin, Bryant, and Williams. Actually, I am excited to see how they don’t.
Saints -7 over Cardinals, 24-13
-Max. Hall.
Chargers -6 over Oakland, 33-10
-The Chargers are getting in gear, and are a much better team. Ryan Mathews has a big game here, but Gates gets shut down by double coverage and/or Nnamdi Asomugha.
Vikings +4.5 over Jets, 24-21
-I don’t trust Sanchez, and think they get him to throw a few picks slash the Vikes also stop the running game. I think Moss either lights up Cromartie if Revis doesn’t play, or Revis if he does. Favre goes sandlot, but it works. The Vikings need this game much more.
Record last week:
Straight up: 8-4
Against the Spread: 5-7
Record this year:
Straight up: 25-8
Against the Spread: 14-21
Lifetime record:
Straight up: 143-76
Against the Spread: 115-106
Straight up: 143-76
Against the Spread: 115-106
BLISS
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